{"id":226308,"date":"2025-06-25T11:34:45","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T15:34:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226308"},"modified":"2025-06-25T11:37:48","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T15:37:48","slug":"fed-heads-play-the-apprentice-while-tariffs-lurk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/fed-heads-play-the-apprentice-while-tariffs-lurk\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Heads Play The Apprentice While Tariffs Lurk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>While the market flirts with fresh highs, Fed officials seem more focused on auditioning for the next administration than cutting rates. Steve Sosnick joins Andrew Wilkinson to unpack the drama, from Powell&#8217;s tightrope walk to the tariff threats hiding just offstage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Fed Heads Play The Apprentice While Tariffs Lurk\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=m5gva-18e9299-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-271\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 271<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock market is stretching towards fresh highs despite a seemingly devastating geopolitical backdrop. And back in the never-dull world of U.S. politics, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is facing the wrath of the President via Truth Social. Welcome to the program, IBKR\u2019s Chief Strategist, Steve Sosnick.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you so much, Andrew. Great to see you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Likewise. Steve, how deep do you believe the divisions within the FOMC are regarding the urgency to cut interest rates?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-0\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think they&#8217;re somewhat deep. I do have to wonder if, at some level, this isn&#8217;t the latest round of <em>The Apprentice<\/em>, where certain Fed governors are lobbying to be hired and not fired when the Chairman\u2019s term is up. And so I think that\u2019s probably why Christopher Waller\u2019s statements were geared to an audience of one, let&#8217;s say. And Michelle Bowman has done basically an about-face\u2014which, everybody\u2019s entitled to change their mind, believe me, that\u2019s well within her prerogative. But I do have to wonder if, at some level, there isn\u2019t a little bit of an attempt to curry favor with the President.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And so I think in some ways, that probably hardens Powell\u2019s resolve, because I think he does not want to be seen that way. One of the great\u2014like the third leg of the dual mandate\u2014is: don\u2019t be Arthur Burns if you\u2019re the Chairman. And that is, don\u2019t do stuff politically that might be perceived terribly by history. I think that\u2019s probably the direction they\u2019re leaning in, especially with all the uncertainty regarding tariffs\u2014basically tariffs at this point, since oil\u2019s kind of been taken off the table.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We will talk about both tariffs and oil in a second, Steve, but I wanted to bring the audience right up to date. We&#8217;re recording today&#8217;s episode\u2014Wednesday the 25th\u2014just at the market open. It&#8217;s amazing, don\u2019t you find, how a near all-out war following the U.S. \u201cAll on Iran\u201d has stoked fresh buying across the stock market? Why do you think the bulls are charging so hard right now?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-1\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Because they never really left. They took a break. Geopolitics is more of an excuse than a rationale, when you think about it. Short of an all-out war involving the U.S.\u2014okay, that would be problematic\u2014but geopolitics matter to the extent that U.S. companies are affected by them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So if there was an oil shock\u2014yeah, that obviously stinks. And that was where you saw the VIX tick up a bit, where you saw the markets take a pause. Beyond that\u2014and this is something I\u2019ve written fairly consistently on\u2014otherwise, stock investors think in terms of the stuff that moves stocks: revenues, earnings, cash flows. And how is this going to affect those factors that come into market valuation?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this case, obviously oil is the big wild card. If Iran did something in the Straits of Hormuz, then obviously everybody\u2019s earnings, dividends, cash flows, etc., get affected. Otherwise, Iran is not part of the global economy. It hasn\u2019t been for decades. Yes, they ship oil to Russia and China, but basically there are no multinational companies that one\u2019s able to trade in an easy manner that do business directly in Iran.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Israel is a part of the world economy. But if you\u2019re thinking about the multinationals that do business there\u2014which is pretty much all of them\u2014it\u2019s not a significant piece of their bottom line. Microsoft has&#8230; I\u2019m sure there\u2019s business there; I don\u2019t know to what extent, but it\u2019s probably a rounding error, considering just Israel\u2019s relative size in the world economy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once the oil pressure got out of the way, please feel free to resume your places on the dance floor.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Are you surprised by the response in the crude oil market following the Iran bombing?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-2\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes and no. I think we never really got to panicky levels. It became fairly clear that it was going to be almost as detrimental to Iran as it would be to anybody else\u2014cutting off your nose to spite your face kind of thing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But you did have this momentum rush up in oil. And when crowded trades end\u2014I\u2019m looking at you, tech stocks in April, by the way\u2014they end hard. You had a situation where everybody became an oil analyst for two weeks, and now we\u2019re back to being AI analysts full time.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Steve, tariffs have taken a back seat. Do you believe that the distraction of the Israel-Iran conflict changes anything on the trade front?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-3\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Not really. I think there are some political pundits who\u2019ve said the U.S. involvement was as much a \u201cwag the dog\u201d thing to distract from tariffs and the \u201cBig Beautiful Bill,\u201d which is actually polling at relatively homely levels.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So I don\u2019t know. But I think, basically, we can\u2019t lose sight of the tariffs. The market has basically fully baked in the notion that they will either be extended or just kept at 10%\u201410% plus 30% for China\u2014and this is what we\u2019ll live with. I don\u2019t think the market\u2019s ready for another surprise if it turns out that the deadlines do not get moved once again. The market\u2019s pricing in moving goalposts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not going to use the term for one of my favorite Mexican snacks involving the type of trade that it is, but that\u2019s largely what\u2019s priced in\u2014either something\u2019s going to get resolved in about a week and a half (which seems unlikely), or the goalposts get moved again. And there is some precedent for that. That\u2019s where the market has led us.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Having said everything in this episode, do you think we\u2019ve now seen the back of the elevated volatility levels for 2025?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-4\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Nope. Absolutely not. Think of the things we\u2019ve just discussed. Okay, so we\u2019ve moved the geopolitics out of it. But I think the market again has gotten very sanguine about the idea of rate cuts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pretty much, that\u2019s actually the norm too, right? The market\u2019s almost always pricing in more rate cuts than the Fed is willing to deliver. Just think about the beginning of 2024\u2014\u201cWhere are my eight rate cuts?\u201d We got four. So now we\u2019re pricing in two. Maybe we get two, maybe we get one, maybe we actually get zero. A lot does have to do with the tariff structure.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And realistically, the person in charge is a volatile guy. And part of his governing strategy is to keep people guessing. Keeping people guessing <em>is<\/em> volatility. That\u2019s where it is.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just as with anything else\u2014\u201cbuy the dips,\u201d I do think, works in volatility as well, especially since it does tend to be a bit mean-reverting. It has some mean-reverting characteristics, actually even more so than stocks. You start to see it around 16 or 17, which is where we\u2019ve found a reasonable low. I\u2019d rather be a buyer than a seller at those levels.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Brilliant. Steve Sosnick, thank you for joining me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-5\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>My pleasure, Andrew. Take care.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-6\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>If you haven\u2019t already subscribed, remember to do so wherever you download your podcasts from.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the market flirts with fresh highs, Fed officials seem more focused on auditioning for the next administration than cutting rates. Steve Sosnick joins Andrew Wilkinson to unpack the drama, from Powell&#8217;s tightrope walk to the tariff threats hiding just offstage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":226311,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[16187,446,6988,314,5172,15769,570,850,10676,6014,10995,1504,4979,16363,11121,16328,199,7077,15074],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-226308","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-andrew-wilkinson","10":"tag-federal-reserve","11":"tag-financial-markets","12":"tag-fomc","13":"tag-geopolitical-risk","14":"tag-ibkr-podcasts","15":"tag-inflation","16":"tag-interest-rates","17":"tag-jerome-powell","18":"tag-macroeconomics","19":"tag-market-volatility","20":"tag-monetary-policy","21":"tag-rate-cuts","22":"tag-steve-sosnick","23":"tag-stock-market-analysis","24":"tag-stock-market-rally","25":"tag-tariffs","26":"tag-trade-policy","27":"tag-u-s-economy","28":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed Heads Play The Apprentice While Tariffs Lurk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"While the market flirts with fresh highs, Fed officials seem more focused on auditioning for the next administration than cutting rates. 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