{"id":226296,"date":"2025-06-26T10:00:32","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T14:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226296"},"modified":"2025-06-27T03:44:05","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T07:44:05","slug":"tracking-strong-dividend-increase-trends-amid-macro-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/tracking-strong-dividend-increase-trends-amid-macro-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Tracking Strong Dividend-Increase Trends Amid Macro Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Fed\u2019s on hold, Middle East turmoil persists, and economic conditions at home may turn worrisome<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Companies also voice concern, but their actions appear to be more bullish<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Q2 tracks for a multi-year high in the percentage of net dividend increases<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As we put the finishing touches on a first half that was littered with uncertainty, a small treasure is seen in global dividend trends. Thirty percent of the companies Wall Street Horizon tracks announced shareholder-payout increases in the second quarter\u2014the best Q2 mark going back to 2021. Also, just 9% of companies from around the world slashed their dividend, which was the lowest in three years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-healthy-dividend-hike-rate-in-q2\"><strong>Healthy Dividend-Hike Rate in Q2<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"776\" height=\"505\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/250623-WSH-DIVs.png\" alt=\"Healthy Dividend-Hike Rate in Q2\" class=\"wp-image-226433 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/250623-WSH-DIVs.png 776w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/250623-WSH-DIVs-700x456.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/250623-WSH-DIVs-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/250623-WSH-DIVs-768x500.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 776px) 100vw, 776px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 776px; aspect-ratio: 776\/505;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Wall Street Horizon<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These continue strong numbers that we profiled&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wallstreethorizon.com\/blog\/Dividend-Hikes-Offer-Optimism-Amid-Tariff-Turmoil\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">earlier in the year<\/a>. It also bodes well for the balance of 2025, despite so much macro uncertainty (there\u2019s that word!). Indeed, now more than ever, it\u2019s important to pay attention to and deeply analyze what those in the C-suite are doing versus what they are saying. Investors have heard the constant refrain of \u201cmacro headwinds\u201d and \u201can uncertain economic landscape\u201d ad nauseam, but all the while, corporations continue to churn out profits, buy back shares, and, yes, hike dividends (on net).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upshot? Investors must seek signals and dismiss the noise.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More dividend payouts mean investment teams need to adjust stock prices to reflect these corporate actions properly in order to conduct time-series analysis. TMX\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tmxinfoservices.com\/investment-data-and-analytics\/investment-analytics\/pac\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Price Adjustment Curve<\/a>\u00a0(PAC) provides price adjustments applicable down to tick level prices or even orders, and below you can see the number of recorded adjustments for North American dividends have been steadily increasing. H1 2025 recorded 17,509 such price adjustments (as of June 22, 2025). With one week left in the second quarter that number is on track to match or beat the first half record set in 2024 of 17,771 price adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"751\" height=\"465\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/250623-TMX-PAC.png\" alt=\"Price adjustments for North American Dividends\" class=\"wp-image-226432 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/250623-TMX-PAC.png 751w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/250623-TMX-PAC-700x433.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/250623-TMX-PAC-300x186.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 751px) 100vw, 751px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 751px; aspect-ratio: 751\/465;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: TMX Datalinx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Accurately tracking and analyzing these crucial corporate actions, such as dividend changes, at scale presents its own set of challenges. For asset management and risk professionals, manual processes and fragmented data systems can obscure insights and increase risk. To explore this topic further,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/us06web.zoom.us\/webinar\/register\/4317507035136\/WN_APptvt2DRfOwJu4qkaG7Tg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">join our Data Minds webinar tomorrow<\/a>, Wednesday, June 25, at 10 a.m. ET. Industry experts Judith Gu of Scotiabank and Armando Benitez of BMO Capital will explore how transforming corporate action workflows can provide the edge needed in today&#8217;s fast-paced market. They will delve into the role of automation in driving timely investment insights, share real-world case studies, and discuss best practices for aligning stakeholders through integrated systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-listen-to-that-baby-purr-caterpillar-plowing-ahead-in-2025\">Listen to that Baby Purr! Caterpillar Plowing Ahead in 2025.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Earlier this month, Caterpillar (CAT) announced a 7% dividend increase, bringing its quarterly distribution to $1.51.<sup>1<\/sup>&nbsp;An S&amp;P 500<sup>\u00ae<\/sup>&nbsp;Dividend Aristocrats Index member (companies that have raised their dividends in each of the past 25 consecutive years), the all-American brand is one of many multinational corporations facing the threat of higher tariffs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shares are merely flat on the year, but gains off the April 8 closing low have been massive, on the order of 30%-plus. The sellside is still gaming out how the future trade landscape will impact CAT. In May, the $168 billion Industrials-sector firm was upgraded to Hold from Sell at UBS amid improving US-China trade talks.<sup>2<\/sup>&nbsp;Then, on the same day the Texas-based blue chip announced its dividend hike, BMO Capital Markets tagged CAT as a GARP candidate (growth at a reasonable price).<sup>3<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the stock is a far cry from its late 2024 all-time high of $419. Resting right now at its flat 200-day moving average, the bears might argue it\u2019s a dead-CAT bounce. Time will tell, but it appears the company\u2019s management team is just fine with where it\u2019s positioned heading into H2 2025.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, Caterpillar\u2019s Q2 earnings date is Tuesday, August 5, BMO (confirmed).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-unitedhealth-group-assessing-the-damage\">UnitedHealth Group: Assessing the Damage<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Turning from Industrials to the Health Care sector, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is battling through what may be the most tumultuous year in its five-decade history. Shares are down 39% year to date, underperforming the S&amp;P 500 by more than 40 percentage points on a total return basis. Before 2025 began, the tragic murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson last December heightened public and investor scrutiny of the company.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, in its January earnings report, higher-than-expected medical costs, particularly within its Medicare Advantage business, resulted in a soft FY 2025 profit guide.<sup>4<\/sup>&nbsp;Investors didn\u2019t like that\u2014the stock fell 6% in the session that followed the Q4 earnings report. That decline was a paper cut compared to the severe pain shareholders endured three months later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UNH plunged by more than 22% after its Q1 earnings release, its worst single-day drop in decades. Near the beginning of the earnings season in April, the company slashed its full-year profit outlook after missing on the top and bottom lines.<sup>5<\/sup>&nbsp;Its medical cost ratio, which is like an inverted profit margin for a health insurance company, was once again above what analysts hoped for. By the time the dust settled, what was once the largest weight in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was among the biggest S&amp;P 500&nbsp;<em>laggards<\/em>&nbsp;in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pain wasn\u2019t done, however. Within a month of their Q1 report, a story surfaced that UnitedHealth was the target of a US Department of Justice probe into possible Medicare fraud.<sup>6<\/sup>&nbsp;Another 11% was shed from the stock\u2019s value, dropping it to the No. 10 spot on the DJIA weighting list at the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The good news? On June 6, UNH announced a $2.21 quarterly dividend, a 5.2% increase from the previous $2.10 quarterly payout.<sup>7<\/sup>&nbsp;Shares, so far, have stabilized above $300 after notching an intraday low of $247 on May 15. Once the biggest company by market cap in the Health Care sector, the embattled insurer faces headwinds and public scorn, but the dividend hike news is a welcome relief for its stockholders.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UNH reports Q2 results on Tuesday, July 29 BMO (confirmed).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-macro-volatility-catalysts-heading-into-q3\">Macro Volatility Catalysts Heading into Q3<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Eyes now turn to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wallstreethorizon.com\/blog\/MA-Watch-A-String-of-Hot-IPOs-Could-Spark-Second-Half-Dealmaking\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the second half<\/a>. There\u2019s still macro wood to chop to help clear out all this uncertainty being bandied about. We expect developments on the trade front with President Trump\u2019s July 9 reciprocal tariff pause deadline in sight. Moreover, the One Big, Beautiful Bill is still being chiseled in the Senate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Higher oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict add yet another wildcard into the macro shuffle, too. All the while, it\u2019s clear that Chair Powell and the rest of the Federal Reserve\u2019s Open Market Committee members are standing pat on interest rates.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be on the lookout for potential volatility this week on the data front. According to our new Economic Calendar, the May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, hits the tape this Friday. Market bulls hope for another tame update on consumer prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-bottom-line\">The Bottom Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Economic surprises have turned south, worries grow about the labor market, and there\u2019s increasing conflict in the Middle East. Amid so much angst and a plethora of unknowns, companies signal optimism, at least according to the high percentage of dividend hikers to slashers. Though the summer travel season is in full swing, investors stay on watch as macro and firm-specific volatility catalysts are front and center\u2014and earnings season is just two weeks away!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on June 24, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wallstreethorizon.com\/blog\/Tracking-Strong-Dividend-Increase-Trends-Amid-Macro-Uncertainty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Tracking Strong Dividend-Increase Trends Amid Macro Uncertainty<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-footnotes\">Footnotes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Caterpillar Inc. Increases Dividend, Caterpillar Inc., June 11, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.caterpillar.com\/en\/news\/corporate-press-releases\/h\/june-2025-dividend.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.caterpillar.com<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Caterpillar upgraded to Hold from Sell at UBS as downside trade risk reduced, Seeking Alpha, Carl Surran, May 16, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4449721-caterpillar-upgraded-to-hold-from-sell-at-ubs-as-downside-trade-risk-reduced\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/seekingalpha.com<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BMO Capital Markets spotlights GARP strategy for 16 industrial stocks, Seeking Alpha, Jason Capul, June 11, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4457328-bmo-capital-markets-spotlights-garp-strategy-for-16-industrial-stocks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/seekingalpha.com<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UnitedHealth Group Reports 2024 Results, UnitedHealth Group, January 16, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.unitedhealthgroup.com\/newsroom\/2025\/2025-16-01-uhg-reports-fourth-quarter-results.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.unitedhealthgroup.com<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UnitedHealth Group Reports First Quarter 2025 Results and Revises Full Year Guidance, UnitedHealth Group, April 17, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.unitedhealthgroup.com\/newsroom\/2025\/2025-04-17-uhg-reports-first-quarter-results-and-revises-full-year-guidance.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.unitedhealthgroup.com<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UnitedHealth Group Is Under Criminal Investigation for Possible Medicare Fraud, The Wall Street Journal, Christopher Weaver, Anna Wilde Mathews, May 15, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/us-news\/unitedhealth-medicare-fraud-investigation-df80667f?gaa_at\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.wsj.com<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UnitedHealth raises dividend by 5.2% to $2.21, Seeking Alpha, Deepa Sarvaiya, June 6, 2025,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/news\/4456203-unitedhealth-raises-dividend-by-52-to-221\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/seekingalpha.com<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Copyright <sup>\u00a9<\/sup> 2025 Wall Street Horizon, Inc. All rights reserved. Do not copy, distribute, sell or modify this document without Wall Street Horizon&#8217;s prior written consent. This information is provided for information purposes only. Neither TMX Group Limited nor any of its affiliated companies guarantees the completeness of the information contained in this publication, and we are not responsible for any errors or omissions in or your use of, or reliance on, the information. This publication is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment, financial or other advice and should not be relied upon for such advice. The information provided is not an invitation to purchase securities, including any listed on Toronto Stock Exchange and\/or TSX Venture Exchange. TMX Group and its affiliated companies do not endorse or recommend any securities referenced in this publication. This publication shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor may there be any sale of any securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction. TMX, the TMX design, TMX Group, Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX, and TSX Venture Exchange are the trademarks of TSX Inc. and are used under license. Wall Street Horizon is the trademark of Wall Street Horizon, Inc. All other trademarks used in this publication are the property of their respective owners.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fed\u2019s on hold, Middle East turmoil persists, and economic conditions at home may turn 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