{"id":226244,"date":"2025-06-24T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-24T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226244"},"modified":"2025-06-24T13:42:23","modified_gmt":"2025-06-24T17:42:23","slug":"trade-opinions-for-tomorrows-new-home-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/trade-opinions-for-tomorrows-new-home-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade Opinions for Tomorrow\u2019s New Home Sales: June 24, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The real estate market has been sluggish as affordability remains constrained by elevated mortgage rates and lofty costs for existing homes and land. Other more specific elements weighing on price growth include high wages and material bills along with economic uncertainty.\u00a0 With that in mind, for tomorrow\u2019s new home sales report, I like buying the \u201cNo\u201d answer at the $435,000 level for the median price contract, since the publication hasn\u2019t printed above that for 13-consecutive months and anecdotal evidence from builders and their respective earnings calls signal a lack of pricing power. Furthermore, I think values will be relatively flat at around the $400K area. I believe the \u201cNos\u201d at $435k and $440K are undervalued at $0.89 and $0.96. I\u2019m staying away from the \u201cYeses\u201d here because it\u2019s possible that we break the range to the downside in light of difficulties with pushing transactions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-FT-6-24-home-sales.png\" alt=\"The median price of new home sales failed to exceed $435,000 for 13 months\" class=\"wp-image-226255 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-FT-6-24-home-sales.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-FT-6-24-home-sales-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-FT-6-24-home-sales-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-FT-6-24-home-sales-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"930\" height=\"90\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-FT-june-24.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if median new home sales price will exceed $435,000 in May\" class=\"wp-image-226256 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-FT-june-24.png 930w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-FT-june-24-700x68.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-FT-june-24-300x29.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-FT-june-24-768x74.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 930px) 100vw, 930px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 930px; aspect-ratio: 930\/90;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"451\" height=\"581\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-FT-june-24.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR Forecasttrader Contract regarding new home sales price\" class=\"wp-image-226257 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-FT-june-24.png 451w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-FT-june-24-300x386.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 451px) 100vw, 451px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 451px; aspect-ratio: 451\/581;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-home-sales-range-trade\"><strong>New Home Sales Range Trade<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I like a range trade for the transaction part of the report which is expected to come in at 690k according to the consensus estimate. But out of the 42 forecasters surveyed in a Reuters poll, no one reported a number north of 760k or south of 610k. My projection is 660k as I think we will see a downside surprise for the month of May. In light of my expectation and those of my economist colleagues, I find the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYeses\u201d at 585k and 610k attractive as well as the \u201cNos\u201d at 760k and 785k. All four contracts cost between $0.95 and $0.96 at the moment. The reason why I believe sales will be supported and not fall of a cliff, is because builders have been disciplined with inventory growth and have generally maintained profitability even as they\u2019ve offered concessions and discounts to prospective buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture4-FT-june-24-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-226260 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture4-FT-june-24-1.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture4-FT-june-24-1-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture4-FT-june-24-1-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture4-FT-june-24-1-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"102\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture5-4-1100x102.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if new home sales will exceed 610,000 in May\" class=\"wp-image-226259 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture5-4-1100x102.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture5-4-700x65.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture5-4-300x28.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture5-4-768x71.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture5-4.png 1186w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/102;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"950\" height=\"91\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture6-3.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if new home sales will exceed 710,000 in May\" class=\"wp-image-226261 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture6-3.png 950w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture6-3-700x67.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture6-3-300x29.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture6-3-768x74.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 950px) 100vw, 950px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 950px; aspect-ratio: 950\/91;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"462\" height=\"576\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture7-4.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader contracts regarding volume of new home sales\" class=\"wp-image-226262 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture7-4.png 462w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture7-4-300x374.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 462px) 100vw, 462px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 462px; aspect-ratio: 462\/576;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 24, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The real estate market has been sluggish as affordability remains constrained by elevated mortgage rates and lofty costs for existing homes, land and construction. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":220585,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2543],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-226244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-new-home-sales","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade 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