{"id":226147,"date":"2025-06-23T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=226147"},"modified":"2025-06-23T11:45:46","modified_gmt":"2025-06-23T15:45:46","slug":"canada-cpi-contracts-thresholds-above-2-appear-undervalued-for-tomorrows-expiry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/canada-cpi-contracts-thresholds-above-2-appear-undervalued-for-tomorrows-expiry\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada CPI Contracts: Thresholds Above 2% Appear Undervalued for Tomorrow\u2019s Expiry: June 23, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada\u2019s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET and the consensus expectation is for a 1.7% year-over-year increase. The projected result would mark an unchanged reading relative to April. But this series has been tougher to predict than CPIs from other developed nations, sporting a greater deviation rate, meaning that the beats and misses alike have been wider than typical. Still, it\u2019s difficult to envision this Tuesday&#8217;s figure arriving north of 2.1%, which would require a 0.5% move in excess of the median estimate at 1.7%. For this reason, I like buying the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=726203945%7C20250624%7C2.1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cNo\u201d <\/a>answers at the 2.1%, 2.3%, 2.5% and 2.7% thresholds, which look undervalued to me and are going for $0.68, $0.83, $0.96 and $0.96. I also think the risk-reward profile of the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the 1.3% level is attractive at $0.96, supported by a Reuters poll of 16 economic forecasters of which the weakest anticipation is 1.5%. Finally, the path to a 1.3% annualized inflation pace is especially narrow in light of recent cost trends and would be the lowest print since February 2021, over four years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-chart.png\" alt=\"The no contract for Canada CPI above 2.1% appears undervalued. \" class=\"wp-image-226148 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-chart.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-chart-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-chart-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-chart-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"176\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/contract-image-6-23-1100x176.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Canada CPI will exceed 2.1% in May 2025\" class=\"wp-image-226149 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/contract-image-6-23-1100x176.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/contract-image-6-23-700x112.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/contract-image-6-23-300x48.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/contract-image-6-23-768x123.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/contract-image-6-23.png 1144w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/176;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S<em>ource for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"570\" height=\"627\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-pricing-FT-6-23.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding Canada CPI\" class=\"wp-image-226150 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-pricing-FT-6-23.png 570w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-pricing-FT-6-23-300x330.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 570px) 100vw, 570px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 570px; aspect-ratio: 570\/627;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 23, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canada\u2019s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET and the consensus expectation is calling for a 1.7% year-over-year increase. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19110,18829],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-226147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-canada-cpi","tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contracts-initial-unemployment-claims","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - 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