{"id":225872,"date":"2025-06-16T12:01:05","date_gmt":"2025-06-16T16:01:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=225872"},"modified":"2025-06-16T14:08:01","modified_gmt":"2025-06-16T18:08:01","slug":"trade-of-the-day-nos-on-tomorrows-retail-sales-and-industrial-production","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/trade-of-the-day-nos-on-tomorrows-retail-sales-and-industrial-production\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade of the Day: \u201cNos\u201d on Tomorrow\u2019s Retail Sales and Industrial Production: June 16, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Following three consecutive months of gains, tomorrow\u2019s retail sales report is expected to reflect a May pullback. The -0.7% month-over-month (m\/m) median estimate is near my projection for a 0.6% contraction, and in consideration of a sharp decline being anticipated, the \u201cNo\u201d<\/a> answers at 0% and above offer favorable risk-reward profiles, in my opinion. The \u201cNos\u201d at 0%, 0.5%, 1%, 1.5% and 2% are currently available at $0.77, $0.82, $0.89, $0.94 and $0.96 and are all profitable on a result as high as 0%, which would require a significant beat of 0.7% more than the -0.7% consensus prediction. Only exceeding the Street\u2019s forecast by a lofty and unlikely 0.8% or more, landing the figure at 0.1% or higher, will lead to losses for \u201cTeam No\u201d at the 0% level. Finally, for those looking for a home run, the \u201cNo\u201d answer at the -0.5% level looks attractive as well, costing just $0.24, and delivering $1.00 back to investors on a modest upside beat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Retail<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Pricing<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTeam No\u201d For Industrial Production<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Industrial production is near record levels but has been cooling off since its year-to-date high in February, driving a deceleration in annualized figures. The median estimate for tomorrow\u2019s print is 1% year over year, meanwhile, my expectation is at 0.8%. I believe uncertainty in the economy last month amidst restrictive interest rates in this capital-intensive space raise the odds of a downside surprise relative to an upside beat. For this reason, I like the \u201cNo\u201d answer at the 1.5% threshold while staying away from the \u201cYes\u201d at the 0.5% level. The \u201cNo\u201d<\/a> at 1.5% offers an attractive risk-reward profile, in my view, costing just $0.82; however, I think the pricing should be ten cents higher at around $0.92. Coming in at 1.6% or above is a tall bar at this juncture considering it\u2019s only happened once in 29 months. That\u2019s what\u2019s required for \u201cTeam No\u201d to lose money here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Industrial<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 16, 2025. Red circle around the retail sales thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Following three consecutive months of gains, tomorrow\u2019s retail sales report is expected to reflect a May pullback. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":185068,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18755,720,1546],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-225872","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contracts","16":"tag-industrial-production","17":"tag-retail-sales","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrade of the Day: \u201cNos\u201d on Tomorrow\u2019s Retail 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/retail-sales-consumer-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=225872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225872\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/185068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=225872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=225872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=225872"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=225872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}