{"id":225618,"date":"2025-06-11T13:09:40","date_gmt":"2025-06-11T17:09:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=225618"},"modified":"2025-06-11T13:15:44","modified_gmt":"2025-06-11T17:15:44","slug":"there-goes-swifty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/there-goes-swifty\/","title":{"rendered":"There\u2026 Goes\u2026 Swifty!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Markets are moving fast\u2014but are investors chasing real value or just the mechanical rabbit? Steve Sosnick and Steve Sears join Andrew Wilkinson to break down the momentum madness, fading volatility, and what could trip up the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"There\u2026 Goes\u2026 Swifty!\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=hcyub-18d3422-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-266\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 266<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors are ever so slowly lifting their heads above the proverbial parapet, buying stocks, and attempting a run at February&#8217;s record highs. Now about four weeks from now, July the ninth, is when the relief to tariffs are scheduled to end in order to give American negotiators and their trading counterparts time to hammer out an America First deal.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This week, Chinese officials are meeting the US team in London. And investors are becoming increasingly optimistic and, as Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick will highlight in this episode, volatility has come screaming off in recent days. And also joining us is Steve Sears, Options Columnist at <em>Barron&#8217;s.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome back to you both.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you, Andrew. Great to see you, Steve.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Good to be with you guys.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Steve Sears, how does the stock market look to you compared to March when you last joined us and just ahead of that spring collapse in stock prices?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The market today looks a little bit frothier compared to the market in March. The market in March, to me, seemed a little bit healthier. Sentiment was mixed, which I thought was constructive for a gain. Of course, there was a bit of a decline, but I believe that was a massive misread of Trump and in reaction to what, at the time, was the Trump administration&#8217;s clumsy handling of the markets. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now I believe that people in the markets understand that Trump remains pro-market, that his plans are pro-market. Unfortunately, too many of them have that view. And thus, I think this gets back to basic sentiment. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sentiment has generally been too positive. I don&#8217;t want to throw out some hackneyed phrase like &#8220;the animal spirits,&#8221; but I think the market mob is a little jazzed up, especially as we are just about to complete corporate earnings season. And the earnings have been better than expected on both the top and bottom line.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;ll throw out a hackneyed phrase\u2014&#8221;flight to crap.&#8221; We see that we&#8217;re seeing a lot of speculative activity. You&#8217;re seeing a lot of stock\u2014you couldn&#8217;t give away the CoreWeave (CRWV) IPO at $40 and now it&#8217;s quadrupled. Which is not to say that it was crap, but just the complete favoring of momentum over fundamentals.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I look at the way the Circle (CRCL) IPO was greeted, again, where you&#8217;re essentially paying a premium to own stablecoins that you could just go buy yourself. But that&#8217;s pretty much the case with any of these crypto treasury-type stocks. Now, Circle itself earns money from their fees, so it&#8217;s not exactly\u2014it&#8217;s not like buying a Bitcoin treasury stock. It&#8217;s a bit different. But to your point, there&#8217;s certainly very big pockets of froth, if not overall.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If I could add to your malodorous observation, I think one of the things that we all have to worry about in the marketplace is that there is a gigantic contingent of investors, institutional and retail, who are playing a hedge fund momentum game. And so you can take something that&#8217;s easy to, dare I say, manipulate\u2014a recently introduced equity, equities with various liquidity profiles\u2014and you can run them up and you can run them down. And we&#8217;re seeing that happen in forms that are outside the usual places that institutional investors congregate. And that, I believe, remains a factor not only for regulators but also for all investors to be mindful of.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, Steve Sosnick, what does the dip in implied volatility say to you? Is it a reiteration of what you&#8217;ve just seen? Could you frame the recent magnitude of the slide in the VIX index for us?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think it&#8217;s actually just\u2014it&#8217;s completely in line with the move in the stock market. We went from abject fear in April, and I think that some of it was justified. Part of it was the reaction to the tariffs, but I think actually what really spooked investors, to Steve&#8217;s point, was the president initially did not seem as though he was market-friendly or didn\u2019t care.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Things were a little \u201cyippy\u201d. Then they\u2014I think the messaging took a more market-friendly tone, which is really what had really been the basis behind the post-election rally. I think, not inconsequentially, more centrist, less of a Lutnick, was probably a big part of it.&nbsp;<br>I don&#8217;t think the market loved hearing from either Commerce Secretary Lutnick or Peter Navarro.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I understand the market didn&#8217;t like hearing from Lutnick when he was at Cantor Fitz either.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, I&#8217;m not gonna touch that, but I do know a lot of people on Wall Street who were not fans of his. Some of that is people who worked there, some of it is competitors who got beat by him. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But you look at the fear gauge, which Steve and I disagree on from time to time, but what you&#8217;re seeing is a massive cleavage of trading activity between indexes and equities. And if you look at equity implied volatility, in fact, it&#8217;s often quite elevated.&nbsp;<br>And when you look at index volatility\u2014implied and realized &#8212; to some degree it\u2019s gonna reflect the marketplace. The market goes, the market sinks, vol goes up; the market rallies, vol goes down. And you&#8217;re seeing massive flows within the index complex and that influences things. But when people say that this is a 16 vol market, I don&#8217;t ever see that.&nbsp;<br>What I see is\u2014like I was looking at Tesla, for instance\u2014is at the monthlies or 64 vol.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What&#8217;s actually very interesting is\u2014and I literally put this out today, what is today? July 10th? June 10th\u2014on Traders Insight. And I was looking at put-call ratios, and the put-call ratios had been at a lower plateau since late 2022.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>And then I broke it out, because I was looking at the Composites [put\/call ratios], which is what I tend to look at. I broke out the index, and it&#8217;s quite startling how much index put-call ratios have changed dramatically since late 2022.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What happened in late 2022? That\u2019s when people discovered 0DTE options. The Tuesday and Thursday expirations were listed in 2022. People started to notice them late 2022.&nbsp;<br>I\u2019ve long since said the coming-out party, so to speak, was the February 23<sup>rd<\/sup> Fed meeting. I think that was the buzz\u2014I think the buzzword of that meeting was &#8220;transitory&#8221;\u2014because it occurred on Wednesday ahead of the unemployment number Friday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>And I think people said, &#8220;Oh, wait a minute\u2014there&#8217;s Thursday options. I don&#8217;t have to carry that risk.&#8221;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>And I think that&#8217;s when the dam broke, so to speak. And because we&#8217;ve been in a bull market since then, the activity has been so heavily predominant in index options and index calls.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>And specifically, SPX cash-settled index products have been the big winner in the past two years\u2014two-plus years. &nbsp;I think that&#8217;s actually, in many ways, really changing the dynamic. I hate to use the \u201cit&#8217;s different this time\u201d paradigm, because we all know that can get you into big trouble.&nbsp;<br>But I think that really has changed the nature, to your point, of index versus equity volume and index versus equity levels of activity.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So it\u2019s something that I\u2019ve seen quite a lot over the past nine months, is actually controlling activity occurring not in the stock market or in the options markets, but in the futures markets. And you and I have discussed this offline many times, and I frankly haven\u2019t delved into this, but intuitively I do believe that the volatility levels we\u2019re seeing in the cash index complex are being heavily influenced by what\u2019s happening with the futures.&nbsp;<br>And I believe that, just like you can turn the volume up or down with the TV dial, I believe that we\u2019re seeing very sophisticated investors\u2014who operate very efficiently in all three markets and many more\u2014are using futures trading to influence equity volatility in ways that defy simple, easy conversations, to tell you the truth.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Steve, what keeps you awake at night these days? Is it tepid economic data? Is it the prospect for protracted negotiations on trade? Or is it the US Marine Corps on the streets of Los Angeles alongside the National\u2014&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m gonna quote my favorite Marine Corps General, James Mattis: \u201cNothing keeps me awake at night, Andrew. I keep other people awake at night.\u201d &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>I think that we\u2019re in a very normal phase of the market. We\u2019re transitioning from earnings season, and if you were to strip back all of the pomp and circumstance that associates the market tick by tick, it\u2019s in a much better condition than people are willing to give it credit for.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>What I do think about, though, is that we seem\u2014this goes back to the point Steve made earlier\u2014we\u2019ve gone from being a market of investors who use options, for instance, to curate this or express that view, to being like a dog. Like a dog\u2014we\u2019re at a dog race, and people are constantly betting on what dog is gonna run the fastest.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>And the exchanges are increasingly focused on doing everything they possibly can to generate trading volume, which is a huge shift. Now they\u2019re public companies, they need to grow their earnings, so they\u2019re pandering to the very worst nature of investors.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>What keeps me awake is that we have CPI tomorrow, for instance\u2014it\u2019s being treated as if it\u2019s some sort of major Fed event. And the media\u2019s commenting upon it as, \u201cIf it\u2019s too hot, what\u2019s the Fed gonna do?\u201d And it becomes a make-or-break outcome to something that\u2014the first cut, of course, is anticipated for September as indicated by the Fed futures.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>So, my concern is really one of unhealthiness. There is this sickness in the market that\u2019s existed for a long time. Nothing terrible has happened thus far. But look\u2014tomorrow\u2019s CPI is not the make-or-break for the year. Whatever happens later is not gonna be make-or-break.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>So, you have this entire generation of investors who\u2019ve become so sophisticated\u2014they trade stocks, they trade options, some do everything in multiple markets\u2014and sooner or later, there\u2019s gonna be a magnitude of one of these reports or not, and that\u2019s gonna break. That\u2019s gonna have a very high negative impact. And that\u2019s what I\u2019m watching. But I\u2019ve been watching this for 18, 19 months and haven\u2019t seen anything.&nbsp;<br>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But that\u2019s the one thing\u2014that a day of reckoning will come. It always does.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Picking up on that\u2014I think the dog racing analogy is a great one. And I\u2019m gonna throw out a title: <em>There Goes Swifty<\/em>, for any of you who\u2019ve ever been to a dog race, because there\u2019s the mechanical rabbit\u2014basically, \u201cThere goes Swifty!\u201d\u2014and off go the dogs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But bottom line\u2014sorry.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interesting about that is\u2014I was, again, this is something I was literally just doing the work on\u2014and it shows you that the growth greyhound has been so outpacing the value Dachshund right now in markets. Interestingly, I\u2014&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the little dog won\u2019t hunt, by the way.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The little\u2014no, little\u2014&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The little dog won\u2019t hunt.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And, but you know what? &nbsp;I ran the numbers through Friday, and\u2014and it\u2019s again in the piece that I put out today\u2014S&amp;P for the year through Friday was up about 2%. The Growth SGX, the S&amp;P Growth Index, was up about 4%. The SVX was actually just about dead flat. It was actually down by a hair\u2014less than, I think, like 0.06%, something of that nature.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And so, it\u2019s telling you that the money\u2014as it did in 2024 and 2023\u2014the money\u2019s been made in the growth stocks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s fascinating is: since April 8th, which was pretty much the low close for the S&amp;P this year, the growth sector\u2019s up about 27%. The value sector\u2019s up about 13%. And the S&amp;P itself was up about 20% through that period.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, it\u2019s telling you that the\u2014basically, consistently\u2014the gains in the growth stocks are double that of the value stocks. But here\u2019s the rub: For us to be in that situation, where they\u2019re only outpacing by 2%\u2014I\u2019m sorry, by 4%\u2014growth over value, but yet in this six-week period, they\u2019re up by 13%, it\u2019s telling you that they got the crap kicked out of them in early April.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And that\u2019s what happens when you have an overcrowded trade.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, we saw what happens when <em>something<\/em> happens\u2014and that was, these stocks underperformed dramatically. &nbsp;And so, one of the conclusions that I came to was\u2014I actually plotted the NDX over those graphs. &nbsp;And NDX and SGX move essentially in lockstep, which makes sense\u2014they\u2019re essentially the same components. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, what it\u2019s telling me is\u2014I\u2019ve always been thinking that maybe you want to be hedging with SPX. No. I think you want to be hedging with NDX because if that\u2019s where the growth is coming from\u2014and therefore that is the crowded trade that becomes more difficult to exit\u2014that\u2019s where you want your hedge.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, as to what keeps me up at night? &nbsp;Any number of things. And apparently less and less seem to be keeping market participants up at night. And I facetiously use this pattern\u2014I put it out, I put it out plenty\u2014which was:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<br>Let the foreigners do what they will.&nbsp;They\u2019re gonna do it overnight. &nbsp;And then US futures wake up\u2014when US traders wake up. &nbsp;And I think that actually the foreign investors have gotten a little hipper to that, so it\u2019s not quite happening to the same degree.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then, off we go during the day. And if there\u2019s bad numbers at 8:30\u2014then buy the dip. &nbsp;If there\u2019s bad numbers at 10 o\u2019clock\u2014well, bad\u2014buy the dip.&nbsp;<br>Run it up into the close, because there seems to be money flowing into markets most days.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It didn\u2019t happen yesterday. It doesn\u2019t happen every day. But\u2014and then\u2014rinse, repeat.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And so I think when people get very complacent, those trades get very crowded. &nbsp;If there\u2019s a need for them to unravel, they unravel extraordinarily quickly. &nbsp;Because quite frankly, if everybody\u2019s overweighted in the Mag Seven and the like\u2014then who\u2019s left to buy them if they dip?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I want to\u2014if I can\u2014push off against one of your points you made about the international versus our\u2014the US market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As those of you who were active during the financial crisis remember, there was a theory or a trade largely predicated upon the ECB, BOE, and the Fed working together.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the view was that they were somehow working in concert on rate levels. And it would be okay if one of the big banks had a higher rate, as long as another bank had a lower rate. And that the Street\u2014which runs these things called dispersion books, i.e., long Japan, short America, whatever\u2014these two giant funding trades, that everything would be okay. And there\u2019d be some sort of musical rhythm amongst the countries.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the Fed has been steady\u2014and despite the presidential insistence that they take 100 pips off the rates\u2014ECBs cut, and to what Steve alludes to, I think that\u2019s probably something to watch.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t know which way the wave is gonna break, obviously, because as much as we seem to be in this momentum-driven environment, we\u2019re also in a thematic environment, and the themes also take longer to evolve. But it\u2019s just something that I keep\u2014that I\u2019m pondering. &nbsp;Steve, what do you think about that?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh no, this has been something that\u2019s been a concern. And we actually did mention this in a podcast we taped yesterday with my colleague Jose Torres\u2014and my constant companion Andrew for podcasts\u2014which was that the dollar is not cooperating here.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And in a sense, it\u2019s actually even the lack of \u2014the lack of, I guess, outflows that we see in the dollar index, whether you use DXY or one of the other broader measures. &nbsp;In theory, where you have an ECB that\u2019s been cutting\u2014although they say they\u2019re stopped here\u2014and a Fed that doesn\u2019t give any indication that it\u2019s cutting anytime soon\u2026 Because we\u2019re now looking at\u2014look at Forecast X or look at the CME futures\u2014we\u2019re actually talking about like 50\u201360% in September, so that might be pushed out as far as October.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I think Powell may be more intransigent because he knows that he\u2019s a lame duck at this point. They\u2019re actively discussing that there are successors to him, so what does he\u2014what has he got to lose at this point?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And in theory, if you have one country with a higher risk-free rate than another, and it differs substantially\u2014because it\u2019s about 2% versus about 4\u215c%\u2014you would expect to see the country with the higher risk-free rate have its currency appreciate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And we don\u2019t, which is telling us that money is flowing out of the dollar\u2014whether that\u2019s domestic investors diversifying internationally or international investors saying, \u201cWe\u2019re not so cool with all the stuff that\u2019s going on in the US. We\u2019re gonna diversify a little bit because we\u2019re still uncertain about trade wars and some of the other stuff that\u2019s going on.\u201d &nbsp;Those outflows can be a problem over time because that\u2019s a tide that\u2019s going out. And we saw what happened\u2014when the yen\u2014last August, when the yen reversed abruptly. I don\u2019t think we\u2019re seeing that now. I don\u2019t think we\u2019re seeing that. &nbsp;We\u2019re certainly not seeing that in the euro. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But you\u2019ve got two countries where, in theory, you could be doing carry trades. In reality, it doesn\u2019t appear that the money\u2019s flowing that way.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And also, I think gold is another tell\u2014which I\u2019m not a huge gold bug by any means\u2014but I think a lot of the rally that we\u2019ve seen in gold, some of it is anti-dollar. I\u2019ve always referred to gold as the anti-dollar. Some of it is, I think, central banks are diversifying away from the dollar as well. Anecdotally, I obviously can\u2019t tell you what any given central bank is doing at any given time. &nbsp;But if I were an international central banker, I don\u2019t know that I\u2019d want to be quite so tied into the US dollar right now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What if there are other alternatives? This is not me saying that the dollar stops being the reserve currency\u2014I don\u2019t want to portray it that way\u2014but I think international investors of different stripes are lightening up as a result.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My view is that the currency markets and the fixed income markets have now become chips in a geopolitical game.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As America seeks to negotiate a new tariff regime\u2014and a new, shall we say, world order\u2014or an augmentation of the existing. And the precedence for this goes all the way back to the oil embargo when Carter was president. &nbsp; So, when the Saudis cut us off\u2014at the same time, I believe they were spending a billion dollars, when a billion dollars was a lot of money\u2014to push down, to do something in the other\u2014in the Treasury market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think you\u2019re seeing that now. Now, who\u2019s the largest owner of our debt? I believe it\u2019s China. I believe that it becomes a massive tool in negotiations. &nbsp;And I believe the same thing is true of the dollar.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Along those lines, you want to know what keeps me up at night?&nbsp;<br>It\u2019s if China\u2014or Japan, more likely China\u2014says, \u201cYou know what? We\u2019re gonna take an auction off. Gonna skip this one.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Head to the Hamptons.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or not. Or\u2014&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or not.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But no\u2014and they keep doing it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think at some level it\u2019s self-destructive, \u2019cause they don\u2019t necessarily want to mark down all their massive dollar holdings. But the fact that they hold so much of US debt is a result of them selling us so many goods. It\u2019s the flip side.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But if they sit out an auction\u2014this is the same sort of tool that the Saudis had with oil. The Chinese can do it with money. &nbsp;And basically say, \u201cYou know what? Yeah, you got a nice bunch of ten-years you\u2019re selling there. We\u2019re not really interested this week, this month.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are many data fields in the Middle East. And there\u2019s one in particular that\u2019s littered with blown-out tanks and armored personnel carriers. And racing along the desert floor is an oil pipe. And when a general is asked why that pipe could still exist and was unharmed, he says:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWar is war, and business is business.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I think that principle is probably true in any language and in any geography\u2014which is not to detract from Steve\u2019s point, \u2019cause I believe Steve is correct. &nbsp;But we\u2019re dealing in time sequences and games that are played out.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And if you look back to Dean Acheson\u2014who, of course, was the great Secretary of State who helped create the post\u2013World War II world we live and operate in\u2014he loved to do, after a day at Foggy Bottom, was to go to his workshop at the back of his house in Virginia and make furniture in his woodshop. And the reason he said he liked to do that is because the things that he does during his day job might take 20, 30, 50 years to evolve\u2014whereas he could turn a leg for a chair maybe overnight.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I think we need to be mindful of that perspective. &nbsp;And also, mindful that, yes, some of these things could change rather dramatically in unexpected ways\u2014but unless something dramatic has happened that none of us are aware of, the rule of law still defines life in our markets and in our society.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I\u2019ve been to many places all over the world, and I\u2019ve yet to find any of our competitors\u2014shall we say\u2014who operate at the same level, legally. \u201cDear, a contract is a contract.\u201d &nbsp;And I\u2019m not sure if that\u2019s true elsewhere.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let me ask you both to wrap up. We&#8217;ve talked about stocks, bonds, and dollars.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Assume the next time we meet is the start of September, about three months from now\u2014what decision would you make today? Which one would you choose? Let&#8217;s start with Steve Sosnick.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSell in May and go away\u201d was not a useful call\u2014which is a call I actually didn\u2019t make because I\u2019m always a believer of: \u201cSell in May and go where? Do what? Okay, that\u2019s where you might go. But financially, where do you go\u2014where are you putting it? I think we have to be mindful of whether some of these trades are getting overextended. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think that\u2014again, we\u2019re taping this about a month before the initial tariff reprieve, so to speak, is set to expire.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The market\u2019s definitely betting that\u2019s gonna get pushed back. I don\u2019t want to use the food terminology that\u2019s been utilized to define that trade, but I think the market is probably not wrong to think that.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I think the question is: do we start to see the consumer\u2014 I\u2019m looking very closely at consumer sentiment &#8212; Do we start to see the consumer feel like they\u2019re recovering, or do they continue to display some malaise?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When I look at consumer sentiment\u2014which stinks, okay? \u2014and you say, \u201cAll right, sentiment\u2014what are they doing? What are they saying?\u201d Remember: the dollar stores (DLTR, DG) have had big runs. Walmart\u2019s (WMT) had big runs. Which means you\u2019ve got customers trading down. Which means the consumer is not feeling hunky-dory here.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And so again, my big concern is that sentiment sort of spirals negative. But with the tariff threats still unresolved, the Fed remains on the sidelines. And so, I think the sort of \u201ccoming of the cavalry\u201d that I think the market expects on the monetary side just doesn\u2019t arrive.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And so, I hope that the consumer sentiment recovers\u2014obviously\u2014and that the exuberance that we see in the market is reflected in the consumer economy. And certainly, the wealth effect is probably quite helpful. But that, to me, is what I\u2019m watching.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m long. Yeah\u2014stocks yesterday, stocks today, stocks tomorrow, stocks forever. And\u2014fully invested. And if you have any sort of concerns during your holding period, you\u2014 sometimes you sell calls. Sometimes you sell puts. Sometimes you hedge.&nbsp;<br>There\u2019s lots of ways to take advantage of what\u2019s ultimately volatility with puts and calls, and\u2014&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Very\u2014&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s what I think.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Barron\u2019s<\/em> columnist Steven Sears, thank you very much for joining us today.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you. Always a pleasure to be with all of you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>See you, Steve.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And Steve Sosnick, thanks for joining me again, and we\u2019ll talk next week.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sounds good. Thanks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sears<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks, guys.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks to you both. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And to the audience\u2014thank you for taking the time to sit through this podcast with us. And if you haven\u2019t already done so, please remember to subscribe to this channel wherever you get your podcasts from. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bye for now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are moving fast\u2014but are investors chasing real value or just the mechanical rabbit? 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