{"id":225589,"date":"2025-06-11T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-11T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=225589"},"modified":"2025-06-11T12:18:52","modified_gmt":"2025-06-11T16:18:52","slug":"tomorrows-ppi-yes-is-the-trade-of-the-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/tomorrows-ppi-yes-is-the-trade-of-the-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Tomorrow\u2019s PPI \u201cYes\u201d Is the Trade of The Day: June 11, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s May Producer Price Index is expected to reflect a modest rise of 0.2% month over month (m\/m) and 2.6% year over year (y\/y). Of the 18 forecasters surveyed in a Reuters poll the lowest projection was 2.2% y\/y. Meanwhile, the available thresholds in the corresponding forecast contracts appear undervalued to me. The \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> answer at 1.9% costs just $0.81 and requires a m\/m drop of 0.4% for the investor to lose money. I like the odds here as I don\u2019t think a decline of that magnitude is feasible at this juncture. Additionally, I also like the \u201cYeses\u201d ranging from 1.1% to 1.7% which cost between $0.96 and $0.89. Finally, the last time the PPI failed to exceed 1.9% was over a year ago in February 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 11, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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