{"id":225525,"date":"2025-06-10T11:12:25","date_gmt":"2025-06-10T15:12:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=225525"},"modified":"2025-06-10T12:07:21","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T16:07:21","slug":"im-on-team-yes-for-tomorrows-headline-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/im-on-team-yes-for-tomorrows-headline-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"I\u2019m on \u201cTeam Yes\u201d For Tomorrow\u2019s Headline CPI: June 10, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I\u2019m on \u201cTeam Yes\u201d for tomorrow\u2019s Consumer Price Index. My estimate of the figure is 2.43% while the median expectation is 2.5%. As I expressed in yesterday\u2019s opinion for the core version of the indicator, I think there\u2019s a greater chance of an upside beat rather than a downside miss due to pricier-than-expected automobile costs. Furthermore, misses of 0.2% on domestic annualized inflation figures are rare and I think the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=712856682%7C20250611%7C2.3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> for the question asking, \u201cWill the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 2.3% in May 2025?\u201d is a bargain at $0.78.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-FT-Jaune-10.png\" alt=\"Historical CPI results and IBKR ForecastTrader pricing. \" class=\"wp-image-225529 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-FT-Jaune-10.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-FT-Jaune-10-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-FT-Jaune-10-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-FT-Jaune-10-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"669\" height=\"71\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-FT-June-10.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if CPI will exceed 2.3%.\" class=\"wp-image-225531 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-FT-June-10.png 669w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-FT-June-10-300x32.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 669px) 100vw, 669px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 669px; aspect-ratio: 669\/71;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-home-run-potential-directional-combination\"><strong>Home Run Potential, Directional Combination<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>And for those that are looking for a potential home run, I think the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=712856682%7C20250611%7C2.5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes\u201d<\/a> at the 2.5% threshold is undervalued at just $0.04. An upside beat at 2.6% or above would deliver $1.00 back to investor on a capital outlay of just $0.04. A directional combination may work here for investors, with the \u201cYeses\u201d at 2.3% and 2.5% adding up to $0.82 with the potential for $1.00 back on a 2.4% or 2.5% result or $2.00 back on a number at 2.6% or higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"75\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-5.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US CPI will exceed 2.5%\" class=\"wp-image-225532 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-5.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-5-300x36.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/75;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"438\" height=\"448\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture4-FT-June-4.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding May's CPI\" class=\"wp-image-225533 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture4-FT-June-4.png 438w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture4-FT-June-4-300x307.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 438px) 100vw, 438px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 438px; aspect-ratio: 438\/448;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 10, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019m on \u201cTeam Yes\u201d heading into tomorrow\u2019s Consumer Price Index. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":206724,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,26,3],"tags":[217],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-225525","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-cpi","15":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>I\u2019m on \u201cTeam 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