{"id":225427,"date":"2025-06-09T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-09T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=225427"},"modified":"2025-06-20T14:17:40","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T18:17:40","slug":"wednesdays-core-cpi-is-the-trade-of-the-day-june-9-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/wednesdays-core-cpi-is-the-trade-of-the-day-june-9-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Wednesday\u2019s Core CPI is the Trade of the Day: June 9, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Wednesday core <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=2&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=727520252%7C20250611%7C2.7\">Consumer Price Index<\/a> (CPI) is expected to tick up from 2.8% year over year in April to 2.9% in May. My estimate is in-line with the consensus on this one and I like the \u201cYes\u201d answers at the 2.7% and 2.6% thresholds, which are going for $0.86 and $0.96. It\u2019s a high bar for an annualized US inflation figure to be off by more than 0.1% and the trade is still profitable on a downside miss at 2.8%. I think an upside beat is possible on the back of heavier-than-projected automobile charges and that kept me away from the \u201cNo\u201d answers at 2.9% and 3%. Finally, the core CPI hasn\u2019t come in at or below 2.7% since March 2021, over four years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-6.png\" alt=\"Core Consumer Price Index\" class=\"wp-image-225432 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-6.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-6-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-6-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-6-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"662\" height=\"51\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-5.png\" alt=\"Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed in 2.7% in May 2025\" class=\"wp-image-225433 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-5.png 662w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-5-300x23.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 662px) 100vw, 662px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 662px; aspect-ratio: 662\/51;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"558\" height=\"546\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-4.png\" alt=\"Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 9, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.\" class=\"wp-image-225434 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-4.png 558w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture3-4-300x294.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 558px) 100vw, 558px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 558px; aspect-ratio: 558\/546;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 9, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wednesday core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to tick up from 2.8% year over year in April to 2.9% in May. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":191936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[10193,446,570,12102,3612],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-225427","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-prediction-market","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-core-cpi","15":"tag-federal-reserve","16":"tag-inflation","17":"tag-market-reaction","18":"tag-trading-strategy","19":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized 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