{"id":225183,"date":"2025-06-04T11:35:44","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T15:35:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=225183"},"modified":"2025-06-04T12:35:14","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T16:35:14","slug":"bursting-with-bubblelicious-energy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/bursting-with-bubblelicious-energy\/","title":{"rendered":"Bursting with Bubblelicious Energy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick joins Andrew Wilkinson to explore the momentum-fueled rallies, surprising resilience to bad news, and the yield curve signals that have some investors on edge. From quirky trading patterns to signs of speculative froth, it\u2019s a timely look at what\u2019s driving this <em>bubblelicious<\/em> energy in the markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Bursting with Bubblelicious Energy\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=tsn8r-18c9b2d-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-263\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 263<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to this week&#8217;s Market Minute. My name\u2019s Andrew Wilkinson, and I am joined in the IBKR Studio by Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick. Welcome back to the program, Steve. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am doing well, Andrew. Thank you. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Doing okay, thank you. Markets are up to all sorts. What\u2019s going on? Are we ever going down again?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nope. Apparently not. Nope. Never. Obviously, that&#8217;s a facetious answer, but right now, the momentum is so strong\u2014the belief in markets is so strong\u2014that traders, particularly in the U.S., but even globally, because a lot of global markets are hitting all-time highs as well, are just shrugging off any amount of bad news.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I facetiously put out a rubric on Trader\u2019s Insight: basically, \u201cUp by futures. Maybe get around to brushing your teeth. If there\u2019s an 8:30 number and there\u2019s a dip after that, use it as a buying opportunity. If there\u2019s a 10 o\u2019clock number, use that as a buying opportunity.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we\u2019re taping this today, Monday morning, the 8:30 ADP number\u2014which was pretty lousy\u2014proved to be a buying opportunity. Futures sold off, and then opened higher.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we&#8217;re taping this now, the ISM numbers just came out. They look truly, astonishingly bad\u2014at least at first glance. I\u2019m sure the market will treat that as a buying opportunity later this afternoon.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then wait for the Europeans to go home at 11:30, get them out of the way, push it higher, and then buy into the close\u2014because there always seems to be money flowing in at the close. So let\u2019s beat the market-on-close imbalances.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Obviously, life is not that simple. Somebody joked to me, \u201cCan they program that into the IBKR API?\u201d I guess in theory, you could. But in reality, that can\u2019t necessarily last.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Breaking it down\u2014the 3:50 rally is strictly because money is flowing into ETFs and mutual funds. That\u2019s the traders at those funds\u2019 way of guaranteeing a decent close and decent trading performance for themselves. If you\u2019ve been buying all day and the market closes at its high, that\u2019s probably a pretty good thing for your results.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But realistically, there\u2019s this faith that the market is just going to bounce back from everything.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m trying to avoid the term the market\u2019s assigned to how it views the tariff trade\u2014I think that\u2019s political, and it\u2019s not our role to be political\u2014but the market is certainly looking through any tariff noise at this point. And to be fair, it\u2019s understandable why: because every big pronouncement has either been postponed to some degree, rolled back to some degree, or backed off.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The only one that\u2019s really gotten teeth so far is the steel tariffs that went into effect today. So I think the market has decided that tariffs are a lot of noise, the political scene in Washington is a lot of noise, and even though earnings expectations for the S&amp;P 500 are lower than they were the last time we were flirting with the 6,000 level, momentum is in your favor.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Momentum\u2014I&#8217;ve written this before\u2014momentum in its purest form means we&#8217;re only caring about price action. Therefore, I don\u2019t really care about fundamentals. We know that only works for so long, but that is the mentality the market has right now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But surely, Steve, there must be some concerns in the background.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I view the biggest concern to be the bond market. And when I hear people like Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio expressing that same concern, I have to think that maybe it is a pretty valid concern.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Breaking this down again\u2014not getting too political\u2014we had seen, at least in the aftermath of the tariffs, a flight basically from the U.S. I&#8217;ve written about this a couple of times: we saw the S&amp;P 500 trade down overnight and then get it all back during the day. Essentially, that had been the pattern.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now it\u2019s equalizing a little bit. I think part of the reason is that U.S. traders have gotten a bit more aggressive. Part of the \u201cbuying futures before brushing their teeth\u201d thing\u2014before their first coffee. That registers as the overnight session. But still, we\u2019re looking at a situation now where the budget bill passed the House. On some level, it\u2019s going to raise the deficit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I know a lot of the proponents have been dismissing the Congressional Budget Office, saying they get it wrong. They actually, over time, don\u2019t necessarily get it that wrong.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It involves a bit of supply-side thinking that I think can be a bit dubious sometimes in terms of the benefits of the tax cuts. But regardless, if you\u2019re trying to reduce a deficit, there are two ways to do it: one is by cutting spending, one is by raising revenue.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This bill works on the former, but not the latter. Now, I\u2019m not sitting here advocating for tax hikes, but if you\u2019re going to continue on a larger spending path\u2014even though you are making cuts\u2014you\u2019re maybe slowing down the rate of growth of the deficit and debt, but not necessarily shrinking it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At some point, you do have to wonder: are we one bad auction away from something really terrible? We&#8217;re not there yet. But to me, the thing that I watch most closely is the 2\u201310 spread.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because that can tell you very bad things if it starts to expand. If you start to see the two-year yield shrink dramatically, that&#8217;s the market telling you they&#8217;re afraid of a recession\u2014because they figure the Fed has reason to cut rates.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And what we\u2019ve heard from Fed governors is that they\u2019re much more afraid about re-stoking inflation than they are about a weak labor economy. We\u2019ll hear more about that on Friday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We heard from ADP today, which was not encouraging. But still, if you&#8217;re talking about 4.2% versus 4.3% versus 4.4% unemployment, that\u2019s still a pretty healthy labor economy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But with all the tariff uncertainty, they don\u2019t know what to do about inflation. So the Fed is not necessarily cutting. That would bring the short end down, the long end up\u2014fears about either future inflation or the government\u2019s ability to pay back its debts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t think the U.S. government really can or would default. The question becomes, though: are you going to get paid back in inflated currency or not? Inflated currency means deflated purchasing power.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And remember\u2014the bond guys don\u2019t get as seduced by all the same stories and rhetoric that stock traders do. Those of us on the stock side love a good story\u2014and there are tons of them out there. Bond guys are pretty straightforward. They only worry about whether they\u2019re going to get paid back.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And if you\u2019re a government bond trader, you&#8217;re pretty much going to get paid back. It\u2019s just a question of how and when.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is why I consider the spread between twos and tens to be very crucial. We had a flirtation with 4.5% on the 10-years. We had a flirtation with 5% on the 30-years. That test proved&#8230; the market bounced below those levels; yields bounced below those levels; prices rose.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those two levels, to me, are really the ones to watch\u2014because bond traders can get very squirrely all at once. They momentum trade too, by the way.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I guess the third thing to add there, Steve\u2014and you alluded to it, but you didn\u2019t say it outright\u2014it\u2019s an absolute rise in U.S. yields, and again, relative to international yields. So I was envisaging perhaps global bond yields going up, but I think it would probably manifest itself more in a widening in the spread between the U.S. and Germany, the U.S. and the U.K., the U.S. and Japan even.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, I saw a very good chart\u2014I think it was from the former J.P. Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovi\u0107, who\u2019s got his own biases. He basically ran this chart of the U.S. dollar index and, I believe, the U.S. 10-year yield. They moved more or less together, and then in the last few months, we\u2019ve seen a big dispersion. His conclusion was: it says 10-year yields are going to be 4%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, if you believe strictly in correlation, yeah, I guess that\u2019s true. And again, being respectful of the term \u201cit\u2019s different this time,\u201d I have to always be cautious when I use that. But if we are seeing money flow out of the U.S., that is what you would expect. You would expect to see the dollar weaken. At the same time, you would see the bond market stagnate\u2014the bond yields stagnate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Can you get down to 4% again? Yes. I kind of shudder to think about the economic conditions that would be required for that to happen. And I certainly do not want to root for that, but I do think it\u2019s telling us that there\u2019s\u2014I don\u2019t know\u2014there\u2019s a fundamental shift. And I don\u2019t know if it\u2019s going to last or persist, but I think there certainly has been a secular move out of U.S. assets\u2014certainly out of the U.S. bond market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And that is worrisome, considering\u2014we\u2019ve said this before\u2014our biggest export is our debt. We buy stuff in exchange for people buying our debt. And also, you\u2019ve got to wonder\u2014we could go down rabbit holes\u2014if we shrink the trade deficit, does that shrink the need for debt, etc., etc.? But that\u2019s really what it comes down to. And I do think that is the thing that kind of keeps me up at night. And the tell is that 2-to-10-year spread.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Steve, people are always looking for bubbles\u2014in good times and bad\u2014but are we seeing anything at this point?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In general, no. But there\u2019s certainly what I\u2019m going to call some \u201cbubblelicious\u201d behavior out there. I noticed one of the more active stocks on our platform was a stock\u2014SBET\u2014and I was like, \u201cWhat is this?\u201d It doesn\u2019t even trade options. I think it was $3 last week, and $3 two weeks ago, and $80 last week at one point.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wow.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No, I was thinking it got up to $125 or something like that. I don\u2019t want to go into the story\u2014people can do their own research into it\u2014but somebody asked me to explain it to them, and I said it\u2019s basically an unholy story involving Martin Shkreli, a short squeeze, and a company\u2019s desire to become an Ethereum treasury company.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wow.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You&#8217;ve got people\u2014you\u2019ve got financial alchemy. We do see this every week. I see that there\u2019s a few stocks out there that just\u2014everybody seizes upon as momentum. Boom, the momentum gets going, everybody jumps in, it gets an outrageous valuation. Again, the fundamentals do catch up over time. But you do get these crazy moves that creep up, and that doesn\u2019t happen if the environment is not\u2014if there\u2019s not some froth out there.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bubblelicious nature of financial alchemy. Thank you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick:<\/strong> And by the way, just to prove my point about the rubric\u2014if bad news comes out at 10 o\u2019clock, buy the futures. The S&amp;P is more or less back to where it was when we started the call\u2014or just before we started the call. Despite the lousy ISM numbers, stocks have shrugged those off as well.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There you go. Thank you very much, Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks, Andrew. Take care.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And don\u2019t forget\u2014if you enjoyed today\u2019s podcast, remember to subscribe wherever you download your podcasts from. Bye for now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick joins Andrew Wilkinson to explore the momentum-fueled rallies, surprising resilience to bad news, and the yield curve signals that have some investors on edge. From quirky trading patterns to signs of speculative froth, it\u2019s a timely look at what\u2019s driving this bubblelicious energy in the markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":225184,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[19601,16187,2255,9362,19603,6988,19480,12548,850,7590,9535,10542,14265,19604,18356,16363,16328,18242,19602,861],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-225183","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-2-10-spread","10":"tag-andrew-wilkinson","11":"tag-bond-yields","12":"tag-economic-outlook","13":"tag-etf-inflows","14":"tag-financial-markets","15":"tag-ibkr-podcast","16":"tag-inflation-risks","17":"tag-interest-rates","18":"tag-investor-sentiment","19":"tag-market-bubble","20":"tag-market-froth","21":"tag-market-momentum","22":"tag-short-squeeze-stocks","23":"tag-speculative-stocks","24":"tag-steve-sosnick","25":"tag-stock-market-rally","26":"tag-trading-psychology","27":"tag-us-10-year-yield","28":"tag-yield-curve","29":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bursting with Bubblelicious Energy | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick joins Andrew Wilkinson to explore the momentum-fueled rallies, surprising resilience to bad news, and the yield curve...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225183\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bursting with Bubblelicious Energy | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick joins Andrew Wilkinson to explore the momentum-fueled rallies, surprising resilience to bad news, and the yield curve signals that have some investors on edge. 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