{"id":225181,"date":"2025-06-04T11:26:31","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T15:26:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=225181"},"modified":"2025-06-06T13:35:34","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T17:35:34","slug":"blue-line-futures-research-june-3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/futures\/blue-line-futures-research-june-3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Line Futures Research 6.3.25"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-energy-update-nbsp\">Energy Update:&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T081737.923-1100x445.jpg\" alt=\"WTI crude oil chart\" class=\"wp-image-225187 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T081737.923-1100x445.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T081737.923-700x283.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T081737.923-300x121.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T081737.923-768x310.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T081737.923.jpg 1200w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/445;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wti-crude-oil-futures-july-future\"><strong>WTI Crude Oil Futures (July Future)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday&#8217;s Settlement: 63.41, up +0.89 [+1.42%]&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI Crude oil showed follow-through strength yesterday as geopolitical risk and Canadian wildfires aided in the short covering rally. Russia&#8217;s ability to export crude oil is being squeezed as sanctions continue to bite, and the probability of further sanctions from the Trump administration is growing as a ceasefire becomes less likely.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, WTI Crude Oil is lower by -0.34 [-0.54%] to 63.07<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude is lower today on technical selling and the slowing of wildfires in Canada. The Canadian wildfires have shut in around 350k bpd for a short period, but overnight rainfall has slowed the fires and limited the risk of more barrels being taken offline.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-data-releases-nbsp\">Data Releases: &nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Last night&#8217;s API report was as follows [thousand bbls]:<\/strong><br>Crude: -3,300<br>Gasoline: +4,700<br>Distillates: +760<br><strong>Estimates for today&#8217;s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:<\/strong><br>Crude: -3,128 estimate&nbsp;<br>Gasoline: -500 estimate<br>Distillates: +171 estimate<br>Refinery Utilization: +1.00%&nbsp;<br><strong>Technical Analysis:<\/strong><br>While crude showed follow-through strength, price failed to test our longer-term pivot pocket of&#8230;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enjoyed the report? Unlock full technical breakdowns and our daily take on crude, metals, livestock, grains, and equities\u2014 sign up through the portal today and don\u2019t miss a move. <a href=\"https:\/\/cx1nh.share.hsforms.com\/2539O20AeRC6JvI5Tu7V-5g\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sign Up<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-morning-express-nbsp\">Morning Express:&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-e-mini-s-amp-p-june-e-mini-nq-june-nbsp\"><strong>E-mini S&amp;P (June) \/ E-mini NQ (June)<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>S&amp;P, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 5981.50, up 34.25&nbsp;NQ, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 21,706.00, up 171.50&nbsp;E-mini S&amp;P and E-mini NQ futures levitated from yesterday\u2019s opening bell into the noon CT hour without a negative 30-minute bar. The tape largely held those gains aside from a wiggle after the private ADP jobs survey for May this morning. The survey came in at 37k versus 111k expected, with last month revised lower by 2k, and sets the stage for Friday\u2019s official Nonfarm Payrolls report. Services data is also front and center this morning with final May SPGI due at 8:45 am CT and followed by the more closely watched ISM report at 9:00 am CT, which includes Prices.&nbsp;E-mini S&amp;P futures stuck their nose above major three-star resistance at 5982.50-5987.50, trading to 5991.25 yesterday before settling at 5981.50. This pocket will remain crucial as a pivot and point of balance and trading above here will clearly pave the path for a test into rare major four-star resistance at 6019.50-6040.50. As for the E-mini NQ, it did clear the next wave of resistance at&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enjoyed the report? Unlock full technical breakdowns and our daily take on crude, metals, livestock, grains, and equities\u2014 sign up through the portal today and don\u2019t miss a move. <a href=\"https:\/\/cx1nh.share.hsforms.com\/2539O20AeRC6JvI5Tu7V-5g\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sign Up<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-grains-express-nbsp\">Grains Express:&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wheat\">Wheat<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"460\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085629.346.png\" alt=\"wheat cot report for managed money (futures and options)\" class=\"wp-image-225186 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085629.346.png 852w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085629.346-700x378.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085629.346-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085629.346-768x415.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 852px; aspect-ratio: 852\/460;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technicals<br><\/strong>Wheat futures saw a choppy trade again in yesterday&#8217;s trade, probing out above the 50-day moving average but reversing to finish the day slightly lower.&nbsp; All in all, the market has seen wide ranges through the first half of the week, but prices remain near unchanged.&nbsp; Support and resistance levels remain intact.&nbsp; We continue to believe the risk\/reward setup skews favorably to the Bull camp from these levels as the chart (despite not rallying significantly) continues to try and build a base of higher lows.&nbsp;<br><strong>Technical Levels of Importance<br><\/strong>Resistance: 541 1\/4-544***, 569 1\/4-571***<br>Pivot: 532 1\/2-535&nbsp;<br>Support: 517 1\/2-523 1\/4***, 498-501 1\/4***<br><strong>Headlines<br><\/strong>Drought bakes China&#8217;s wheat belt, slashing harvests for some<br>Parts of China&#8217;s wheat belt in Shaanxi and Henan provinces have been hit hard by hot, dry weather, with the sun baking the soil into cracked slabs and scorching the wheat before it could ripen.&nbsp; Last month, Shaanxi recorded its highest average temperatures since records began in 1961.&nbsp; While official figures are still some six weeks away, more than a dozen farmers in the area and those they hire to harvest the crop told Reuters of losses and small harvests, down as much as half for some.<br>In some parts of the province, the drought was so bad farmers brought the harvest forward by a week.&nbsp; And while rain finally arrived in recent days, bringing some relief, it has also threatened to disrupt the harvest for those who waited.<br><strong>Seasonal Tendencies Update<br><\/strong>(Updated on 6.2.25)<br>Below is a look at historical price averages for July wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"422\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085628.036-1-1100x422.jpg\" alt=\"historical price averages for July wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames\" class=\"wp-image-225189 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085628.036-1-1100x422.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085628.036-1-700x269.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085628.036-1-300x115.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085628.036-1-768x295.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/unnamed-2025-06-04T085628.036-1.jpg 1120w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/422;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><br><strong>Commitment of Traders Update<br><\/strong>Friday&#8217;s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 8k futures\/options.&nbsp; The second straight week of net buying from Funds.&nbsp;<br>Enjoyed the report? Unlock full technical breakdowns and our daily take on crude, metals, livestock, grains, and equities\u2014 sign up through the portal today and don\u2019t miss a move. <a href=\"https:\/\/cx1nh.share.hsforms.com\/2539O20AeRC6JvI5Tu7V-5g\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sign Up<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on June 3, 2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WTI Crude oil showed follow-through strength yesterday as geopolitical risk and Canadian wildfires aided in the short covering rally. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":225187,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14949,4699,13038,2896,19645],"contributors-categories":[13588],"class_list":{"0":"post-225181","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-futures","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-commodity-outlook","14":"tag-gold-futures","15":"tag-market-analysis","16":"tag-precious-metals","17":"tag-silver-trading","18":"contributors-categories-blue-line-futures"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - 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