{"id":225164,"date":"2025-06-04T10:46:05","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T14:46:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=225164"},"modified":"2025-06-05T03:43:44","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T07:43:44","slug":"chart-advisor-shockwaves-in-the-financial-system","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-shockwaves-in-the-financial-system\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Shockwaves in the Financial System"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Brendan McCarty, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Markets Gaming Tariffs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ When Will the Inflation Matter?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Don\u2019t Forget Money<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Banking System Rolling?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5\/ The Greenback\u2019s Impact<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Markets Gaming Tariffs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past 27 years since I entered \u201cthe business,\u201d I\u2019ve seen it all in these markets\u2014LTCM, bursting bubbles, financial collapses, and pandemics. Now, let\u2019s add tariffs, which are just as significant to the economy as the tax reform that launched the bull market in 2017. What\u2019s interesting about the tariffs, however, is the market\u2019s response. In this first chart, the market is pricing in a decline in margins\u2014an expectation that companies will absorb some of the tariff costs\u2014which in turn is projected to weigh on forward earnings growth. Typically, the 10-year yield<\/a>, as shown in the chart, tracks margin trends, but since \u201cliberation day<\/a>\u201d in April, it has moved in the opposite direction. So, following Dollar General\u2019s earnings call Tuesday morning, in which the company noted expanding margins, is the market misreading the impact of tariffs?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

While Dollar General is not the definitive \u201ctell\u201d for the entire market, it does suggest that the extreme conclusions investors have drawn about margin pressures may not materialize\u2014at least in the short term. At the same time, if the 10-year yield is no longer responding to margins but instead to inflation concerns, then consider when the divergence began: last fall\u2019s election. Most believe that current White House has no problem pushing the growth side of the ledger. When combined with the large amount of money in the system, that argues for a potential surge in demand and inflation. Thus the break.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When Will the Inflation Matter?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This next chart shows current Fed overnight policy conditions relative to where the market is pricing they should be. The Fed Fair model\u2014one I created years ago\u2014helps monitor when market conditions are likely to be more volatile than normal. When the fair value of the Fed funds target is below the actual target, markets tend to be choppier, and vice versa. As an aside, some of the greatest equity market \u201ccrashes,\u201d if you will, have occurred under tight Fed policy according to this model\u2014but that\u2019s a post for another day. In any case, while the market is pricing in an inflation storm via the 10-year yield, the current Fed funds target remains tight, which argues that inflation should continue to moderate. Today\u2019s PCE reading of 2.5%, down from 2.7% a year ago, supports that view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The policy mistake the Fed could make at this point would be cutting rates, which would make this model indicate an “easy” stance\u2014potentially setting the stage for a surge in inflation, theoretically driven by rising demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t Forget Money<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the Fed funds target is an important part of the equation, another key factor to consider is market liquidity and its ultimate effect on inflation. Since the Global Financial Crisis, liquidity has been the primary driver of asset prices. Every major surge in liquidity has coincided with rising asset values, and that dynamic was once again evident this spring, as shown in the chart. With the S&P and broader risk assets selling off this spring, helped by the continued rising risk in volatility and the drop in the Dollar, liquidity surged to offset this drop which turned the VIX<\/a> lower (higher on this chart) and the S&P 500<\/a> higher. As the S&P climbs, remember, wealth increases and thus the \u201cdemand available for goods,\u201d also rises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s interesting about this surge in liquidity is its volatile nature\u2014massive amounts of money are moving through the system, which could be attributed to factors such as the 10% drop in the S&P or the breakout in Bitcoin. Typically, however, liquidity measures fluctuating this dramatically tend to do more harm than good for the economy, as they increase uncertainty around capital flows. In addition, they impact the banking system and lending conditions, which also impacts the economy. It is the best interest of regulators to have stable money and stable rates \u2013 not the opposite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Banking System Rolling?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This next chart features my \u201cbanking system\u201d model, which I use as a leading indicator of potential trouble. It has served me well over the years\u2014notably during the GFC and other periods\u2014and incorporates the movement of bank stocks relative to overall market liquidity. As the chart shows, banks rebounded from their lows faster than the broader market (thanks to liquidity), but have since stalled and are now showing signs of a potential rollover. The next two panels display the relative movement of forward EPS to trailing EPS for the S&P 500\u2014which is now moving sideways, suggesting stagnant economic conditions\u2014and the S&P 500 itself, which is approaching prior highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Putting on my trader\u2019s hat, if the banks begin to roll over from current levels, this could very well set up an important top in the S&P 500 \u2014even with the recent surge in system-wide liquidity. This is unusual; surging liquidity has historically stabilized the banking sector, with the S&P typically rising alongside it. Is the declining dollar having a destabilizing effect on our banks? Furthermore, if the dollar is experiencing capital flight, could that be what\u2019s creating the gap shown in the first chart\u2014between corporate margins and the 10-year yield? The bottom line for this chart: as goes the banking system, so go risk assets and the broader economy\u2014which brings me to the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Greenback\u2019s Impact<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I’m not one to forecast the end of dollar supremacy or echo the many arguments against it, but I find the current movement in the dollar more curious than ever. The chart below shows my Dollar Model compared to the Dollar Index.<\/a> The model peaked before the end of 2024 and has been declining steadily since January. The spring bounce was sold into, and the dollar has continued to hover near its lows. As it bounces along those lows, interest rates\u2014as shown in the first chart\u2014have been climbing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From a technical perspective, the 99\u2013102 range has been a key support zone where buyers have stepped in over the past few years for the Dollar Index.<\/a> Prior to that, 102 served as the upper bound of the 96\u2013102 range. The recent bounce to 102, followed by consistent selling in the weeks since, suggests that further dollar weakness may be ahead. If 10-year yield<\/a>, have been sold en masse as the dollar has declined, does this imply, by extension, that interest rates are poised to climb further?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What follows next should be telling for the markets, the banking system and the economy. More on this in the week ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 4th June 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Brendan McCarty, CMT 1\/ Markets Gaming Tariffs 2\/ When Will the Inflation Matter? 3\/ Don\u2019t Forget Money 4\/ Banking System Rolling? 5\/ The Greenback\u2019s Impact Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1558,"featured_media":225170,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,16727,15,16,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[410,4345,1601,77,4677,910,186,317],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-225164","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-etps","9":"category-fixed-income","10":"category-forex","11":"category-macro","12":"category-north-america","13":"category-region","14":"category-securities","15":"category-stocks","16":"category-technical-analysis","17":"category-text-articles","18":"category-traders-insight","19":"tag-bitcoin","20":"tag-crb-index","21":"tag-dollar-index","22":"tag-fed","23":"tag-kbw-bkx-index","24":"tag-sp-500","25":"tag-usd","26":"tag-vix","27":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart 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