{"id":225100,"date":"2025-06-03T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-03T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=225100"},"modified":"2025-06-06T13:41:35","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T17:41:35","slug":"its-all-happening-here","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/its-all-happening-here\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s All Happening Here"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>About three weeks ago <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-buyers-are-us\/\">we did a study<\/a> that attributed whether gains in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) were coming primarily during US or overnight trading hours.&nbsp; We learned that for the course of the year to that date, we had gains during regular trading hours and losses overnight.&nbsp; This was in sharp contrast to the prior year, when nearly all the index\u2019 gains occurred during overnight sessions.&nbsp; (See the \u201cSince 1.1.25\u201d and \u201cCalendar 2024\u201d lines in the table below.)&nbsp; After a few days where SPX staged rallies throughout the main session, in some cases after some quick pullbacks, we wanted to see if this pattern held.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For reference, here is the original table below, published on May 15<sup>th<\/sup>, with data through May 9<sup>th<\/sup>.&nbsp; We used SPY, an ETF based upon SPX, because it has better defined opening levels than the index itself:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-2-1100x579.png\" alt=\"Attribution of SPY Returns\" class=\"wp-image-225102 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-2-1100x579.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-2-700x369.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-2-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-2-768x404.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture1-2.png 1206w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After updating the some of the most recent data, we see that the gains are becoming a bit more balanced in the past month.&nbsp; Note the contrast between the \u201cSince 4.7.25\u201d row and the results since May 1<sup>st<\/sup> in the table below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"199\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-1-1100x199.png\" alt=\"Attribution of SPY Returns revised with data through 6-2-25\" class=\"wp-image-225103 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-1-1100x199.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-1-700x126.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-1-300x54.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-1-768x139.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/Picture2-1.png 1208w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/199;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Had we included today\u2019s intraday results, it would have skewed the numbers somewhat more to the Open-Close column, since we opened roughly flat, then steadily rose throughout the session.&nbsp; Regardless, we can see that while the bulk of the gains this year have come from regular day trading \u2013 indicating that US buyers were in charge \u2013 the imbalance improved markedly in May.<br><br>Adding to the \u201cUS buyers in charge\u201d idea was a question posed by reader in a comment to yesterday\u2019s piece:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Here is another pattern for Steve to explain: Please deconstruct the flurry of activity at 3:50 PM Eastern time. It happens precisely at that time \u2013 down to he second. And why, at least initially, is it filled with massive index buying at least 87% of the time?<br><\/em>I haven\u2019t been able to verify those exact statistics yet, but I have noticed the tendency of SPX to rise just before the end of the session.&nbsp; That is the result of market-on-close orders from funds that have been seeing inflows in ETFs and other funds that are either linked directly to SPX, or that contain a heavy weight in SPX components.&nbsp; Funds that are linked to an index are marked at that index\u2019 close.&nbsp; Also, the performance of institutional buyside traders is often linked to some combination of the volume weighted average price (VWAP) and the close.&nbsp; Thus, if the fund has been seeing steady inflows, it behooves the institutional trader to leave some extra buying ammunition for the close.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because institutional market-on-close orders must be received well before the close, the NYSE and Nasdaq publish market-on-close imbalances at 3:50 each day.\u00a0 This allows all market participants to get a sense about whether there is likely to be a final surge of order flow in one direction or another.\u00a0 The logic is to allow traders to be able to get prepared ahead of potential market volatility and hopefully dampen its effect on the close.\u00a0 In practice, however, some traders of course try to game the system.\u00a0 On a day like yesterday or Friday, the first trading day of the new month and the last day of the prior, it is reasonable to expect either more inflows or some window dressing of positions.\u00a0 Yesterday, the bounce was very late, starting at about 3:57.\u00a0 On Friday, the bounce started at 3:00, with the final trades actually falling from the 3:57 level, but finishing nicely above the 3:00 level.\u00a0 Either way, the late bounces don\u2019t occur unless funds are seeing inflows.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>About three weeks ago we did a study that attributed whether gains in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) were coming primarily during US or overnight trading hours.  We learned that for the course of the year to that date, we had gains during regular trading hours and losses overnight.  This was in sharp contrast to the prior year, when nearly all the index\u2019 gains occurred during overnight sessions.  After a few days where SPX staged rallies throughout the main session, in some cases after some quick pullbacks, we wanted to see if this pattern held.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":225104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[14768,15159,18335,7590,10995],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-225100","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-economic-uncertainty","17":"tag-geopolitical-risks","18":"tag-inflation-concerns","19":"tag-investor-sentiment","20":"tag-market-volatility","21":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>It\u2019s All Happening Here | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"About three weeks ago we did a study that attributed whether gains in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) were coming primarily during US or overnight trading hours. 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We learned that for the course of the year to that date, we had gains during regular trading hours and losses overnight. This was in sharp contrast to the prior year, when nearly all the index\u2019 gains occurred during overnight sessions. 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/stocks-heatmap-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=225100"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225100\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/225104"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=225100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=225100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=225100"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=225100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}