{"id":225049,"date":"2025-06-03T10:55:50","date_gmt":"2025-06-03T14:55:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=225049"},"modified":"2025-06-03T14:42:34","modified_gmt":"2025-06-03T18:42:34","slug":"forecast-contracts-bank-of-canada-to-cut-or-hold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-contracts-bank-of-canada-to-cut-or-hold\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contracts: Bank of Canada To Cut or Hold?: June 3, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to be a hold at the 2.75% level. Our prediction marketplace prices 83% odds of a pause, as the \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> answer consistent with a benchmark level above 2.5% is priced at $0.83. But investors who are out of consensus and think a cut is on the way in less than 24 hours may want to buy the \u201cNo\u201d answer at the 2.5% threshold for $0.16. If the BoC steps down its key interest rate, the $0.16 purchase would pay $1.00. Furthermore, arbitragers can look at different markets that sport distinct<\/a> probabilities<\/a> and possibly benefit from the discrepancies<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

GDP Still Robust, Core Inflation Above Target<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The BoC is balancing the risks of a potential slowdown in economic growth against a possible re-acceleration of price pressures. But the latest GDP print surprised to the upside, sporting a quarter-over-quarter expansion of 0.5% while headline and core annualized inflation figures are at 1.7% and 2.5%. The justification for a hold is an economy that is still growing at a slightly better than 2% year-over-year pace amidst core charges being above the institution\u2019s 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 3, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada (BoC) is a widely expected to be a hold at the 2.75% level. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2267],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-225049","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-bank-of-canada","16":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nForecast 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