{"id":224956,"date":"2025-06-02T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224956"},"modified":"2025-06-03T03:32:28","modified_gmt":"2025-06-03T07:32:28","slug":"new-month-same-pattern","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/new-month-same-pattern\/","title":{"rendered":"New Month, Same Pattern"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On Friday we noted<\/a> that US indices were on pace for their best May in decades, and that became official at the close.\u00a0 After shaking off a -1% decline after a negative news item about widening China tariffs (our comment<\/a>: \u201cCue the dip buyers?\u201d), the late bout of window dressing and rally chasing pushed the S&P 500 (SPX) into solidly positive territory.\u00a0 That gave it the index\u2019 best May performance in 35 years.
Yes, you read that correctly.\u00a0 SPX\u2019 rise of +6.15% last month was the best May result since 1990\u2019s +9.20%.\u00a0 The Nasdaq 100\u2019s (NDX) +9.04% exceeded SPX\u2019 rally, but its outperformance \u201conly\u201d dates to 1997\u2019s +9.62% jump.\u00a0 For those of you who, for some reason, still follow the Dow Jones (INDU), that performance was by no means shabby, rising +3.94%, but it doesn\u2019t exceed 2020\u2019s +4.26%.\u00a0 Thanks to INDU being a price weighted, narrow average, that antiquated market measure\u2019s results were unduly hampered by the stunning plunge in UnitedHealth Group (UNH).
Those results were truly exceptional and showed the market\u2019s increasing ability to look through any negative tariff talk.\u00a0
Much has been said about the so-called \u201cTACO\u201d trade, an acronym coined by a Financial Times<\/em> columnist as shorthand for \u201cT<\/strong>rump A<\/strong>lways C<\/strong>hickens O<\/strong>ut\u201d, and while I\u2019m usually a fan of cute market phraseology (and chicken tacos, including Taco Bell\u2019s new Cantina version), I think it behooves investors to think of this phenomenon in nonpolitical terms.\u00a0 It is incredibly difficult to view political developments in an apolitical manner \u2013 particularly when they might affect you \u2013 but I\u2019ve learned the hard way that one\u2019s political opinions can all-too-easily cloud the objective judgments about investing that one must make.\u00a0 I try my best to do that here.\u00a0 Considering that I\u2019ve been accused in the comment section of simultaneously loving and hating both the current and prior administrations over the years, I\u2019d like to think that I\u2019ve done that at least to some degree.\u00a0
In that spirit, when asked to comment about the \u201cTACO\u201d trade to an international media publication<\/a>, I offered that the market\u2019s activity is a “nonpolitical way of the markets calling the administration’s bluff.”\u00a0 The President\u2019s negotiating strategy clearly utilizes uncertainty, and it has also become evident that investors have taken notice of the fact that all the most stringent tariff threats have either been ameliorated, postponed, or both.\u00a0 Thus, bad news on the tariff front is no longer being perceived as truly threatening, and the \u201chalf-life\u201d of each negative piece of tariff news is getting shorter by the day.\u00a0 We\u2019re not yet at the point where that type of news gets completely ignored, with traders simply skipping to \u201cbuy-the-dip\u201d even without a dip, but that seems possible.
Even without the flip to complete euphoria — where any news, good or bad, is somehow interpreted as good news \u2013 I have added a couple of steps to my recent trading rubric.\u00a0 Note the additions of #4, which explains today\u2019s rally after a minor selloff caused by the 10:00 ISM report, and #5, which accounts for Friday\u2019s rally after a breach \u2013 since confirmed \u2013 in the US-China tariff negotiations.\u00a0 I also adapted the step that is now #6.\u00a0 Rather than waiting until the afternoon, traders are beginning a little earlier.\u00a0 Starting the afternoon rally late in the morning, shortly after the European markets close, fits in more tightly with step #1.\u00a0\u00a0 And of course, step #7 will prove quite incorrect one day.\u00a0 But when?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Let pesky foreigners sell overnight<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Wake up and buy futures (optional: make coffee, brush teeth, shower)<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Watch for 8:30 economic news<\/em>\n
      \n
    • If positive, buy more<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • If negative, wait for dip, then buy more<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Watch for 10:00 economic news<\/em>\n
        \n
      • If positive, buy more<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • If negative, wait for dip, then buy more<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • If negative tariff news: wait for dip, then buy more<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Chase rallying markets after European close at 11:30<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Rinse, repeat<\/em>\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        On Friday we noted that US indices were on pace for their best May in decades, and that became official at the close.\u00a0 After shaking off a -1% decline after a negative news item about widening China tariffs (our comment: \u201cCue the dip buyers?\u201d), the late bout of window dressing and rally chasing pushed the S&P 500 (SPX) into solidly positive territory.\u00a0 That gave it the index\u2019 best May performance in 35 years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":224964,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18714,1383,558,207,199],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-224956","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-buy-the-dip-2","15":"tag-market-sentiment","16":"tag-ndx","17":"tag-spx","18":"tag-tariffs","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNew Month, Same Pattern | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/06\/repetition-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=224956"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224956\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/224964"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=224956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=224956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=224956"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=224956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}