{"id":224883,"date":"2025-05-30T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-30T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224883"},"modified":"2025-06-06T13:57:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T17:57:00","slug":"sentiment-improves-though-still-not-great","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/sentiment-improves-though-still-not-great\/","title":{"rendered":"Sentiment Improves, Though Still Not Great"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After a prior week that was largely <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/sell-in-may-or-dull-tape\/\">devoid of significant economic reports<\/a>, this shortened week featured several.&nbsp; For the most part, they were decent, including this morning\u2019s sentiment reports from the University of Michigan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/welcome-back\/\">Earlier this week<\/a> we noted that the Conference Board\u2019s report on Consumer Confidence\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u2026didn\u2019t just rise \u2013 it zoomed.&nbsp; The reading went from 85.7 to 98, a stunning 12.3-point jump that was more than 10 points above the 87.1 consensus.&nbsp;&nbsp; The improved sentiment was attributed easing of tariff tensions, since the survey was taken after the May 12<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;moratorium on China tariffs.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s UMich report wasn\u2019t quite as stunning, but it was solid.&nbsp; The main sentiment reading rose to 52.2, up from 50.8 and above the 51.5 consensus estimate.&nbsp; All the associated measures improved as well, with Current Conditions rising to 58.9 (57.6 prior, 58.0 exp), Expectations rising to 47.9 (46.5 prior, 47.7 exp), 1-Year Inflation falling to 6.6% (7.3% prior, 7.1% exp), and 5-10-Year Inflation falling to 4.2% (4.6% prior and expected).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All of those were solid improvements, though none of them are still what one would consider good.&nbsp; Sure, inflation expectations of 6.6% are far better than 7.3%, but they are still unacceptably high.&nbsp; Indeed, while the 52.2 sentiment reading was above last month, it is still flirting with multi-year lows.&nbsp; For that matter, the welcome jump in the Conference Board number only took that reading off Covid-level lows. People are certainly feeling better than they were, but one might describe this from moving from morose to malaise.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of the positive sentiment is likely to be a result of the improving stock market.&nbsp; Today is the last day of the best Mays in decades.&nbsp; As I type this, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is up +5.56% for the month.&nbsp; That would be the best May this century, exceeding the +5.31 reading of May 2009, which was the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> month of the rally that finished the Global Financial Crisis.&nbsp; The current reading of +8.36% for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) was last exceeded by May 2005\u2019s +8.58%.&nbsp; \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/sell-in-may-or-dull-tape\/\">Sell in May<\/a>\u201d certainly hasn\u2019t worked this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This afternoon remains an important question mark.&nbsp; One might expect institutional investors to be incentivized to do a bit of window dressing on the last day of the month.&nbsp; Yet some might be more willing to accept that their holdings have done so well that they don\u2019t need an additional boost.&nbsp; Other investors might be more concerned about position squaring ahead of the weekend and the new month.&nbsp; My gut leans toward the latter.&nbsp; The President was not thrilled at being accused of chickening out on his tariff threats and watching their (for now temporary) failure in the courts.&nbsp; It would not be out of the question for traders to fear an escalation to prove them wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(Note: As I was sending this for publication, a story hit the wires about the US planning wider China tech sanctions. Stocks quickly sank about -1% on the news.&nbsp; Cue the dip buyers?)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After a prior week that was largely devoid of significant economic reports, this shortened week featured several.  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