{"id":224794,"date":"2025-05-29T11:50:45","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T15:50:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224794"},"modified":"2025-05-29T14:47:38","modified_gmt":"2025-05-29T18:47:38","slug":"friday-expiration-opinions-for-forecast-contracts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/friday-expiration-opinions-for-forecast-contracts\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday Expiration Opinions for Forecast Contracts: May 29, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nos-for-canada-gdp\"><strong>\u201cNos\u201d For Canada GDP<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similar to the United States\u2019 weaker GDP print in the first quarter of the year, Canada\u2019s economic growth has slowed as well. Statistics Canada\u2019s April 30 GDP publication provided a preliminary estimate of 0.4% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. When looking at recent economic data, I think tomorrow\u2019s revision could be adjusted meaningfully to the downside, but I don\u2019t think a sharp upgrade is in the cards. In light of my expectation for a 0.3% rate of expansion, I like purchasing the \u201cNo\u201d answers at the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=773080465%7C20250530%7C0.6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">0.6%<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=773080465%7C20250530%7C1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1%<\/a> thresholds for $0.84 and $0.96. The combination trade costs a total of $1.80 and would deliver $2.00 back to the investors on a number at or below 0.6%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"782\" height=\"65\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-image-1-May-29-1.png\" alt=\"ForecastTrader Contract asking of Canada real GDP will exceed 0.6% in first quarter\" class=\"wp-image-224829 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 782px; aspect-ratio: 782\/65;width:914px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-image-1-May-29-1.png 782w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-image-1-May-29-1-700x58.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-image-1-May-29-1-300x25.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-image-1-May-29-1-768x64.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 782px) 100vw, 782px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"782\" height=\"62\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-2-May-29-1.png\" alt=\"ForecastTrader Contract asking of Canada real GDP will exceed 1 in first quarter\" class=\"wp-image-224831 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 782px; aspect-ratio: 782\/62;width:921px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-2-May-29-1.png 782w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-2-May-29-1-700x55.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-2-May-29-1-300x24.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-2-May-29-1-768x61.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 782px) 100vw, 782px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-yes-no-combo-for-us-pce\"><strong>\u201cYes\/No\u201d Combo For US PCE<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow\u2019s update on US inflation is expected to reflect a 2.2% year-over-year increase and the PCE figures have a heavy tendency to arrive near the median estimate. The reason for a subdued deviation rate is that the consumer and producer price indices are released earlier in the month and those inputs offer great predictability for the PCE. In light of the dynamic, I like a combination trade pairing the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=726203930%7C20250530%7C2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> 2%<\/a> threshold for $0.92 and the \u201cNo\u201d answer at the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=726203930%7C20250530%7C2.4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.4%<\/a> threshold for $0.94. This high-conviction trade idea costs a total of $1.86 and would deliver $2.00 back to the investor on a number as low as 2.1% or as high as 2.4%, providing wiggle room in case of a modest miss or significant beat. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"130\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-pix-3-May-29-1100x130.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US PCE will exceed 2% in April\" class=\"wp-image-224798 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-pix-3-May-29-1100x130.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-pix-3-May-29-700x82.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-pix-3-May-29-300x35.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-pix-3-May-29-768x90.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/FT-pix-3-May-29.png 1206w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/130;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"780\" height=\"83\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture54.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US PCE will exceed 2.4% in April\" class=\"wp-image-224800 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 780px; aspect-ratio: 780\/83;width:921px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture54.png 780w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture54-700x74.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture54-300x32.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture54-768x82.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-yes-for-umich-consumer-sentiment\"><strong>\u201cYes\u201d For UMich Consumer Sentiment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The initial read on the University of Michigan\u2019s Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 50.8 for this month and the institution is scheduled to release the final figure tomorrow morning. I see the potential for a significant upgrade because conditions in financial markets and on the trade front improved during the month, but I don\u2019t see strong odds for a significant downward revision. Furthermore, excluding the COVID-era downgrade of -6.8 in March 2020, the most significant adjustment was just -3.1. I like the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=626425612%7C20250530%7C47\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">47<\/a> threshold which is priced at $0.91, since a downward revision of 3.8 would be required for this trade to lose money. That\u2019s a stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"774\" height=\"77\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture5-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US consumer sentiment will exceed 47 in May\" class=\"wp-image-224802 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 774px; aspect-ratio: 774\/77;width:885px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture5-1.png 774w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture5-1-700x70.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture5-1-300x30.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture5-1-768x76.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 774px) 100vw, 774px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-double-nos-for-us-energy-production\"><strong>Double \u201cNos\u201d For US Energy Production<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow\u2019s thresholds nearest to 50-50 odds related to releases of US crude oil and natural gas production for the month of March are at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=727520270%7C20250530%7C13300\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">13.3 million barrels<\/a> per day and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=732764737%7C20250530%7C3250000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">3.25 billion cubic feet<\/a> for the entire month. I think the \u201cNo\u201d answers in combination offer a strong risk-reward profile, since prices for both commodities are down year-to-date, limiting production gains. The contracts cost $0.87 together and I think there are low odds that both will exceed the specified thresholds. Indeed, I believe the probability is much higher of both indicators failing to exceed the specified levels. Since the combination costs $0.87, only one needs to work out for the investor to receive $1.00 back. Now if both come in below, the investor would receive $2.00. Finally\u00a0the \u201cYes\u201d answers face the tall bars of nearing all-time high production levels amidst sinking energy prices in order to make a profit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"63\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture6-2.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if oil production will exceed 13,300 thousand barrels per day in March 2025\" class=\"wp-image-224803 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/63;width:822px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture6-2.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture6-2-300x30.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"784\" height=\"77\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture7-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if natural gas production will exceed 3,250,000 million cubic feet in March 2025.\" class=\"wp-image-224804 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 784px; aspect-ratio: 784\/77;width:825px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture7-1.png 784w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture7-1-700x69.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture7-1-300x29.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture7-1-768x75.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 784px) 100vw, 784px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 29, 2025. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Similar to the United States\u2019 weaker GDP print in the first quarter of the year, Canada\u2019s economic growth has slowed as well.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18199,19111,19583],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-224794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-canada-gdp","tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contract","tag-us-pce","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - 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