{"id":224728,"date":"2025-05-28T11:49:18","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T15:49:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224728"},"modified":"2025-05-28T12:45:17","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T16:45:17","slug":"corporate-profits-likely-slowed-in-the-first-quarter-alongside-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/corporate-profits-likely-slowed-in-the-first-quarter-alongside-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Corporate Profits Likely Slowed in The First Quarter, Alongside GDP: May 28, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Corporate profit growth has tended to come in below the pace of GDP expansion in the last few reports. In the three-year period beginning in the fourth quarter of 2021 through the final quarter of last year, average profits grew 1.7% on a quarter over quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized basis while real GDP averaged 2.7%, a full percentage point higher. The tendency to come in below GDP is interesting as it relates to corporate profit ForecastTrader contracts expiring tomorrow, alongside the second estimate of first-quarter GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering that first-quarter GDP printed at -0.3% alongside the historical trend of profits being lower than economic growth, I think it\u2019s going to be challenging for profits to expand at the same 5.9% rate of the fourth quarter. Another important fact though is that every time corporate profits exceeded 5% during the last three years, they have declined to below that level in the subsequent quarter. My estimate of tomorrow\u2019s figure is -1.5%, but I do acknowledge that the series is volatile and especially difficult to forecast. Furthermore, the first quarter\u2019s negative GDP number was unusual because of the liberation day tariffs and the associated surge in imports in March as businesses sought to avoid levies. Nonetheless, I like the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cNo\u201d answers at the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=658663567%7C20250529%7C4.9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">4.9%<\/a> 6.9%, 7.1%, 9.1%, 11.1% and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=658663567%7C20250529%7C13.1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">13.1%<\/a> thresholds, which range from $0.63 to $0.96 in price. For a potential home run, check out the \u201cNo\u201d answer at the 0.9% threshold, which costs just $0.08. Finally, and once again, exceeding 5% in consecutive quarters has not happened in the past three years, and I think it\u2019s highly unlikely it will occur tomorrow in light of the first estimate of first-quarter GDP being negative. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-28.png\" alt=\"Corporate  profits tend to lag GDP and haven't exceeded growth above 5% for consecutive quarter in over three years.\" class=\"wp-image-224730 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-28.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-28-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-28-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-28-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1077\" height=\"171\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-28-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if corporate profits will increase by more than 4.9% in the first quarter of this year.\" class=\"wp-image-224733 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-28-1.png 1077w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-28-1-700x111.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-28-1-300x48.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-28-1-768x122.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1077px) 100vw, 1077px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1077px; aspect-ratio: 1077\/171;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"543\" height=\"552\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-28.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding first-quarter 2025 corporate profits. \" class=\"wp-image-224732 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-28.png 543w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-28-300x305.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 543px) 100vw, 543px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 543px; aspect-ratio: 543\/552;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 28, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Corporate profit growth has tended to come in below the pace of GDP expansion in the last few reports.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":209044,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[7179,527,17937],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-224728","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-corporate-profits","16":"tag-gdp","17":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast 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