{"id":224511,"date":"2025-05-23T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224511"},"modified":"2025-05-27T11:54:57","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T15:54:57","slug":"so-much-for-a-quite-pre-holiday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/so-much-for-a-quite-pre-holiday\/","title":{"rendered":"So Much For a Quiet Pre-Holiday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>President Trump\u2019s double whammy of threats against Apple (AAPL) and the European Union was an unexpected blast to global markets. &nbsp;Opening more fronts on the trade war were exactly what traders hoping for a quiet end to a pre-holiday weekend did not need, and it clearly caught most off guard. &nbsp;I\u2019m sure that plans of many in the US to try to leave work early were dashed. &nbsp;It\u2019s not clear what prompted these statements, but they are emblematic of the type of volatility that we should always be prepared for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For those who missed the news, the following blasts arrived on Truth Social between 7 and 8AM EDT.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/technology\/trump-threatens-apple-with-25-tariff-on-foreign-made-iphones\/ar-AA1FlD2D?ocid=BingNewsSerp\">The first set<\/a> was directed squarely at AAPL, threatening a 25% tariff on iPhones that are not made in the US:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cI have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone\u2019s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,\u201d he wrote on Truth Social.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cIf that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S.,\u201d the president wrote.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, less than an hour later, the President suggested that all goods from the EU would be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/trump-threatens-a-50-tariff-on-the-eu\/ar-AA1FlHxU?ocid=BingNewsSerp\">subject to a 50% tariff<\/a> as early as June 1<sup>st<\/sup>, less than two weeks away:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cTheir powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes, ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against Americans Companies, and more, have led to a Trade Deficit with the U.S. of more than $250,000,000 a year, a number which is totally unacceptable,\u201d he wrote in a Truth Social post Friday morning.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cOur discussions with them are going nowhere!\u201d Trump wrote.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cTherefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the type of news that causes market inertia to be disrupted.&nbsp; While market momentum is not the same as physical momentum, I\u2019ve often asserted that Newton\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencefacts.net\/newtons-laws-of-motion.html\">First Law of Motion<\/a> broadly applies to markets as well:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>An object at rest remains at rest, and object in motion remains at a constant speed and in a straight line unless acted upon by an unbalanced force<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve already seen that tariff pronouncements disrupt the market\u2019s momentum on various occasions.&nbsp; And we\u2019ve also seen the market shrug off most of the perceived effects of them.&nbsp; As I type this, we are seeing traders doing their best to rally stocks off their lows.&nbsp; The chart below shows how pre-market ES futures meandered overnight, then plunged twice in the pre-open (the second rather precipitously), then bounced just ahead of the open.&nbsp; Since then, we have generally tried to grind higher, though there is still some ground to cover:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>ES June Futures, 1-Day, 1-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"563\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-1-1100x563.png\" alt=\"ES June Futures, 1-Day, 1-Minute Candles\" class=\"wp-image-224514 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-1-1100x563.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-1-700x358.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-1-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-1-768x393.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-1.png 1137w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/563;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps traders are keeping yesterday\u2019s late action in mind.&nbsp; We saw the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) grind higher all afternoon before giving back all its gains shortly before the close.&nbsp; It appears that traders were not eager to go home with long positions \u2013 something that worked well for the sellers today:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>SPX 2-Days, 2-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1003\" height=\"505\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-10.png\" alt=\"SPX 2-Days, 2-Minute Candles\" class=\"wp-image-224513 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-10.png 1003w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-10-700x352.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-10-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-10-768x387.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1003px) 100vw, 1003px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1003px; aspect-ratio: 1003\/505;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although there was plenty of market moving news this morning, it appears that there are some traders who will try to exploit the light volume to seek trading opportunities from the long side.&nbsp; \u201cDon\u2019t short a dull tape\u201d is a popular adage for a reason.&nbsp; Remember though, that while this afternoon might seem a bit dull after this morning\u2019s fireworks, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/sell-in-may-or-dull-tape\/\">as we noted recently<\/a>, there is no shortage of economic data and earnings reports coming our way in the coming short week.&nbsp; If you\u2019re in the US, enjoy the peace and quiet of the Memorial Day weekend, and take some time to reflect upon the sacrifices that brought us that holiday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Trump\u2019s double whammy of threats against Apple (AAPL) and the European Union was an unexpected blast to global markets.  Opening more fronts on the trade war were exactly what traders hoping for a quiet end to a pre-holiday weekend did not need, and it clearly caught most off guard.  I\u2019m sure that plans of many in the US to try to leave work early were dashed.  It\u2019s not clear what prompted these statements, but they are emblematic of the type of volatility that we should always be prepared for. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":224515,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3221,7590,10995,19535,262],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-224511","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-economic-data","15":"tag-investor-sentiment","16":"tag-market-volatility","17":"tag-pre-holiday-trading","18":"tag-spy","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>So Much For a Quiet Pre-Holiday | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"President Trump\u2019s double whammy of threats against Apple (AAPL) and the European Union was an unexpected blast to global markets. 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/leaving-work-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=224511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/224515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=224511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=224511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=224511"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=224511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}