{"id":224495,"date":"2025-05-23T10:51:54","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T14:51:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224495"},"modified":"2025-05-27T03:56:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T07:56:00","slug":"the-no-at-3-25-for-us-gasoline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/the-no-at-3-25-for-us-gasoline\/","title":{"rendered":"The \u201cNo\u201d at $3.25 For US Gasoline: May 23, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The average US gasoline price was $3.17 for the seven-day period ending on Monday, May 19. Meanwhile, trends in crude oil and gasoline futures signal a lower week for the newest figure due this Tuesday, reflecting the seven days leading up to May 26. I\u2019m expecting a result of $3.13. Against this backdrop, the \u201cNo” answer at the $3.25 threshold<\/a>, priced at $0.85, has a favorable risk-reward profile, in my opinion. Furthermore, it\u2019s been a level that the series has failed to exceed all year. Additionally, I also like the \u201cYes\u201d answer at $3.00<\/a>, which costs $0.93, since it\u2019s also a bar that gasoline prices have remained above year to date. Finally, the projected decline hasn\u2019t been sharp enough to pull the headline down to $3.00. This \u201cYes\u201d and \u00a0\u201cNo\u201d combination has worked every week in 2025 and this time adds up to a total cost of $1.78, that would deliver $2.00 back to the investor on a number as low as $3.01 or as high as $3.25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historical<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Gasoline<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 23, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The average US gasoline price was $3.17 for the seven-day period ending on Monday, May 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