{"id":224441,"date":"2025-05-22T12:38:39","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T16:38:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224441"},"modified":"2025-05-22T13:25:45","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T17:25:45","slug":"homes-sales-home-prices-and-singapore-cpi-forecasttrader-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/homes-sales-home-prices-and-singapore-cpi-forecasttrader-opportunities\/","title":{"rendered":"Directional Opinions for Tomorrow\u2019s Expirations: May 22, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>On deck for tomorrow\u2019s expiration day are US new home sales and the median price of those transactions, as well as Singapore\u2019s Consumer Price Index, all for the month of April. Below I\u2019ll highlight some high conviction trades for the three economic indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-home-sales-to-soften\"><strong>New Home Sales to Soften<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For new home sales I\u2019m expecting a number at 670,000, which is below the 692,000 median projection. Rising mortgage rates and high prices likely slowed down transactions last month from March\u2019s 724,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units, but probably not to a level below 635,000. In the past two years, closings have only been below that figure twice. In light of my estimate, those of my economist colleagues and the historical trend, I like the risk-reward profile of the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=751047539%7C20250523%7C635000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">635,000<\/a> threshold, which costs $0.82. I also like the \u201cYes\u201d answers at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=751047539%7C20250523%7C610000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">610,000<\/a> and 585,000 which are priced at $0.94 and $0.90, respectively.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-22-2025-1.png\" alt=\"Data showing that home sales have only fallen below 635,000 per month twice in the last two years and thresholds of ForecastTrader contracts.\" class=\"wp-image-224446 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-22-2025-1.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-22-2025-1-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-22-2025-1-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-22-2025-1-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1078\" height=\"139\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pix-2-May-22-FT-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if new single-family homes sales will exceed 635,000 in April 2025\" class=\"wp-image-224447 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pix-2-May-22-FT-1.png 1078w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pix-2-May-22-FT-1-700x90.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pix-2-May-22-FT-1-300x39.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pix-2-May-22-FT-1-768x99.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1078px) 100vw, 1078px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1078px; aspect-ratio: 1078\/139;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"855\" height=\"341\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-housing-sales-contract-prices-May-22.png\" alt=\"Prices of IBKR forecastTrader contracts addressing home sales. \" class=\"wp-image-224448 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-housing-sales-contract-prices-May-22.png 855w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-housing-sales-contract-prices-May-22-700x279.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-housing-sales-contract-prices-May-22-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-housing-sales-contract-prices-May-22-768x306.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 855px) 100vw, 855px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 855px; aspect-ratio: 855\/341;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-median-new-home-prices-won-t-reach-445k\"><strong>Median New Home Prices Won\u2019t Reach $445K<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Home price appreciation has slowed down significantly as buyers face challenging obstacles such as elevated mortgage rates and all-time high prices which together have weighed heavily on affordability dynamics. Meanwhile, the median price of new houses sold has only exceeded $445,000 one month in history, October of 2022. For that reason, I think purchasing the \u201cNo\u201d answer at the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=758853983%7C20250523%7C445000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$445,000<\/a> threshold for $0.93 is a safe play. Additionally, I also like the \u201cNos\u201d at $450,000, $455,000 and $460,000 which range from $0.94 to $0.96 in price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4-2.png\" alt=\"New single-family home prices \" class=\"wp-image-224450 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4-2.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4-2-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4-2-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4-2-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1078\" height=\"154\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pix-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-224452 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pix-5.png 1078w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pix-5-700x100.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pix-5-300x43.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pix-5-768x110.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1078px) 100vw, 1078px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1078px; aspect-ratio: 1078\/154;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"544\" height=\"287\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pricing-of-home-price-TFs-may-22.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR contracts addressing pricing\n\" class=\"wp-image-224453 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pricing-of-home-price-TFs-may-22.png 544w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/pricing-of-home-price-TFs-may-22-300x158.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 544px) 100vw, 544px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 544px; aspect-ratio: 544\/287;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bias-for-singapore-cpi-is-lower\"><strong>Bias For Singapore CPI is Lower<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To finalize, my expectation for tomorrow\u2019s Singapore Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at 0.7% on an annualized basis, below the consensus from my economist colleagues of 0.8%. Another consideration is that, out of the 16 forecasters in Refinitv\u2019s sample, the minimum projection is 0.5% while the maximum is 1%. I also believe the bias is to the downside shall the headline number differ from the anticipated 0.8%, due to slowing demand in the island-nation that has weighed on corporate pricing power. Indeed, the economy contracted in the first quarter as activity cooled. A modest beat can occur due to heavier import prices, but a significant move over the 0.8% expectation is improbable in my view. In conclusion, I like the \u201cNo\u201d answer at the 1% threshold which costs just $0.48. Furthermore, I also like the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cNos\u201d at 1.2% and 1.4% which are going for $0.85 and $0.92, respectively. Those with a higher risk tolerance and that want to go for a home run can purchase the \u201cNo\u201d at 0.8% for just $0.16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Singapore-first-pic.png\" alt=\"Singapore historical CPI results and forecast trader prices\" class=\"wp-image-224454 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Singapore-first-pic.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Singapore-first-pic-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Singapore-first-pic-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Singapore-first-pic-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"648\" height=\"60\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/singapore-pix-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-224455 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/singapore-pix-2.png 648w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/singapore-pix-2-300x28.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 648px) 100vw, 648px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 648px; aspect-ratio: 648\/60;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"562\" height=\"314\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/singapore-picture-3-May-22-2025.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts addressing Singapore CPI\" class=\"wp-image-224456 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/singapore-picture-3-May-22-2025.png 562w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/singapore-picture-3-May-22-2025-300x168.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 562px) 100vw, 562px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 562px; aspect-ratio: 562\/314;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 22, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On deck for tomorrow\u2019s expiration day are US new home sales and the median price of those transactions, as well as Singapore\u2019s Consumer Price Index, all for the month of April. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":220585,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19513,2543],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-224441","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-prediction-market","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-new-home-prices","16":"tag-new-home-sales","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Directional Opinions for Tomorrow\u2019s Expirations: May 22, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On deck for tomorrow\u2019s expiration day are US new home sales and the median price of those transactions, as well as Singapore\u2019s Consumer Price Index,...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224441\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Directional Opinions for Tomorrow\u2019s Expirations: May 22, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On deck for tomorrow\u2019s expiration day are US new home sales and the median price of those transactions, as well as Singapore\u2019s Consumer Price Index, all for the month of April.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/homes-sales-home-prices-and-singapore-cpi-forecasttrader-opportunities\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-22T16:38:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-22T17:25:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/home-sale-sign-featured-img-ForecastTrader.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/homes-sales-home-prices-and-singapore-cpi-forecasttrader-opportunities\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/homes-sales-home-prices-and-singapore-cpi-forecasttrader-opportunities\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": 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