{"id":224411,"date":"2025-05-23T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224411"},"modified":"2025-05-27T11:56:07","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T15:56:07","slug":"the-marqeta-house-of-cards-may-come-tumbling-down-an-fbi-investigationcould-prompt-mq-to-lose-up-to-70-of-its-business-future-revenue-looks-weak-for-this-dinosaur-of-a-pay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-marqeta-house-of-cards-may-come-tumbling-down-an-fbi-investigationcould-prompt-mq-to-lose-up-to-70-of-its-business-future-revenue-looks-weak-for-this-dinosaur-of-a-pay\/","title":{"rendered":"The Marqeta house of cards may come tumbling down"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><em><strong>Marqeta (MQ) is (mostly) a payment processor.\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>MQ helps fintechs host their own payments tools by contracting with a Banking as a Service (BaaS) partner bank to manage client deposits. As the intermediary, MQ earns a small percentage of swipe fees. Small banks looking for growth generally enter into these partnerships, and those banks often rely on the middleman processor for compliance<em><strong>.<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><strong>A collapsing MQ would be\u00a0just one more ina series of BaaS-related businesses to go under.<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0Since the 2023 troubles at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate, regulators have cracked down on BaaS providers, and companies like Synapse, Solid, and Evolve have folded under the weight of compliance failures and regulatory scrutiny. Big banks are disintermediating companies like MQ. The model is dying.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><strong>We have discovered<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0<em><strong>an FBI investigation<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0<em><strong>into MQ\u2019s partner, Sutton Bank, likely for alleged anti-money laundering (AML) failures<\/strong>.<\/em>\u00a0MQ\u2019s biggest client isCash App, which\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nam02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fjcapitalresearch.us17.list-manage.com%2Ftrack%2Fclick%3Fu%3D5ebcb6d98ed14cbb9868a865b%26id%3D04dc31f108%26e%3De53a169444&amp;data=05%7C02%7Cachica%40interactivebrokers.com%7C7a224fc9c8314882a99508dd992d8407%7C7abd04ef837d48e69ba869d84f65a110%7C0%7C0%7C638835142966624940%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=I7C2RwPb84NkyqhqepK286fGWOBUnaGydPBbodcTm38%3D&amp;reserved=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">has been credibly alleged<\/a>\u00a0to enable lawbreaking<em><strong>.<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0Those allegations have brought intense regulatory pressure to the tiny Ohio bank on which MQ depends for its processing of Cash App transactions.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/id\/AAQkADE0MDNlNWQyLTdhNmItNDc0OS1hNmEyLWNkZTUyODJmZDMzOAAQADzn4p4Rc5tNlnVV6lRYNGQ%3D#x__ftn1\">[1]<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If Sutton folds or pulls out of the partnership, we think MQ will shrink to a mere shadow of itself. Former executives with several years managing MQ\u2019s relationship with Sutton say\u00a0<em><strong>a switch would take years and is practically impossible.<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>MQ was once a pioneer of the BaaS model.<em><strong>\u00a0The tide turned in summer 2023<\/strong><\/em>, when MQ\u2019s largest customer, Cash App owner Block (formerly Square, XYZ), took back more authority over accounts and left the risky part\u2014clearing transactions\u2014to MQ. Since then, MQ is taking on small clients with high churn.\u00a0<em><strong>MQ expects another hit to revenue related to Cash App later this year<\/strong><\/em>. Far from a one-and-done, the damage from Block\u2019s redefinition of their relationship is ongoing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We think MQ is especially vulnerable to the squeeze on the BaaS sector.\u00a0<em><strong>Former executives call MQ a \u201cdinosaur.\u201d<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0One commented, \u201c<em><strong>It reminds me of AOL 25 years ago.<\/strong><\/em>\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><strong>MQ\u2019s regulatory headaches include potential bank liabilities<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0for over 50 mln account holders.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><strong>MQ\u2019s attempts to reinvent itself outside the risky Cash App processing business have not worked to sideline Block or CashApp. Revenue is excessively concentrated<\/strong><\/em>. New client wins like theFound Mastercard and Rain Card are small and niche<em><strong>,\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>whileonboarding times have ballooned from 150 to 200 days.\u00a0<em><strong>MQ\u2019s contracted backlog provides some preview of revenue, and that backlog has declined since Q1 2024<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><strong>MQ is obscuring its weakness with window dressing and an empty acquisition<\/strong><\/em>. We calculated a decline in gross profit margin for quarters when MQ reported growth in that metric.\u00a0<em><strong>Nor has MQ actually reduced its dependence on a single client<\/strong><\/em>. MQ is consistently getting lower payments per transaction<em><strong>.<\/strong><\/em>\u00a0A 2023 \u201cpre-revenue\u201d acquisition that cost almost $300 mln has done nothing for MQ.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>MQ hoped that higher-margin credit cards from the 2023 acquisition would make its technology relevant again. But\u00a0<em><strong>formers tell us that MQ has a negligible credit card business, probably sub 1%.<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><strong>Executives are being pushed out<\/strong><\/em>,\u00a0<em><strong>as MQ acts panicky<\/strong><\/em>: Formers have told us that top executives are being fired for failing to sign new partners. MQ CEO Simon Khalaf \u201cstepped down\u201d in February 2025, the day the company issued its 10K, and has been replaced by an interim CEO. Before Khalaf, former CEO\u00a0Jason Gardner stepped down as executive chairman in Q2 2024, apparently in a big hurry\u2014he forfeited a whopping $167.3 mln in compensation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><em><strong>We think expectations will be disappointed in Q2 or FY2025<\/strong><\/em>: MQ has not taken into account the macro headwinds its partner Block sees. It claims lighter regulation, but evidence tells a different story. Cost cutting looks like it\u2019s gone as far as it can.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jcapitalresearch.com\/mq.html\">Full Report at J Cap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted May 22, 2025 &#8211; <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jcapitalresearch.com\/mq.html\">The Marqeta house of cards may come tumbling down: an FBI investigation<br>could prompt MQ to lose up to 70% of its business. Future revenue looks weak for this \u201cdinosaur\u201d of a payments-processing company<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/outlook.office.com\/mail\/id\/AAQkADE0MDNlNWQyLTdhNmItNDc0OS1hNmEyLWNkZTUyODJmZDMzOAAQADzn4p4Rc5tNlnVV6lRYNGQ%3D#x__ftnref1\">[1]<\/a>Sutton explains its relationship with Cash App here:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.suttonbank.com\/services-tools\/tools\/prepaid-card-support.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.suttonbank.com\/services-tools\/tools\/prepaid-card-support.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Marqeta house of cards may come tumbling down: an FBI investigation<\/p>\n<p>could prompt MQ to lose up to 70% of its business. Future revenue looks weak for this \u201cdinosaur\u201d of a payments-processing company.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[19537,1006,7994,19538,17375],"contributors-categories":[13642],"class_list":{"0":"post-224411","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-north-america","7":"category-region","8":"category-securities","9":"category-stocks","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-fbi-investigation","13":"tag-fintech","14":"tag-marqeta","15":"tag-mq-stock","16":"tag-payment-technology","17":"contributors-categories-j-capital-research"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Marqeta house of cards may come tumbling down<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Marqeta house of cards may come tumbling down: an FBI investigationcould prompt MQ to lose up to 70% of its business. 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