{"id":224400,"date":"2025-05-22T04:55:21","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T08:55:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224400"},"modified":"2025-05-23T04:05:23","modified_gmt":"2025-05-23T08:05:23","slug":"chart-advisor-a-pure-play-in-the-bond-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-a-pure-play-in-the-bond-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: A Pure-Play in the Bond Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/\u00a0Annuities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/\u00a0Convertible Bonds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/\u00a0Bond Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Annuities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I was talking to my lead financial advisor at the office today (Kim), and I told her I was going to start today\u2019s Chart Advisor report with this chart (below) and she said, \u201cDon\u2019t do it!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(I\u2019m going to catch some flak from my fellow market technicians for this one!)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s start with this – I\u2019m not a huge fan of annuities\u2026 but I published an old podcast a few years ago titled\u00a0\u201cWhy Annuities Suck! \u2026aaand When They MIGHT Actually Make Financial Sense!\u201d<\/a>\u00a0If you have any interest in this old thing, click\u00a0HERE.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Annuities are generally expensive, commission-ridden, over-sold investments that might make sense for some people, for some of your money\u2026 but the problem is, many of the salespeople who sell them think they\u2019re the best investment for all people, for all of your money (and again, the problem lies in the commissions and high fees typically baked into these investments).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I know this is supposed to be about charts, but stay with me here\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the first two decades of my career, we literally allocated fixed annuities to three clients\u2019 portfolios. That was it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, since Jerome Powell started hiking rates, and for the first time in my career, some of these \u201ccrappy\u201d investments can actually make a lot of sense for many investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I could write an entire article on this topic, alone, but let\u2019s just keep thing simple and say that, these days, there are fixed, indexed annuities out there that have 5.5% rates (or better, depending on the options and \u201cbuckets\u201d chosen), and while these things aren\u2019t going to shoot he lights out, I want to drive home two points:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. If you\u2019re closing in on retirement (or already retired), who\u2019s ever been upset with 5.5%?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Most of the retirement plans we run for working professionals and business owners who hire us are modeled with net-after-tax-and-fees RORs in the 3.5 \u2013 5% range.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    So, at the risk of being burned at the stake by my fellow CMTs, I hate saying it \u2013 but it\u2019s true\u2026 there\u2019s a place for these things in a properly allocated, risk-adjusted portfolio, built for a pre-retiree or retiree who doesn\u2019t want the volatility of the bond market. #JustSayin\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Convertible Bonds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u2026which brings me to the REAL charts that people want to see. Let\u2019s talk about bonds \u2013 you know \u2013 the \u201csafe stuff,\u201d right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Truth be told, when observing the 26-week performance of 27 different bond sectors, convertible bonds are the only group ranked below money market on a relative basis that also happen to be trading above their 40-week moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Since convertible bonds correlate so closely to the stock market, this shouldn\u2019t be all that surprising \u2013 and it also means that convertibles aren\u2019t necessarily a pure \u201cbond\u201d play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Bond Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Let\u2019s finish up today by looking at an actual pure-play in the bond market with the top-ranked bond sector in my inventory today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There are other bond sectors that rank in the top quartile, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • World Inflation Protected Securities<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • 3-7 Year Treasuries<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Domestic TIPS<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Short-Term Corporate Bonds<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      It\u2019s been a choppy ocean out there in the bond market\u2026 but international corporate bonds have been leading the pack in terms of relative strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Below, you can see how there have been weeks when price fell below water for longer than most safety-conscious fixed income investors would be comfortable with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The lesson here is, pay attention to rates, don\u2019t assume bonds are always \u201csafe,\u201d and when considering the fixed income portion of your retirement portfolio, keep a newly open mind. We\u2019re living in a different interest rate environment than most are accustomed to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Originally posted 21st May 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      By\u00a0Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA 1\/\u00a0Annuities 2\/\u00a0Convertible Bonds 3\/\u00a0Bond Market Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":224401,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,15,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[16272,16323,16325],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-224400","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-annuity","18":"tag-ibnd","19":"tag-icvt","20":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: A Pure-Play in the Bond Market<\/title>\n<meta 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