{"id":224370,"date":"2025-05-21T12:03:07","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T16:03:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224370"},"modified":"2025-05-21T13:46:31","modified_gmt":"2025-05-21T17:46:31","slug":"initial-claims-opinion-for-tomorrows-expiry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/initial-claims-opinion-for-tomorrows-expiry\/","title":{"rendered":"Initial Claims Opinion For Tomorrow\u2019s Expiry: May 21, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Back to initial unemployment claims folks, I like the same trade as the last two weeks. Claims have stabilized with the last two reports printing at 229,000. But from a 4-week moving average perspective, they\u2019ve been north of 220,000 for 12 consecutive weeks and economists expect tomorrow morning\u2019s number to mark the 13<sup>th<\/sup> consecutive week above that threshold. The median estimate for tomorrow\u2019s figure is 230,000, essentially unchanged from the prior two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I like a combination trade in consideration of the historical data and current economic conditions. While my estimate is at 235,000, I think there\u2019s room for a notable move higher but not significantly lower. However, initial claims have not come in above 260,000 since October 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A high-conviction idea for tomorrow is pairing the \u201cYes\u201d answer at the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20250522%7C220000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">220,000<\/a> threshold for $0.72 and the \u201cNo\u201d answer at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20250522%7C260000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">260,000<\/a> for $0.93, costing a total of $1.65 and delivering $2.00 back to the investor on a number as low as 221,000 or as high as 260,000. Furthermore, I think the risk-reward profiles of the \u201cYes\u201d answers at the 180,000, 190,000, 200,000 and 210,000 thresholds that range from $0.97 to $0.87 in price are compelling. Finally, the \u201cNo\u201d answers at 270,000, 280,000, 290,000 and 300,000 also look attractive, costing either $0.94 or $0.95 each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-1.png\" alt=\"Historical unemployment claims and IBKR ForecastTrader Contract thresholds and pricing\" class=\"wp-image-224374 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-1.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-1-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-1-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-1-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"153\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-2-Forecast-Trader-May-21-1100x153.png\" alt=\"IBKR forecastTrader Contract asking if initial unemployment claims will exceed 220,000 for the week ending May 17, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-224375 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-2-Forecast-Trader-May-21-1100x153.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-2-Forecast-Trader-May-21-700x97.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-2-Forecast-Trader-May-21-300x42.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-2-Forecast-Trader-May-21-768x107.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-2-Forecast-Trader-May-21.png 1129w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/153;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"151\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-3-FT-May-21-1100x151.png\" alt=\"IBKR forecastTrader Contract asking if initial unemployment claims will exceed 260,000 for the week ending May 17, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-224376 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-3-FT-May-21-1100x151.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-3-FT-May-21-700x96.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-3-FT-May-21-300x41.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-3-FT-May-21-768x105.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Pic-3-FT-May-21.png 1144w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/151;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"388\" height=\"253\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4-FT-May-21.png\" alt=\"Pricing of No answers for IBKR forecastTrader Contracts regarding initial unemployment claims \" class=\"wp-image-224378 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4-FT-May-21.png 388w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4-FT-May-21-300x196.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 388px) 100vw, 388px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 388px; aspect-ratio: 388\/253;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"396\" height=\"221\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture-4-FT-May-21.png\" alt=\"Pricing of Yes answers for IBKR forecastTrader Contracts regarding initial unemployment claims \" class=\"wp-image-224377 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture-4-FT-May-21.png 396w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture-4-FT-May-21-300x167.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 396px) 100vw, 396px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 396px; aspect-ratio: 396\/221;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 21, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Back to initial unemployment claims folks, I like the same trade as the last two weeks. Claims have stabilized with the last two reports printing at 229,000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,3],"tags":[19111,18828],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-224370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-traders-insight","tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contract","tag-initial-unemployment-cliams","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Initial Claims Opinion For Tomorrow\u2019s Expiry: May 21, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Back to initial unemployment claims folks, I like the same trade as the last two weeks. 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Claims have stabilized with the last two reports printing at 229,000.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/initial-claims-opinion-for-tomorrows-expiry\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-21T16:03:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-21T17:46:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/unemployment-claim-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta 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