{"id":224268,"date":"2025-05-20T12:43:10","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T16:43:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224268"},"modified":"2025-05-21T03:48:59","modified_gmt":"2025-05-21T07:48:59","slug":"hong-kong-opportunity-surfaces-for-cpi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/hong-kong-opportunity-surfaces-for-cpi\/","title":{"rendered":"Hong Kong Opportunity Surfaces for CPI: May 20, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hong Kong has emerged as fertile territory for our ForecastTrader participants following the recent IBKR launch of predictive contracts linked to the special administrative region (SAR). Just days after a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-contract-opinions-for-tomorrows-permits-starts-hk-gdp\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">directional trade<\/a> costing $1.88 that addressed gross domestic product paid $2.00, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release slated for May 22 is presenting what I believe is an even more compelling opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To that end, I like the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=725452893%7C20250522%7C1.8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cNo\u201d<\/a> answer to the contract asking, \u201cWill the year-over-year change in the Hong Kong Consumer Price Index exceed 1.8% in April 2025?,\u201d which costs just $0.48. Consider the following factors that in my opinion make the contract appealing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The March CPI was only 1.4%, so a large increase, which is highly unlikely in my opinion, would be required for the \u201cNo\u201d answer to be incorrect.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The consensus estimate anticipates the CPI will remain unchanged at only 1.4%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>My own economic model, furthermore, calls for a print of 1.5% due to the SAR experiencing higher import costs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even after considering the impact of foreign products on the CPI, I believe it\u2019s highly unlikely that the index will exceed the 1.8% threshold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In conclusion, I also like the risk-reward profiles at the<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=725452893%7C20250522%7C2.3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> 2.3%<\/a>, 2.8% and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=725452893%7C20250522%7C3.3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">3.3%<\/a> thresholds with \u201cNo\u201d answers ranging from $0.90 to $0.96.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/first-picture-FT-May-20-2025.png\" alt=\"Historical results of Hong Kong CPI and IBKR ForecastTrader Contract thresholds\" class=\"wp-image-224271 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/first-picture-FT-May-20-2025.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/first-picture-FT-May-20-2025-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/first-picture-FT-May-20-2025-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/first-picture-FT-May-20-2025-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"147\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-contract-image-May-20.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if CPI will exceed 1.8% in April for Hong Kong\" class=\"wp-image-224272 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-contract-image-May-20.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-contract-image-May-20-700x110.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-contract-image-May-20-300x47.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-contract-image-May-20-768x121.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/147;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"424\" height=\"319\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-2.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding Hong Kong April CPI\" class=\"wp-image-224274 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-2.png 424w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-2-300x226.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 424px) 100vw, 424px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 424px; aspect-ratio: 424\/319;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 20, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hong Kong has emerged as fertile territory for our ForecastTrader participants following the recent IBKR launch of predictive contracts linked to the special administrative region (SAR). <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":224282,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19494],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-224268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-hong-kong-cpi","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hong Kong 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