{"id":224211,"date":"2025-05-20T09:28:17","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T13:28:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224211"},"modified":"2025-05-27T11:28:36","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T15:28:36","slug":"chart-advisor-spx-ascending","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-spx-ascending\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: SPX Ascending"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/\u00a0Why do they call them \u201cBull\u201d markets and \u201cBear\u201d markets?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/\u00a0200-day moving average (200MA)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/\u00a0Inverse Traffic Light<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why do they call them \u201cBull\u201d markets and \u201cBear\u201d markets?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the signs that we\u2019re in a good or bad market can be seen on the daily charts\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is said that, when the stock market opens strong, but finishes weak, this is evidence that we\u2019re in a weak, unhealthy bear market.  On the other hand, when the stock market opens weak<\/em>, but finishes strong<\/em>, this is evidence we\u2019re in a healthy bull market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why do they call them \u201cBull\u201d markets and \u201cBear\u201d markets?  Well\u2026 because bulls attack with their horns from the bottom-up, and bears attack with their claws from the top-down!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chart below shows the price action after Moody\u2019s downgraded the U.S. credit rating.  As you can clearly see, the market gapped down big (it doesn\u2019t get much weaker than that!).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then buyers stepped in, pushing up prices thru midday, followed by an intra-day pullback that had the market dancing around its open, only to see buyers take control at the end of the day, pushing the S&P500 to close positive on the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

200-day moving average (200MA)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another way to tell how healthy the stock market is \u2013 but this time, on a longer-term timeframe \u2013 is to observe:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Price movement<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Moving averages, and<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Momentum<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Moving averages are a way of smoothing out the choppy, shorter-term swings over a period of time \u2013 and you can pick any time period you want. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For instance, below, I used a 200-day moving average (200MA) \u2013 and I used a blue shaded area because, whenever the market (or an investment) is below certain moving averages, I like to use the analogy that it\u2019s \u201cbelow water,\u201d and investments, much like humans, can spend a short period of time below water before they start drowning!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, observing the market today, it\u2019s most certainly \u201cabove water.\u201d  In fact, it gapped up (i.e., it opened much higher in the morning after a lower, previous day close), above its 200MA, and has continued to follow through over the last five days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Then, in the lower pane, you can see a momentum indicator called RSI (Relative Strength Index), and in this case, I\u2019m using a 14-day RSI, which means it has a 14-day look-back period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n


    RSI shows us whether the bulls or bears are in control from a momentum perspective.  When it crosses below 30, it\u2019s considered to be in a \u201cbearish regime,\u201d until it crosses above 70, after which, the investment in question (in this case, the S&P500) is considered to be in a \u201cbullish regime.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Inverse Traffic Light<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I usually wait till the end of the month to create my \u201cInverse Traffic Light\u201d chart, but it seemed to \u201cfit\u201d today, so here goes nothing\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Similar to moving averages, you can draw horizontal lines of what we technicians call \u201csupport\u201d and \u201cresistance.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n


    Think of \u201csupport\u201d as a potential floor below your feet below which, things are expected to get worse.  Conversely, think of \u201cresistance\u201d as a potential ceiling over your head, above which, things are expected to get better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


    These metaphorical lines-in-the-sand are meant to be plotted at major highs and lows.  In other words, we plot these lines at places where either buyers stepped in, took over, and started pushing prices up\u2026 or other places where sellers overwhelmed the market and started pushing prices down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Like anything in life, the more you do it, the better you get, and you\u2019ll be fascinated by how many of these areas tend to relate to one another.  Many times, it\u2019s almost like a \u201cmarket magnet\u201d pulls prices to these lines of potential support and resistance, until they\u2019re broken, and that\u2019s when you really need to pay attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Below, in my \u201cInverse Traffic Light\u201d chart:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The bottom of the GREEN ZONE is marked by the summer \u201924 highs, the fall \u201924 lows, the pre-Strangulation Day recovery attempt, as well as this past week\u2019s pre-gap price level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The top of the DANGER ZONE is marked by spring \u201924 lows, as well as the Tariff Crash lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I also threw in a little \u201cextra\u201d line of potential support at the March \u201925 lows, which also happens to be right around the Strangulation Day cascade, a point during which, the market fell -10.5% in 2 days\u2026 the 5th-worst two day performance since 1950. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u2026and if you just can\u2019t get enough of this nerdy stuff, you can read more about that in yesterday\u2019s Investopedia Chart Advisor<\/a> report by clicking HERE<\/a>.  \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Originally posted 20th May 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    By\u00a0Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA 1\/\u00a0Why do they call them \u201cBull\u201d markets and \u201cBear\u201d markets? 2\/\u00a0200-day moving average (200MA) 3\/\u00a0Inverse Traffic Light Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":224212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[18672,16878,207],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-224211","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-technical-analysis","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-200-day-moving-average","16":"tag-relative-strength-index-rsi","17":"tag-spx","18":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: SPX 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