{"id":224191,"date":"2025-05-19T14:51:10","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T18:51:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224191"},"modified":"2025-05-27T12:43:48","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T16:43:48","slug":"investors-buy-the-dip-and-stocks-recover-from-morning-selloff","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-economic-landscape\/investors-buy-the-dip-and-stocks-recover-from-morning-selloff\/","title":{"rendered":"Investors Buy the Dip and Stocks Recover from Morning Selloff: May 19, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Market participants are paying no mind to the official reminder that the US could improve its fiscal health. Moody\u2019s announced a downgrade of the world\u2019s largest economy\u2019s credit rating due to its mounting debt load and significant deficits. But equity and fixed-income investors have had enough of the \u201cSell America\u201d mantra and chose to dive in and pick up stocks in most sectors as well as Treasuries across the curve following the initial volatility. Large-cap benchmarks have recovered from this morning\u2019s losses and are now strongly positive. In rates, the earlier spike has reversed at the short-end and is now much more tempered from the curve\u2019s belly out to the 30-year duration. Folks are also doing some buying in the forecast contract universe and the commodity complex ex nat gas but are trimming dollar exposure in response to the agency\u2019s downward adjustment regarding the nation&#8217;s financial condition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-moody-s-becomes-third-agency-to-downgrade-us-debt\"><strong>Moody\u2019s Becomes Third Agency to Downgrade US Debt<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Moody\u2019s Ratings wrapped up last week by downgrading the US\u2019s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, following similar actions by S&amp;P Global in 2011 and Fitch in 2023. In all three instances, the assessments are just one level below the figure indicating maximum reliability. In announcing the downgrade, Moody\u2019s cited ballooning federal debt and problematic budget deficits. The US currently has an annual deficit of nearly $2 trillion over $36 trillion in debt. <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=712856715%7C20251001%7C38\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IBKR ForecastTraders<\/a> assign a 64% likelihood that US obligations will exceed $38 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2025. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"127\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Cotract-US-deficit-1100x127.png\" alt=\"ForecastTrader Contract asking if US debt will exceed $38 trillion by the end of Fiscal Year 2025\" class=\"wp-image-224199 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Cotract-US-deficit-1100x127.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Cotract-US-deficit-700x81.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Cotract-US-deficit-300x35.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Cotract-US-deficit-768x89.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Cotract-US-deficit.png 1141w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/127;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-growth-solves-a-lot-of-problems\"><strong>Growth Solves a Lot of Problems<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Sovereign debt problems are common across the world. Rather than curtail deficit spending, governmental leaders have opted for the path of least resistance, kicking the can down the road as imposing austerity measures in the short term is damaging to economic activity and incumbent political decision makers as a result, thereby opening the door for opposing parties to appease the constituency. Furthermore, demographics have been a key factor, with aging populations generally favoring social benefits. So, in an environment where no one wants to cut outlays, for the most part, due to fear of lower and middle-income voters turning against them, no one wants to raise taxes either because that reduces the motivation of investors and employers that carry heavy influence and are instrumental in expanding the economy. In consideration of this challenging backdrop, the most practical mindset going forward is to focus on growth, a strategy that explains why the US has been able to maintain sizeable deficits while outperforming global peers by a wide margin from both a GDP and markets perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-international-roundup\"><strong>International Roundup<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-china-s-industrial-production-beats-expectations\"><strong>China\u2019s Industrial Production Beats Expectations<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s Industrial Production exceeded expectations in April despite decelerating and unemployment declined modestly, but home prices continued to fall and retail sales were weaker than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Industrial production was 6.1% higher year over year (y\/y), exceeding the estimate of 5.5% but slowing from March\u2019s 7.7%. A government spokesperson says industrial production was resilient because China increased trade with other partners in response to the US imposing significant tariffs on the country\u2019s products. As part of a 90-day truce, the US has rolled back the tariffs to 30%, which include a 10% general duty as well as a 20% levy due to China failing to meet President Trump\u2019s demands to curtail the illegal production of fentanyl. In another positive development, China\u2019s unemployment rate fell from 5.2% in March to 5.1% last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s real estate glut, however, continued to ding the economy with home prices falling 4% y\/y in April after weakening 4.5% in the preceding month. In another sign of economic distress, April retail sales grew only 5.1% y\/y, coming in beneath the 5.5% median estimate and slowing from the prior month\u2019s 5.9%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market participants are paying no mind to the official reminder that the US could improve its fiscal health.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":145029,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3121,10995,4995,7895,910],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-224191","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-buy-the-dip","15":"tag-market-volatility","16":"tag-nasdaq-composite","17":"tag-retail-investors","18":"tag-sp-500","19":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Investors Buy the Dip and Stocks Recover from Morning Selloff: May 19, 2025","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224191\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Investors Buy the Dip and Stocks Recover from Morning 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