{"id":224146,"date":"2025-05-19T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224146"},"modified":"2025-05-27T12:46:08","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T16:46:08","slug":"weekly-market-recap-may-19-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-may-19-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: May 19, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Core CPI rose 0.2% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales rose 0.1% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts increased 1.6% m\/m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PMIs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>New home sales<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, investors received data offering a first read on whether tariffs are starting to push prices higher. At first glance, they don\u2019t seem to be, with headline CPI rising just 0.2% m\/m\u2014a surprisingly soft outcome given the inflationary nature of tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The softness, however, was largely driven by cooling services inflation, which accounts for most of the CPI basket. Goods, which are subject to tariffs, make up only a fifth. Core goods prices rose 0.2% m\/m\u2014again below expectations, but enough to turn the y\/y reading positive for the first time since Dec. 2023. Digging deeper, some tariff-induced price pressures emerged, though unevenly. While some import-heavy categories like audio equipment (8.8%) and auto parts (2.2%) saw sharp m\/m gains, others, such as autos and apparel, showed surprising weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two factors help explain this uneven pass-through. First, many businesses appear to have built up inventory ahead of tariffs. As shown in the chart, categories like home furnishings, chemicals, and autos saw inventory growth in March well above 12-month averages, providing a buffer that has delayed price hikes. Second, producers are absorbing some costs. The Producer Price Index fell 0.5% m\/m in April\u2014the largest drop in five years\u2014suggesting that despite higher input costs from tariffs, producers are holding back on price hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, inventories will eventually run down. If tariffs persist, even at reduced levels, goods inflation could rise into the summer. A sooner-than-expected fiscal boost also presents an upside risk. All of this should keep the Fed patient. Meanwhile, international stocks continue to hold appeal, extending their lead over U.S. equities, where valuations once again appear stretched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1006\" height=\"398\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-19-102213.png\" alt=\"Inventory front-loading delays tariff-induced price pressures\" class=\"wp-image-224152 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-19-102213.png 1006w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-19-102213-700x277.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-19-102213-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-19-102213-768x304.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1006px) 100vw, 1006px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1006px; aspect-ratio: 1006\/398;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan<br>Asset Management.<br>Thought of the week: Source: BLS, Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P.<br>Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted May 19, 2025 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., May 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of May 19, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights uneven tariff impacts, with inventory buffers delaying price hikes despite rising core goods inflation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":224152,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14444,446,6854,4505,1546],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-224146","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-cpi-data","14":"tag-federal-reserve","15":"tag-housing-starts","16":"tag-producer-price-index","17":"tag-retail-sales","18":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) 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