{"id":224108,"date":"2025-05-16T12:42:27","date_gmt":"2025-05-16T16:42:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=224108"},"modified":"2025-05-16T13:36:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T17:36:03","slug":"directional-forecast-contract-trade-umich-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/directional-forecast-contract-trade-umich-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Directional Forecast Contract Trade: UMich Sentiment: May 16, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This morning\u2019s preliminary read on the University of Michigan\u2019s Consumer Sentiment Index was the second lowest of all time at 50.8. Meanwhile, forecast contracts based on the final reading, scheduled for release in 14 days on May 30, offer strong directional risk-reward profiles in my opinion. In light of the statistical history of the difference between initial and final reads, the greatest positive revision going back to October 2015 has been 3.1, while the most negative occurred in the depths of COVID, as March 2020\u2019s figure was downgraded by 6.8. Moreover, the average and median revisions since then in absolute terms are 0.97 and 0.75. In consideration of the dynamics, I like a directional combination trade against this backdrop consistent with the final number failing to exceed <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=626425612%7C20250530%7C53\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">53<\/a>, 55, 57, 59 and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=626425612%7C20250530%7C61\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">61<\/a>. Current prices are ranging from $0.16 to $0.95. The total cost of the \u201cNo\u201d answers across the specified thresholds is $3.04 and would deliver $5.00 back to investors on a number as high as 53, requiring an upgrade of 2.2, which is a tall bar at over double the average. Breaking the record of the highest revision ever with an upgrade of 4.3 during the examined time period would be required to reach 55.1, and even then, the investor would only lose $0.04, because he\/she would collect $3.00 from the other thresholds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-16.png\" alt=\"Historical revisions to consumer sentiment results\" class=\"wp-image-224110 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-16.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-16-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-16-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-16-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"57\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-16.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US Consumer Sentiment will exceed 55 in May.\" class=\"wp-image-224111 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-16.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-16-300x27.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/57;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"523\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-16.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader contract related to US consumer sentiment\" class=\"wp-image-224112 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-16.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-16-300x251.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/523;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 15, 2025.<\/em><em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning\u2019s preliminary read on the University of Michigan\u2019s Consumer Sentiment Index was the second lowest of all time at 50.8.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":221981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1576,18274,19483],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-224108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-consumer-sentiment","tag-forecasttrader","tag-home-builder-sentiment","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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