{"id":223878,"date":"2025-05-14T10:23:36","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T14:23:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223878"},"modified":"2025-05-15T03:35:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T07:35:51","slug":"chart-advisor-health-care-xlv-was-already-ugly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-health-care-xlv-was-already-ugly\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Health Care (XLV) was Already Ugly"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Ryan Redfern, CMT, ChFC<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Solid Continuation\u2026but\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Health Care (XLV) was Already Ugly<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ High Yield Can Help with Context<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Solid Continuation\u2026but\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuesday turned out to be another solid day for the Tech-leaning sectors and the NASDAQ 100 index. Yesterday I showed a list of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 and their headings on the RRG Graph, where the sectors with a \u201cNortheast\u201d heading were showing the most strength. As you may recall, those were: Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Technology (XLK), Industrials (XLI), Financials (XLF), and Communication (XLC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, for a day that saw a positive move in the S&P 500, there were 5 sectors that closed lower \u2013 none of which were on the \u201cNortheast\u201d list from yesterday. Additionally, there are now two additions to the South-bound direction: Health Care (XLV) and Utilities (XLU).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seeing the Health Care sector get hit today wasn\u2019t too surprising with the news that there is a potential for drug prices to be capped. Top stocks in the XLV ETF are names like: Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Labs, Merck, etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Health Care (XLV) was Already Ugly<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the Health Care (XLV) chart already looked ugly. If you got hit by that one today, you weren\u2019t paying attention. The \u201cdon\u2019t buy\u201d signs have been present and plentiful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current price for XLV has been solidly under the 200-day simple moving average since mid-March. Directional Movement has shown Red over Blue since mid-March. Directional Movement has become one of my go-to indicators since going through the CMT program. And the RRG Trend bars have also shown orange or red since mid-March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there was a nice attempt at a break above the mid-April highs, that attempt promptly failed on the first of May. Seeing higher-highs and higher-lows tend to be a good sign, but that ultimately didn\u2019t work out for XLV.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Going back to my comment from Monday regarding XLV on the RRG Chart: \u201cHealthcare appears as if it will skip the Green box and go straight back to Red.\u201d It is still holding onto its position in the Blue (Improving) box for now, but it won\u2019t take much to get it back into the Red (Lagging) box. Another weak sign for this sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

High Yield Can Help with Context<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An index that isn\u2019t always easy to find, but that helps me stay on the right side of the market, is the ICE Bank of America US High Yield Master II Index (MLHY- in FastTrack). Yes, that\u2019s the full name of it and you should know about it. And while it does, kind-of, act like the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), when using MLHY- with moving averages, it tends to have a smoother line with less whipsaws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I got this one from Rob Bernstein of RGB Capital many years ago and it reminds me that you don\u2019t have to take big risks to make decent \u201cequity-like\u201d returns. The high-yield market can be worth a look as an addition to an equity model as it can help you improve the risk-adjusted results of your portfolio. But, like any investment, it carries its own risks. So be sure to do your homework first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chart below is a one-year chart of the MLHY- with a 50-day moving average. Super simple. This lower volatility index suggests to me that market risk has greatly subsided and the market has resumed the up-trend that has been in place for quite some time now. Just another factor that helps keep me on the right side of the market. And at the end of the day, that\u2019s all that matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 14th May 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Ryan Redfern, CMT, ChFC 1\/ Solid Continuation\u2026but\u2026 2\/ Health Care (XLV) was Already Ugly 3\/ High Yield Can Help with Context Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":223880,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,15,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[4364,1321,1081,1058,1049,2006,2546,1302,3855,1323,219,1283],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-223878","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-stocks","14":"category-technical-analysis","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-financial-select-sector-spdr-fund-xlf","18":"tag-hyg","19":"tag-nasdaq-100","20":"tag-xlb","21":"tag-xlc","22":"tag-xlf","23":"tag-xli","24":"tag-xlk","25":"tag-xlre","26":"tag-xlu","27":"tag-xlv","28":"tag-xly","29":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart 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