{"id":223862,"date":"2025-05-14T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223862"},"modified":"2025-08-18T14:59:09","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T18:59:09","slug":"2025-global-temperature-prediction-markets-where-we-stand-in-may","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/2025-global-temperature-prediction-markets-where-we-stand-in-may\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 Global Temperature Prediction Markets: Where We Stand in May"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The global temperature data for April 2025 is rolling in. NOAA<\/a> and NASA<\/a> updated their datasets on May 9th, and Berkeley Earth<\/a> released its update on May 13th. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In NOAA\u2019s report (the data referenced in ForecastEx forecast contracts), April 2025 temperatures were 1.22\u00b0C (2.20\u00b0F) above the 20th-century average (calculated from 1901 to 2000) and 1.38\u00b0C (2.49\u00b0F) above the preindustrial average (calculated from 1850-1900). This makes April 2025 the second-warmest April globally in NOAA’s 176-year record, just 0.07\u00b0C (0.13\u00b0F) shy of the record set in April 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This keeps April consistent with the trend of 2025 being near or slightly below record levels: January was the warmest January on record, February was the 3rd warmest February, and March was tied for the 3rd warmest March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cumulatively, year-to-date (January through April) temperatures have been the second-warmest such period in NOAA’s record, with a temperature 1.28\u00b0C (2.30\u00b0F) higher than the 20th-century average and 1.44\u00b0C (2.78\u00b0F) higher than the preindustrial average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"global<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: NOAA Global Climate Report<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"global<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: NOAA Global Climate Report<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking Ahead to the Rest of 2025<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Long-term warming is driven primarily by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations from human activities like fossil fuel burning, but on monthly to decade timescales, global temperature variability is associated with a myriad of other drivers<\/a>, both natural (like the state of El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a, volcanic aerosols, the 11-year solar cycle) and a result of human activity (like changes in the amount and location of sulfate aerosol emissions). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The primary driver of monthly to annual variability in global temperature is the state of El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a<\/a>, where El Ni\u00f1os are associated with warming fluctuations and La Ni\u00f1as are associated with cooling fluctuations. We are currently neither in an El Ni\u00f1o nor a La Ni\u00f1a state (i.e., \u201cENSO neutral\u201d) after briefly experiencing a weak La Ni\u00f1a. NOAA\u2019s May 8th El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a discussion<\/a> forecasts over a 70% chance that we remain in neutral conditions through August and over a 50% chance that we remain in neutral conditions through October (with La Ni\u00f1a more likely than El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>). Since there is a several-month delay between the evolution of El Ni\u00f1os\/La Ni\u00f1as and their subsequent imprint on global temperature, this forecast of neutral conditions into the fall effectively means that it is unlikely this oscillation will substantially impact global temperature in 2025. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"official<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA publishes a statistical forecast<\/a> estimating the potential rankings of global annual temperatures by year-end, based on year-to-date data. This calculation does not utilize any weather or climate prediction models; instead, it relies on statistical simulations of possible outcomes based on historical monthly variability in global temperature. This method has the potential to neglect important information if there were a strong consensus regarding the progression of El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a, but the anticipated continuation of neutral conditions suggests that this approach is likely valid in this context. According to this analysis, 2025 has only a 3.4% chance of surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record. Berkeley Earth has the number notably higher at 18% for their dataset<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ramifications for 2025 Global Temperature Prediction Markets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The ForecastEx prediction markets<\/a> most directly related to the evolution of 2025 global temperatures are listed below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record?<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As of May 13th, the \u201cYes\u201d Forecast Contract was trading at 27%<\/a>. This is higher than Berkeley Earth\u2019s forecast of 18% and well above<\/em> NOAA’s internal model, which stands at 3.4%. Because the contract resolves based on NOAA data, the \u201cYes\u201d option on this contract appears to be considerably overpriced right now. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will the average Global Temperature in 2025 be greater than 1.3\u00b0C (2.34\u00b0F) above the 20th-century average?<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As of May 13, the \u201cYes\u201d Forecast Contract traded at 33%<\/a>. We are currently below 1.3\u00b0C (year to date is at 1.28\u00b0C, see first two figures above). The expected trend for the rest of the year is more likely downwards rather than upwards (for instance, La Ni\u00f1a is more probable than El Ni\u00f1o), and there is an ever-present background possibility of an unpredicted volcanic eruption that causes cooling. Thus, this \u201cYes\u201d might be a tad overpriced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will the Average Global Temperature for any month be greater than 1.75 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of 2025?<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Paris Agreement’s temperature targets of 1.5\u00b0C and 2.0\u00b0C refer to preindustrial levels, defined as the average global temperature between 1850 and 1900. However, the NOAA global temperature dataset uses the 1901\u20132000 average as its default baseline. Consequently, to align NOAA’s data<\/a> with the preindustrial baseline relevant to the Paris Agreement, an offset of 0.16\u00b0C must be added. When we add that offset to the 2025 monthly values that have come in so far, we get:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

January<\/a> reported by NOAA: 1.33\u00b0C; above preindustrial: 1.49\u00b0C<\/p>\n\n\n\n

February<\/a> reported by NOAA: 1.26\u00b0C; above preindustrial: 1.42\u00b0C<\/p>\n\n\n\n

March<\/a> reported by NOAA: 1.31\u00b0C; above preindustrial: 1.47\u00b0C<\/p>\n\n\n\n

April<\/a> reported by NOAA: 1.22\u00b0C; above preindustrial: 1.38\u00b0C<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Starting from the beginning of 2022, below is what NOAA temperature values look like relative to preindustrial, where the red line is the 1.75\u00b0C threshold specified in the Forecast Contract. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"monthly<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Data from NOAA<\/a>, plotted in Microsoft Excel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of May 13th, the \u201cYes\u201d for this Forecast Contract was trading at 11%<\/a>. This is a low probability, but again, since the expected trend for the rest of the year is more likely downwards rather than upwards, it seems exceptionally unlikely that a warming fluctuation large enough to breach the red 1.75\u00b0C threshold is in the cards in the next eight months. Thus, this \u201cYes\u201d seems overpriced as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted on May 14, 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The global temperature data for April 2025 is rolling in. NOAA and NASA updated their datasets on May 9th, and Berkeley Earth released its update on May 13th. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1601,"featured_media":218182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18971,17574,19454,19455],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-223862","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-forecast-contracts","15":"tag-forecastex","16":"tag-global-temperature","17":"tag-prediction-markets","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n2025 Global Temperature Prediction Markets: Where We Stand in May<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The global temperature data for April 2025 is rolling in. 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