{"id":223728,"date":"2025-05-12T12:22:07","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T16:22:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223728"},"modified":"2025-05-12T13:15:37","modified_gmt":"2025-05-12T17:15:37","slug":"forecast-contract-opinions-for-tomorrows-expirations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-contract-opinions-for-tomorrows-expirations\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Opinions for Tomorrow\u2019s Expirations: May 12, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have a packed week of Forecast Contract expirations ahead of us featuring over 10 settlements. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-contract-opinion-core-cpi-this-tuesday\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">core counterpart<\/a> and Singapore\u2019s GDP revision are on deck for tomorrow and some combination trades that I like involve buying \u201cYes\u201d answers with thresholds well below my expectations as well as \u201cNo\u201d answers with levels significantly above my projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the headline CPI, I like the risk-reward profiles of \u201cYes\u201d IBKR ForecastTrader contracts asking if the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index will exceed thresholds of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=712856682%7C20250513%7C1.9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1.9%<\/a> and 2.1% for $0.96 each and the \u201cNo\u201d answers at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=712856682%7C20250513%7C2.5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2.5%<\/a>, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.8% and 2.9% with prices ranging from $0.93 to $0.96. The total cost of this combination trade equals $6.65 and delivers $7.00 back to the investor on a figure as low as 2.2% or as high as 2.5%. Meanwhile, my projection of 2.3% differs from the consensus estimate of 2.4% and stakes are high with over 10,000 contracts and counting open and awaiting the Tuesday 8:30 a.m. ET result. Indeed, the CPI has emerged as one of our most popular contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"57\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-12.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contracted related to US CPI for April 2025\" class=\"wp-image-223732 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-12.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-12-300x27.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/57;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"573\" height=\"536\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-12.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader contracts related to US CPI for April\" class=\"wp-image-223733 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-12.png 573w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-12-300x281.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 573px) 100vw, 573px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 573px; aspect-ratio: 573\/536;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Singapore\u2019s final gross domestic product (GDP) print, I like buying the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=725452870%7C20250512%7C3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes<\/a>\u201d answer at 3% for $0.91 and the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF&amp;locale=en_US#\/market-details?id=725452870%7C20250512%7C5\">No<\/a>\u201d answers at 5% and 6% for $0.94 and $0.96. The total cost of the trade is $2.81 and delivers $3.00 back to the investor on a figure as low as 3.1% or as high as 5%. The initial reading for the island-nation\u2019s first-quarter GDP was 3.8% and I don\u2019t envision revisions as low as -0.8% or as high as 1.3% that would be required for this combination trade to lose money.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"552\" height=\"535\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-12.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader contracts related to Singapore gross domestic product growth. \" class=\"wp-image-223734 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-12.png 552w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-12-300x291.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 552px; aspect-ratio: 552\/535;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 12, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We have a packed week of Forecast Contract expirations ahead of us featuring over 10 settlements. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":206724,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2180,17937,19451],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-223728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-consumer-price-index","tag-ibkr-forecasttrader","tag-singapore-gross-domestic-product","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.9) - 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