{"id":223657,"date":"2025-05-09T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-09T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223657"},"modified":"2025-06-06T14:38:58","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T18:38:58","slug":"notes-from-the-options-industry-conference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/notes-from-the-options-industry-conference\/","title":{"rendered":"Notes from the Options Industry Conference"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I just spent the past three days quite productively at this year\u2019s Options Industry Conference.  Once again, I was privileged to participate on a first-day panel.  This year\u2019s was a high-level discussion about the state of the options industry.  Our main topics of discussion follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volumes are exploding and have been doing so since Covid.  Industry volumes rose roughly 50% per year in 2020 and 2021 and have continued to increase at double-digit percentage rates since then.  Since early 2023, much of the new volume growth has come from so-called \u201c0DTE\u201d options, the daily expirations on key ETFs and especially the Cboe\u2019s SPX index contract, which is cash settled<\/a>.  Many speculators prefer this methodology, since no shares change hands after expiry \u2013 just money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I attributed the first wave of growth to frustrated sports bettors during Covid.  Faithful readers know that this is a hypothesis I first raised as early as September 2020<\/a>.  But even though I acknowledged that gambling analogies are rarely welcome at a serious options gathering, I got nervous immediately after making them.  It occurred to me that an SEC Commissioner spoke immediately before us and therefore was probably in the room.  I was relieved later on when another attendee said she happened to sit next to him and seemed to nod and smirk knowingly when I made the comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For those who have not previously seen my theory, these are the key points.  First, we had just legalized sports gambling throughout most of the country when sports shut down.  It meant that many more people had become familiar with that type of odds making.   Then, most of the country was working from home and many received stimulus checks.  People are far more likely to take risks with \u201cfound money\u201d than with funds earned through their regular work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, newly minted options traders were quick to realize that the payoff structure on a call or put purchase is quite similar to that of a sports bet: it can offer a leveraged outcome with a defined initial outlay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Yet there three important additional benefits to options that new investors were also quick to implicitly realize:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Rather than one\u2019s payoff being limited to the initial odds, it can potentially be unlimited<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. If enough players take the same side of a sports bet, it changes the odds but has no effect on how an honest contest is decided.\u00a0 But if enough traders take the same side of the \u201cbet\u201d using options, it can favorably affect the outcome.\u00a0 The \u201cmeme-stock\u201d craze was an extreme example, but it became relatively normal to see hordes of options traders buying expiring weekly options on key stocks and ETFs on Friday afternoons<\/a>, rolling them into higher strikes when the underlying shares rose, than attempting to do it again.\u00a0 Sometimes they were successful several times<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. There are many more contests (contracts) on which to speculate.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    It also forced many formerly smug professionals to realize an important fact: the so-called \u201cdumb money is WAY smarter than the \u201csmart money<\/a>\u201d gives it credit for being.  Individual investors recognized a good opportunities and took full advantage of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A key topic of conversations was Nasdaq\u2019s filing<\/a> for Monday and Wednesday expiring options on key single stocks.  That is a necessary first step toward daily expirations on those names.  The current crop of daily expiring, or \u201c0DTE\u201d, options started by listing Mondays and Wednesdays in addition to Fridays.  The industry generally views this development as inevitable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I never believed<\/a> that the current 0DTE options create systemic risk, nor will these. They certainly could, however, introduce extra risks for unsuspecting traders \u2013 generally individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Most people don\u2019t realize that options don\u2019t expire when the markets close at 4PM EDT but instead at 5:30. That means that if a move happens after the close, a holder can issue contrary instructions.  That means exercising options that seemed out of the money at the close or choosing to lapse those that seemed in the money.  This is among the rights that an option purchasers pay for and an obligation that an options writers take on in exchange for receiving a payment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The potential for contrary exercises means that someone who wrote expiring options and thought they were properly hedged could find themselves with a nasty, difficult to hedge, position.  It hasn\u2019t been a major problem so far because most stocks don\u2019t issue news on Friday afternoons.  Nor do the major indices that underlie 0DTE options typically have big post-close moves during the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But what if a company gives a profit warning after the close?  Or what if earnings in a related company cause another to move.  (How might Nvidia (NVDA) react if Broadcom (AVGO) earnings reveal something about industry demand?)  Someone with a seemingly riskless position could end up with a terrible one.  There were several discussions about how to mitigate those risks, but no consensus yet.  That will be a key topic of conversation for the options industry in the weeks to come and almost certainly be part of next year\u2019s \u201cstate of the industry\u201d discussion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    I just spent the past three days quite productively at this year\u2019s Options Industry Conference.\u00a0 Once again, I was privileged to participate on a first-day panel.\u00a0 This year\u2019s was a high-level discussion about the state of the options industry. \u00a0Our main topics of discussion follow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":189205,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19774,16287,19772,19771,19773],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-223657","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-ai-in-trading","15":"tag-defined-outcome-etfs","16":"tag-maurice-conti-keynote","17":"tag-options-industry-conference-2025","18":"tag-retail-options-trading","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNotes 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/04\/options-trading-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/223657","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=223657"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/223657\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/189205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=223657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=223657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=223657"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=223657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}