{"id":223529,"date":"2025-05-07T11:20:37","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T15:20:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223529"},"modified":"2025-05-07T12:27:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T16:27:09","slug":"forecast-contracts-initial-claims-are-trending-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-contracts-initial-claims-are-trending-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contracts: Initial Claims Are Trending Higher: May 7, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Initial unemployment claims have been trending higher in recent months, with the four-week moving average remaining above 220,000 for 10 consecutive weeks. Forecasters believe that tomorrow morning\u2019s update will mark the eleventh, as the median estimate stands at 230,000. Meanwhile, weekly initial claims have failed to exceed 260,000 for 42 consecutive months going back to October of 2021. The recent rising trend, expectation of 230,000 and tendency to stay below 260,000 supports the argument for a combination strategy, in my opinion. In light of current pricing, I like buying the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20250508%7C220000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes<\/a>\u201d answer to the Contract asking, \u201cWill US Initial Jobless Claims exceed 220,000 for the week ending May 3, 2025?\u201d for $0.80 and the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20250508%7C260000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>\u201d answer at 260,000 for $0.92. The trade costs a total of $1.72 and pays out $2.00 on a figure as low as 221,000 or as high as 260,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-7.png\" alt=\"Historical range of unemployment claims and IBKR Forecasttrader contract thresholds and pricing\" class=\"wp-image-223533 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-7.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-7-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-7-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-7-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-forecastex-pick-of-the-week\"><strong>ForecastEx Pick of The Week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, I also like the \u201cYes\u201d answers at 190,000 and 200,000 for $0.96, as well as the \u201cYes\u201d answer at 210,000 for $0.95, which is the ForecastEx Pick of the Week. Additionally, I like the \u201cNo\u201d answers at 270,000 and 280,000 for $0.93 and $0.94, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"556\" height=\"529\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-7.png\" alt=\"Pricing of ForecastTrader Contracts for tomorrow's unemployment claims release\" class=\"wp-image-223534 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-7.png 556w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-7-300x285.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 556px) 100vw, 556px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 556px; aspect-ratio: 556\/529;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 7, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J.Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Initial unemployment claims have been trending higher in recent months, with the four-week moving average remaining above 220,000 for 10 consecutive weeks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19389,15688],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-223529","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-prediction-market","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-trade-of-the-wekk","16":"tag-unemployment-claims","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/unemployment-claim-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/223529","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=223529"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/223529\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/223537"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=223529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=223529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=223529"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=223529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}