{"id":223470,"date":"2025-05-06T13:53:09","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T17:53:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223470"},"modified":"2025-05-06T15:48:58","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T19:48:58","slug":"fed-funds-contracts-grow-even-more-popular","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/fed-funds-contracts-grow-even-more-popular\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Funds Contracts Grow Even More Popular: May 6, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The open interest in IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts tied to May Fed Funds ballooned yesterday from approximately 110,000 to 168,000 today and counting considering that trading ends at 11:59 p.m. CDT tonight. The staggering 24-hour difference as well as the total volume underscore that instruments addressing the central bank\u2019s monetary policy are among the most popular within our predictive marketplace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, I have a high degree of confidence that the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark steady tomorrow afternoon. In light of this conviction, I like a combination trade heading into the settlement day for one of our most popular contracts, May Fed Funds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I find buying the \u201cYes\u201d answer to the question, \u201cWill the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20250507%7C4.125\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">4.125%<\/a> at the FOMC meeting ending May 7, 2025?\u201d for $0.94 and the \u201cNo\u201d answer for the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20250507%7C4.375\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">4.375%<\/a> threshold priced at $0.97 attractive from a risk-reward standpoint. The total cost of the combination trade is $1.91 and delivers $2.00 back to the investor if the central bank keeps its rate steady at 4.375%, as expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, I also like the \u201cYes\u201d answers at 3.125%, 3.375% and 3.625% for $0.97, the \u201cYes\u201d answer at 3.875% for $0.99 and the \u201cNo\u201d answers at 4.625% and 4.875% for $0.97.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"68\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-6.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking Will the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 4.125% at the FOMC meeting ending May 7, 2025?\" class=\"wp-image-223472 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-6.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-6-300x33.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/68;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"507\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-6.png\" alt=\"Price of IBKR ForecastTrader contracts for different fed fund thresholds\" class=\"wp-image-223473 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-6.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May-6-300x244.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/507;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 6, 2025.<\/em> <em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J.Torres to highlight his preferred \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different thresholds.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The open interest in IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts tied to May Fed Funds ballooned yesterday from approximately 110,000 to 168,000 today and counting considering that trading ends at 11:59 p.m. CDT tonight. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210906,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[5462,8979,850,1504,5727],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-223470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-fed-funds","tag-futures-contracts","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-trading-volume","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 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