{"id":223391,"date":"2025-05-05T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223391"},"modified":"2025-05-06T12:05:39","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T16:05:39","slug":"wall-street-veteran-investor-lowers-recession-risk-as-us-china-trade-war-cools","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/wall-street-veteran-investor-lowers-recession-risk-as-us-china-trade-war-cools\/","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street Veteran Investor Lowers Recession Risk As US-China Trade War Cools"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">Zinger Key Points<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ed Yardeni lowers U.S. recession odds to 35% as U.S.-China trade talks show signs of progress.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kalshi betting market sees recession odds fall to 55%, down from 69% just a week earlier.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China and the U.S. appear ready to hit pause on tit-for-tat tariffs to pursue a potential trade agreement, inspiring Wall Street veteran investor&nbsp;<strong>Ed Yardeni<\/strong>&nbsp;to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/topic\/recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">dial back recession odds<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-happened\"><strong>What Happened<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Signs emerge that Washington, D.C. and Beijing may finally be willing to ease trade tensions that have rocked global markets&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/econ-s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">and dented economic confidence.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a note shared Monday, Yardeni said he&#8217;s reducing his subjective probability of a U.S. recession to 35%. That\u2019s down from 45% at the end of March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yardeni\u2019s new estimate matches the level seen in early March and reflects growing optimism that ongoing tariff disputes will de-escalate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;We are now lowering our odds of a recession back down to 35% because we believe that China and the US both may be ready to suspend their tariffs on each other while they negotiate a trade deal,&#8221; the Yardeni Research President said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;In other words, both sides may be starting to blink.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets have been rebounding sharply amid latest trade developments. Yardeni sees this as a reflection of confidence in a resolution and perhaps an early end to what he dubbed Trump&#8217;s \u201cReign of Tariffs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet, he isn&#8217;t blind to risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;There could still be supply disruptions resulting from the still unresolved trade war with China,&#8221; he said, noting that regional and national business surveys have indicated softening economic activity and rising prices through March and April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">CFTC-regulated prediction market Kalshi shows recession odds \u2014 defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product \u2014 have fallen from 69% a week ago to 55% as of early May. When Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th U.S. president, odds were just 19%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-it-matters\"><strong>Why It Matters<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the softening probability, Yardeni still considers the current economic environment fragile, citing heavy consumer exposure to financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;We had been concerned recently about the negative wealth effect on consumption because of the drop in stock prices,&#8221; Yardeni said, but recent gains in equity markets have alleviated that concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The S&amp;P 500 rallied sharply in April. Yardeni is weighing whether to revise his year-end target higher again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He initially forecasted 7,000 for 2025 but lowered that to 6,400 on March 5 and then to 6,000 by March 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;We are inclined to do so given the power of the V-shaped rally in the S&amp;P 500,&#8221; Yardeni said. &#8220;However, we aren&#8217;t ready to do so&#8221; due to ongoing earnings pressure and valuation concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On April 8, the price-to-earnings multiple for the index bottomed at 18.1 but rose to 20.5 by the end of April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest drag on earnings may still be tariffs, which Yardeni emphasized are &#8220;first and foremost taxes on domestic importers.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currently, the U.S. has imposed a 10% tariff on most imports, plus a 25% tariff on autos, aluminum and steel. Chinese goods have a staggering 145% levy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-s-next\"><strong>What\u2019s Next<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With corporate tax receipts totaling $502.19 billion over the past 12 months, Yardeni estimates tariffs could raise over $300 billion in duties in the coming year \u2014 a significant potential hit to corporate profits unless companies pass costs on to consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Trump needs to put the trade issue behind him to reduce the odds of a recession, which would harm the Republicans&#8217; chances of holding onto their slim majorities in both houses of Congress,&#8221; Yardeni said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Court challenges to Trump&#8217;s authority to impose tariffs under a national emergency declaration are also gaining traction. If the courts or political pressure force Trump to delay or drop the tariffs, Yardeni predicts it could trigger &#8220;a V-shaped stock-market bottom.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In his words: &#8220;We&#8217;re counting on that; the alternative is just plain ugly.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted May 5, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/economics\/macro-economic-events\/25\/05\/45192936\/wall-street-veteran-investor-lowers-recession-risk-as-us-china-trade-war-cools\">Wall Street Veteran Investor Lowers Recession Risk As US-China Trade War Cools<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China and the U.S. appear ready to hit pause on tit-for-tat tariffs to pursue a potential trade agreement, inspiring Wall Street veteran investor Ed Yardeni to dial back recession odds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":185293,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[17420,2678,18684,19058,19373],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":["post-223391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-asia","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-economic-forecast","tag-recession-risk","tag-tariff-policy","tag-us-china-trade-war","tag-wall-street-outlook","contributors-categories-benzinga"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - 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