{"id":223279,"date":"2025-05-02T11:25:08","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T15:25:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223279"},"modified":"2025-05-02T13:40:39","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T17:40:39","slug":"forecast-contracts-pope-of-the-catholic-church-hong-kong-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-contracts-pope-of-the-catholic-church-hong-kong-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contracts: Pope of the Catholic Church, Hong Kong GDP: May 2, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Our new election contracts feature a trip east to the Vatican, where Pietro Parolin and Luis Antontio Tagle are the top two favorites for becoming the new head of the Catholic Church following the passing of Pope Francis. Parolin and Tagle carry <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=781246610%7C20250531%7C3&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">25% and 21%<\/a> odds of reaching the helm while Peter Turkson, Matteo Zuppi and Peter Erdo sport probabilities of 15%, 13% and 6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"163\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-2.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader and the Pope election\" class=\"wp-image-223284 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-2.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-2-300x78.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/163;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-hong-kong-gdp-revision-opportunity\"><strong>Hong Kong GDP Revision Opportunity<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This morning\u2019s preliminary read of Hong Kong\u2019s first-quarter economic growth reflected a 3.1% year-over-year progression. The figure is due for revision on May 16, the same day that the associated <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=725452900%7C20250516%7C2.7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts<\/a> expire. In consideration of a number on May 16 that is near the initial 3.1% estimate, I like buying the \u201cYes\u201d answers on all six Contracts asking if the final result will exceed thresholds ranging from -1.8% to 2.2% and the \u201cNo\u201d answers on the three thresholds ranging from 3.7% to 5.2%. The total cost of the combination trade is $7.74 and would deliver $9.00 back to the investor on a final figure as low as 2.3% and as high as 3.7%. In addition to the $9.00 payout that would result if all nine thresholds are correct, the investor would also receive about two weeks\u2019 worth of interest-like incentive coupons that annualize at 3.83%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"559\" height=\"370\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-2.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts for Hong Kong first quarter GDP for thresholds ranging from -1.8 to 2.2%\" class=\"wp-image-223285 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-2.png 559w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-2-300x199.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 559px) 100vw, 559px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 559px; aspect-ratio: 559\/370;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"566\" height=\"543\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-may-2.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts for Hong Kong first quarter GDP for thresholds ranging from -.8 to 5.2%\" class=\"wp-image-223286 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-may-2.png 566w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-may-2-300x288.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 566px) 100vw, 566px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 566px; aspect-ratio: 566\/543;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Turning back to elections, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and San Antonio, Texas, Corey O\u2019 Connor and Gina Ortiz Jones are the favorites to win the democratic party mayoral primary in the former case and the mayor seat in the latter. O\u2019Connor\u2019s chances stand at<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=771326575%7C20250602%7C2&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> 63%<\/a> while Ortiz Jones is at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=771326580%7C20250521%7C5&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">40%<\/a>. O\u2019Connor\u2019s opponent, current Mayor Ed Gainey, is at 35% while Ortiz Jones\u2019s top adversaries, John Courage and Beto Altamirano, are at 17% and 11%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1132\" height=\"414\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-223322 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52.png 1132w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52-700x256.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52-1100x402.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52-300x110.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52-768x281.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1132px) 100vw, 1132px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1132px; aspect-ratio: 1132\/414;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1080\" height=\"353\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-53.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-223326 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-53.png 1080w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-53-700x229.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-53-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-53-768x251.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1080px; aspect-ratio: 1080\/353;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1062\" height=\"145\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-223331 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52-2.png 1062w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52-2-700x96.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52-2-300x41.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/image-52-2-768x105.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1062px) 100vw, 1062px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1062px; aspect-ratio: 1062\/145;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 2, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our new election contracts feature a trip east to the Vatican, where Pietro Parolin and Luis Antontio Tagle are the top two favorites for becoming the new head of the Catholic Church following the passing of Pope Francis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223288,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19109,19341,19340],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-223279","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-prediction-market","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-forecasttrader-contracts","16":"tag-hong-kong-gdp","17":"tag-the-pope","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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