{"id":223192,"date":"2025-05-01T13:21:14","date_gmt":"2025-05-01T17:21:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223192"},"modified":"2025-05-01T15:46:50","modified_gmt":"2025-05-01T19:46:50","slug":"forecastex-pick-of-the-week-nonfarm-payrolls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecastex-pick-of-the-week-nonfarm-payrolls\/","title":{"rendered":"ForecastEx Pick of The Week, Nonfarm Payrolls: May 1, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This week\u2019s ForecastEx pick of the week is tomorrow\u2019s headline nonfarm payrolls. Specifically, the case for a big beat has weakened recently following three consecutive days of lighter-than-expected labor data from the JOLTS, ADP and unemployment claims publications. Meanwhile, the median estimate in tomorrow\u2019s nonfarm payroll report for April is for 130,000 additions while our prediction market\u2019s midpoint is slightly higher at 138,000. Considering how the odds of a significant beat have declined during the last few days, the &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=582530257%7C20250502%7C220000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>&#8221; answer corresponding with a number at 220,000 or below for a cost of $0.82 offers an attractive risk-return profile, in my opinion. Additionally, the 3- and 12-month job growth averages are much lower at 157,000 and 152,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"840\" height=\"611\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-1.jpg\" alt=\"Job gains are likely to slow in tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls\" class=\"wp-image-223194 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-1.jpg 840w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-1-700x509.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-1-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture1-FT-May-1-768x559.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 840px) 100vw, 840px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 840px; aspect-ratio: 840\/611;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"58\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US Payroll increase will exceed 220,000 in  April\" class=\"wp-image-223195 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture2-FT-May-1-300x28.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/58;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-unemployment-expectations\"><strong>Unemployment Expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Our prediction market\u2019s expectation for the April unemployment rate, released in the same report as nonfarm payrolls, is for an unchanged 4.2%. Folks looking for a tick higher in joblessness can purchase the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=573031117%7C20250502%7C4.2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes<\/a>\u201d at 4.2% for $0.46 while those looking for a steady level or a decline can opt for the \u201cNo\u201d at\u00a04.2% for $0.52. Finally, for traders looking for a significant move higher or lower, the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=573031117%7C20250502%7C4.1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>\u201d at 4.1% is priced at $0.26 while the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=573031117%7C20250502%7C4.3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes<\/a>\u201d at 4.3% costs $0.19 at the moment. We also have many other thresholds, higher and lower, which you can examine below.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"65\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the US unemployment rate will exceed 4.1% in April. \" class=\"wp-image-223198 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture3-FT-May1-300x31.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/65;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"59\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4FT-May-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the US unemployment rate will exceed 4.2% in April. \" class=\"wp-image-223199 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4FT-May-1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture4FT-May-1-300x28.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/59;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"60\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture5-May-1-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the US unemployment rate will exceed 4.3% in April. \" class=\"wp-image-223200 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture5-May-1-FT.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture5-May-1-FT-300x29.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/60;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"554\" height=\"540\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture6-FT-May-1.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding payroll\" class=\"wp-image-223201 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture6-FT-May-1.png 554w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/05\/Picture6-FT-May-1-300x292.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 554px; aspect-ratio: 554\/540;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 1, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week\u2019s ForecastEx pick of the week is tomorrow\u2019s headline nonfarm payrolls. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":113983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[17937,3761],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-223192","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader","16":"tag-nonfarm-payrolls","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. 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