{"id":223089,"date":"2025-04-30T13:52:41","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T17:52:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223089"},"modified":"2025-04-30T13:52:44","modified_gmt":"2025-04-30T17:52:44","slug":"forecast-contract-opinions-range-bound-claims-final-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-contract-opinions-range-bound-claims-final-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Opinions: Range Bound Claims, Final GDP: April 30, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast contracts covering initial unemployment claims have been my go-to on Wednesdays recently, because the weekly labor data released on Thursdays have been stuck in a range. Rare surges coupled with a tendency for results to remain above 210,000 compel me to point to the \u201cYes\u201d answer for the IBKR ForecastTrader <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20250515%7C210000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Contract<\/a> asking, \u201cWill US initial jobless claims exceed 210,000 for the week ending April 26, 2025?\u201d and the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20250515%7C250000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>\u201d answer at 250,000 for a total cost of $1.77. In the past 52 weeks, claims have surpassed 250,000 just once and during the past 61 weeks they have been at or below 210,000 only five times. Finally, the consensus expects another number near the 1-year average with the median estimate standing at 224,000 for tomorrow\u2019s 8:30 am ET release. If the result is near the median estimate, exceeding 210,000 but failing to arrive above 250,000, then the trade delivers $2.00 to the investor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-apirl-30.png\" alt=\"Historical range of initial unemployment claims and thresholds of forecast contracts. \" class=\"wp-image-223093 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-apirl-30.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-apirl-30-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-apirl-30-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-apirl-30-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"62\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-14.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if initial unemployment claims will 210,000 for the week ending April 26\" class=\"wp-image-223094 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-14.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-14-300x30.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/62;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"61\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-FT-April-30.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if initial unemployment claims will 250,000 for the week ending April 26\" class=\"wp-image-223095 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-FT-April-30.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-FT-April-30-300x29.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/61;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gdp-contracts-present-another-compelling-opportunity\"><strong>GDP Contracts Present Another Compelling Opportunity<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With today\u2019s preliminary first-quarter GDP report pointing to the economy contracting 0.3% and a revision of -0.7% being significantly unlikely, I like buying the \u201cYes\u201d answers to contracts asking if GDP will exceed <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=712856689%7C20250626%7C-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">-1%<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=712856689%7C20250626%7C-1.5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">-1.5%<\/a> for the final June 26 print. They are priced at $0.66 and $0.89 resulting in a total outlay of $1.55 and would pay out $2.00 to an adjusted figure no lower than -0.9%. Furthermore, because the contracts settle in almost two months, the investor will gain interest-like incentive coupons that are paid in proportion to shifting market values at an annualized rate of 3.83%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"59\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-April-30.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if first quarter GDP growth will exceed -1%\" class=\"wp-image-223096 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-April-30.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-April-30-300x28.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/59;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"541\" height=\"85\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-April-30.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader GDP contracts\" class=\"wp-image-223097 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-April-30.png 541w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-April-30-300x47.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 541px) 100vw, 541px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 541px; aspect-ratio: 541\/85;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 30, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Forecast contracts covering initial unemployment claims have been my go-to on Wednesdays recently, because the weekly labor data released on Thursdays have been stuck in a range. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":221152,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[527,17937,15688],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-223089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-gdp","tag-ibkr-forecasttrader","tag-unemployment-claims","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Forecast Contract Opinions: Range Bound Claims, Final GDP: April 30, 2025","description":"Forecast contracts covering initial unemployment claims have been my go-to on Wednesdays recently, because the weekly labor data released on 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