{"id":223069,"date":"2025-04-30T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=223069"},"modified":"2025-06-06T14:52:34","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T18:52:34","slug":"undercut-by-some-slowdown-concerns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/undercut-by-some-slowdown-concerns\/","title":{"rendered":"Undercut by some slowdown concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today is a jam-packed day of earnings news and economic data. The equity futures market has backtracked, undercut by some growth concerns and expectations for some consolidation following a huge rebound by the market that has featured six straight winning sessions for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are down 76 points and are trading 1.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 374 points and are trading 1.9% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 348 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a little something for everyone in today&#8217;s news flow, so it wouldn&#8217;t be surprising to see some seesawing in the market following today&#8217;s open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dow component&nbsp;<strong>Caterpillar (CAT)<\/strong>, which came up shy of Q1 consensus estimates, has seesawed in pre-market trading. It had been down as much as 6% but is now up 1.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Caterpillar was a headliner on an earnings calendar that also featured reports from&nbsp;<strong>Visa (V), Starbucks (SBUX), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Mondelez Intl. (MDLZ), Snap (SNAP), First Solar (FSLR), Seagate Technology (STX), Humana (HUM)<\/strong>, and&nbsp;<strong>Stanley Black &amp; Decker (SWK)&nbsp;<\/strong>to name a few.&nbsp;<strong>Microsoft (MSFT)<\/strong>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<strong>Meta Platforms (META)<\/strong>&nbsp;are the main luminaries reporting results after today&#8217;s close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are too many results to cover in this space, so be sure to visit Briefing.com&#8217;s Earnings Results Calendar for the full rundown. The responses, in general, have varied. Starbucks, for instance, is down 9.7% as it deals with some company-specific matters on top of macro issues, whereas&nbsp;<strong>Seagate Technology (STX)<\/strong>&nbsp;is up 5.9% following its report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Super Micro Computer (SMCI)<\/strong>, which didn&#8217;t report results but instead issued a fiscal Q3 warning that was attributed to some delays in customer decisions, is down nearly 20%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That brings us to the economic data. China reported some disappointing manufacturing and services PMI data for April; however, the eurozone saw better-than-expected 0.4% qtr\/qtr GDP growth in Q1. As for the U.S. reports this morning, they are as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>MBA Mortgage Applications Index -4.2% wk\/wk, with refinance applications down 4% and purchase applications down 4%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The April ADP Employment Change Report showed an estimated 62,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls (Briefing.com consensus 128,000), and the pay for job-stayers rose 4.5% year-over-year, which was a slight deceleration from March.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Q1 Employment Cost Index was up 0.9%, as expected, for the three-month period ending in March 2025, following a 0.9% increase for the three-month period ending in December 2024. Wages and salaries increased 0.8%, versus 1.0% for the prior quarter, and benefit costs jumped 1.2%, versus 0.8% for the prior quarter.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The key takeaway from the report is that employment costs have softened year-over-year, with compensation costs increasing 3.6% for the 12 months ending in March 2025, versus 4.2% for the 12 months ending in March 2024.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Adv. Q1 GDP report showed a 0.3% decline in real GDP (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), with net exports subtracting 4.83 percentage points from growth, following a 2.4% increase in Q4. The GDP Price Deflator jumped 3.7% (Briefing.com consensus 3.1%) following a 2.3% increase in Q4.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The key takeaway from the report is that there was obvious frontrunning of the tariff measures, which showed up in a 41.3% increase in imports. Separately, consumer spending growth was decent at 1.8%, yet that was a marked slowdown from the 4.0% growth seen in Q4.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Treasury market, it seems, keyed in on the GDP Price Deflator. The 10-yr note yield spiked from 4.14% to 4.22% soon after the GDP release, but has backed down to 4.19%, up two basis points from yesterday&#8217;s settlement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted April 30, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">Undercut by some slowdown concerns<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today is a jam-packed day of earnings news and economic data. The equity futures market has backtracked, undercut by some growth concerns and expectations for some consolidation following a huge rebound by the market that has featured six straight winning sessions for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&amp;P 500.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[18683,5753,18335,7590,10995],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":{"0":"post-223069","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-economic-slowdown","14":"tag-federal-reserve-policy","15":"tag-inflation-concerns","16":"tag-investor-sentiment","17":"tag-market-volatility","18":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Undercut by some slowdown concerns | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Today is a jam-packed day of earnings news and economic data. 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