{"id":222929,"date":"2025-04-29T14:05:36","date_gmt":"2025-04-29T18:05:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=222929"},"modified":"2025-04-29T14:05:38","modified_gmt":"2025-04-29T18:05:38","slug":"forecast-contract-opinions-payrolls-gdp-pce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-contract-opinions-payrolls-gdp-pce\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Opinions: Payrolls, GDP, PCE: April 29, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A slam dunk opportunity has arisen for this Friday\u2019s nonfarm payrolls in my opinion. A number in-line or near the consensus expectation of 135,000 would deliver a double and pay $2, but the beauty of this trade is that only $0.03 would be at risk. Let me explain. Buying the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=582530257%7C20250502%7C120000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes<\/a>\u201d answer to the question \u201cWill the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed 120,000 in April 2025?\u201d for $0.52 and the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=582530257%7C20250502%7C170000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>\u201d answer at the 170,000 threshold for $0.51 costs a total of $1.03 and would deliver $2.00 back to the investor on a number as low as 121,000 and as high as 170,000. The strong appeal of this trade folks is that a number below 120,000 or above 170,000 only results in a loss of $0.03, because one of the two contracts are guaranteed to pay out $1.00 and the total cost of the trade is just $1.03.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-april-29.png\" alt=\"Historical range of nonfarm payroll additions and thresholds for IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts\" class=\"wp-image-222947 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-april-29.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-april-29-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-april-29-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-april-29-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"57\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-April-29.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if increase in US Payroll Employment will exceed 120,000 in April 2025.\" class=\"wp-image-222948 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-April-29.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-April-29-300x27.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/57;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"57\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-FT-April-29.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if increase in US Payroll Employment will exceed 170,000 in April 2025.\" class=\"wp-image-222949 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-FT-April-29.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-FT-April-29-300x27.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/57;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, tomorrow\u2019s forecast contract expirations include the PCE price index and two contracts\u2014natural gas and crude oil production\u2014that I featured yesterday. The PCE indicator is well-telegraphed by Wall Street, meaning that it usually arrives near expectations because many of its inputs can be found in the indices for consumer and producer prices that are released earlier in the month. The median estimate for tomorrow\u2019s 8:30 a.m. ET figure is 2.2%. Against this backdrop, I like a combination trade of buying the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=726203930%7C20250430%7C2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes<\/a>\u201d answer to the question \u201cWill the year-over-year change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceed 2%?\u201d for $0.95 and the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=726203930%7C20250430%7C2.4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>\u201d answer at 2.4% for $0.90. The total cost of the trade is $1.85 and delivers $2.00 back to the investor on a result ranging from as low as 2.1% to as high as 2.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-April-29.png\" alt=\"The median PCE estimate for this week's print is 2.2%\" class=\"wp-image-222951 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-April-29.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-April-29-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-April-29-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-April-29-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"67\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-April-29.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US Personal Consumption Expenditures Index will exceed 2% in March 2025\" class=\"wp-image-222953 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-April-29.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-April-29-300x32.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/67;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"108\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT-April-29.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US Personal Consumption Expenditures Index will exceed 2.4% in March 2025\" class=\"wp-image-222956 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/108;width:622px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT-April-29.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT-April-29-700x78.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT-April-29-300x33.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT-April-29-768x85.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Also tomorrow, we get our preliminary read on first-quarter GDP. Economists expect a 0.4% pace of growth. Our forecast contracts settle on June 26, however, when the final figure is reported. The gap between the initial print and the final reading offers investors an opportunity to select contracts and then collect interest-like incentive coupons at an annualized rate of 3.83% on shifting market values until expiration in almost two months. A trade I like going into tomorrow\u2019s initial read is buying the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=712856689%7C20250626%7C-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes<\/a>\u201d answer at -1% for $0.80 and the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=712856689%7C20250626%7C1.5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>\u201d answer at 1.5% for $0.82. The combination trade costs a total of $1.62 and would deliver $2.00 back to the investor on a final GDP print as low as -0.9% or as high as 1.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture7-FT-april-29.png\" alt=\"Economic growth is likely to weaken \" class=\"wp-image-222959 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture7-FT-april-29.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture7-FT-april-29-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture7-FT-april-29-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture7-FT-april-29-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"60\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture8-FT-April-8.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US Real GDP will exceed -1% in Q1 2025\" class=\"wp-image-222961 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture8-FT-April-8.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture8-FT-April-8-300x29.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/60;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"56\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture9-FT-April-29.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US Real GDP will exceed 1.5% in Q1 2025\" class=\"wp-image-222962 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture9-FT-April-29.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture9-FT-April-29-300x27.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/56;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 29, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A slam dunk opportunity has arisen for this Friday\u2019s nonfarm payrolls in my opinion. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":212770,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19293,527,10037,19292],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-222929","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-prediction-market","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-gas-production","16":"tag-gdp","17":"tag-oil-production","18":"tag-payroll-additions","19":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast Contract Opinions: Payrolls, GDP, PCE: April 29, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A slam dunk opportunity has arisen for this Friday\u2019s nonfarm payrolls in my opinion. double win and pay $2, but the beauty of this trade is that only...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222929\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast Contract Opinions: Payrolls, GDP, PCE: April 29, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A slam dunk opportunity has arisen for this Friday\u2019s nonfarm payrolls in my opinion. double win and pay $2, but the beauty of this trade is that only $0.03 would be at risk.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-contract-opinions-payrolls-gdp-pce\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-29T18:05:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-04-29T18:05:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/10\/help-wanted-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecast-contract-opinions-payrolls-gdp-pce\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecast-contract-opinions-payrolls-gdp-pce\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Forecast Contract Opinions: 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