{"id":222644,"date":"2025-04-24T13:23:10","date_gmt":"2025-04-24T17:23:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=222644"},"modified":"2025-04-24T13:23:12","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T17:23:12","slug":"forecastex-pick-of-the-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/forecastex-pick-of-the-week\/","title":{"rendered":"ForecastEx Pick of the Week: April 24, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow\u2019s final consumer sentiment read from the University of Michigan for April is unique to many of our other economic indicator offerings because we received a preliminary print on April 11. The initial read from April 11 can serve as a guide to evaluate which contract thresholds appear undervalued for tomorrow\u2019s settlement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When analyzing data back to October 2015, the revisions have generally been marginal, averaging -0.01 alongside a median of +0.1. The highest upgrade during this period was +3.1 in August 2022 while the greatest downgrade was -6.8 in March 2020, the month when COVID-19 lockdowns started. Excluding the pandemic, the greatest downgrade during this more than nine-year period was February 2025 at -3.1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In light of the statistical relationships between initial and final reads, the ForecastEx pick of the week is the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425612%7C20250425%7C54\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>\u201d answer to the question, \u201cWill the US Consumer Sentiment Index exceed 54 in April 2025?\u201d The \u201cNo\u201d answer is priced at $0.78 for tomorrow\u2019s print, which is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET. For Team \u201cNo\u201d to lose, April\u2019s preliminary read of 50.8 would have to get upgraded to at least 54.1. An upgrade of 3.3 would be the highest adjustment during the nearly 10-year analysis period as shown in the chart below.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture10-FT.png\" alt=\"Chart showing range of revisions to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey\" class=\"wp-image-222645 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture10-FT.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture10-FT-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture10-FT-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture10-FT-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"60\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture11-FT.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-222647 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture11-FT.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture11-FT-300x29.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/60;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 24, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow\u2019s final consumer sentiment read from the University of Michigan for April is unique to many of our other economic indicator offerings because we received a preliminary print on April 11. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218988,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1576,18274],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-222644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-consumer-sentiment","tag-forecasttrader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/grocery-store-shopping-featured-img-1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=222644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/222644\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/218988"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=222644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=222644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=222644"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=222644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}