{"id":222378,"date":"2025-04-21T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-21T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=222378"},"modified":"2025-04-23T13:11:21","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T17:11:21","slug":"sold-american","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/sold-american\/","title":{"rendered":"Sold American"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

(Musical accompaniment by Kinky Friedman<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I toyed with titling today\u2019s piece \u201cFAFO\u201d[i]<\/a>, because that seems to be how global investors are treating the President\u2019s attempts to influence Federal Reserve policy, if not threatening the Fed\u2019s independence outright.  We shouldn\u2019t underestimate how important many of our institutions are to international investors. Those include a nonpartisan judiciary and a central bank that is immune to political meddling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have been expressing concern about the potential end to American exceptionalism \u2013 at least from a markets standpoint \u2013 for some time.\u00a0 In early March we joked<\/a> that Mr. Market\u2019s long-time love affair with \u201cTINA FOMO\u201d was threatened by his recent flirtation with \u201cTIA MOMO\u201d, effectively jilting the long-held idea that \u201cThere Is No Alternative\u201d to US stocks to become \u201cThere Is an Alternative\u201d, and that \u201cFear Of Missing Out\u201d had been replaced with positive momentum trends elsewhere.\u00a0 Then last week, we outlined our theory<\/a> that \u201cforeigners have been voting\u201d in US markets, and asserted that the combination of rising bond rates alongside a weaker dollar provided the evidence.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the bond market indicated a steepening yield curve rather than another flight from US bonds, major US equity indices and the dollar sold off overnight.  That continued into the market open as international investors digested Thursday\u2019s comments about Chair Powell by President Trump.  Those had made little impact as the week came to an early close, which I noted at the time (about 2pm EDT). To be fair, no one paid attention to my comments either\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But after a weekend to digest those statements and others<\/a>, global investors fretted.  Furthermore, the President launched another barrage at Powell mid-morning, calling him a \u201cmajor loser<\/a>\u201d, among other criticisms.  That led to a round of renewed selling, which should be obvious on the chart below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPX Intraday, 1-Minute Bars<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The selloff is quite broad-based, with every S&P 500 (SPX) sector trading lower at this point in the session.  NYSE decliners are outpacing advances by about 6:1, and only a handful of SPX stocks \u2013 19 to be exact, right now \u2013 are currently higher on the day.  Interestingly, tech stocks are not faring particularly worse, with the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) falling by roughly the same amount as SPX.  This is a departure from other recent selloffs when NDX markedly underperformed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I had harbored some hope that the selling would reverse once the European markets closed at 11:30 EDT.  That occurred two Fridays ago<\/a>, when a selloff ended as European investors went home for the weekend, so we will see if that applies once again this afternoon.  As of now, that does not appear to be the case, though the waves of selling have at least abated for now.  But -3% selloffs in SPX and NDX are hardly enjoyable.  We can try to blame international investors for today\u2019s sloppy markets, but their angst was generated right here in America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[i]<\/a> For those unfamiliar with that acronym, it stands for \u201cF(ool) Around and Find Out\u201d, except that it\u2019s a different four-letter F-word that I can\u2019t use here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I toyed with titling today\u2019s piece \u201cFAFO\u201d, because that seems to be how global investors are treating the President\u2019s attempts to influence Federal Reserve policy, if not threatening the Fed\u2019s independence outright.\u00a0 We shouldn\u2019t underestimate how important many of our institutions are to international investors. 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