{"id":222366,"date":"2025-04-21T13:24:03","date_gmt":"2025-04-21T17:24:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=222366"},"modified":"2025-04-22T14:41:53","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T18:41:53","slug":"forecast-contracts-fed-cuts-mayoral-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-contracts-fed-cuts-mayoral-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contracts: Fed Cuts, Mayoral Elections: April 21, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite pressure from the White House for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates at its next meeting in May, our IBKR Forecast Trader prediction market expects a hold with a high degree of confidence. Indeed, next month\u2019s Fed Funds contracts point to an <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20250507%7C4.125\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">86% chance<\/a> of a May pause. Central bank officials have recently expressed caution on stepping lower due to a possible inflationary uptick from the trade war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"60\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-7.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the Federal Reserve will set the Fund Funds rate above 4.125% at its May 7 meeting.\" class=\"wp-image-222368 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-7.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-7-300x29.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/60;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-three-cuts-in-2025\"><strong>Three Cuts in 2025<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking to year-end, however, our market projects approximately three traditional 25-basis point cuts from the Fed, bringing the key benchmark from 4.375% in the present to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20251210%7C3.375\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">3.625%<\/a> by the December 10 meeting. Meanwhile, there\u2019s a 36% chance of four cuts or more this year, and a 43% probability of two or fewer cuts. Furthermore, there\u2019s a 7% chance that the central bank will hike to a level higher than the current 4.375% by year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"386\" height=\"350\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-6.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts for fed funds rate at end of Dec. 10 meeting. \" class=\"wp-image-222369 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-6.png 386w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-6-300x272.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 386px) 100vw, 386px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 386px; aspect-ratio: 386\/350;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-san-antonio-looks-like-a-runoff\"><strong>San Antonio Looks Like a Runoff<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">South of Washington, San Antonio, Texas, has a mayoral election on May 3. But if none of the 27 candidates secure at least 50% of the votes, then another election will occur between the top two contenders on June 7. Incumbent Ron Nirenberg is ineligible to run due to him serving 4 2-year terms, hitting the 8-year total limit. Gina Ortiz Jones is the favorite in our marketplace, sporting a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=771326580%7C20250521%7C5&amp;detail=contract_details\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">40% chance<\/a> of victory. John Courage and Beto Altamirano are second and third and are among the three candidates with odds above 10%. Moreover, it looks like voters will need to hit the booths again in June to decide between Ortiz Jones and Courage. The winner is scheduled to serve a 4-year term after Proposition F, passed in 2024, changed mayoral term limits from 4 2-year terms to 2 4-year terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"52\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-6.png\" alt=\"BKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Gina Ortiz Jones will win the mayor post in 2025. \" class=\"wp-image-222370 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-6.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-6-300x25.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/52;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"546\" height=\"408\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-4.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts regarding San Antonio general election. \" class=\"wp-image-222371 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-4.png 546w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-4-300x224.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 546px) 100vw, 546px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 546px; aspect-ratio: 546\/408;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-mayor-for-pittsburgh\"><strong>New Mayor for Pittsburgh? <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A closer democratic primary race is occurring in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with elections on May 20. IBKR Forecast Traders expect Corey O\u2019Connor to replace current mayor Ed Gainey as the Democrat contender. O\u2019Connor ranks number one at the moment with a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=771326575%7C20250602%7C2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">48% chance<\/a> of victory while Gainey is at 35%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"53\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Corey O'Connor will win Pittsburgh Democratic Primary \" class=\"wp-image-222372 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-1-300x25.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/53;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"56\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Ed Gainey will win Pittsburgh Democratic Primary for Mayor. \" class=\"wp-image-222373 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-1-300x27.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/56;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-packed-week-of-contract-settlements\"><strong>Packed Week of Contract Settlements<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have a busy week of forecast contract expirations, with Singapore and Hong Kong\u2019s consumer price indices, new home sales, median new home prices, initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment and more on deck for settlement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 21, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite pressure from the White House for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates at its next meeting in May, our IBKR Forecast Trader prediction market expects a hold with a high degree of confidence. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":186448,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[53,446,850,10995,335],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-222366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-dollar","tag-federal-reserve","tag-interest-rates","tag-market-volatility","tag-trump","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) 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name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecast-contracts-fed-cuts-mayoral-elections\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecast-contracts-fed-cuts-mayoral-elections\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Forecast Contracts: Fed Cuts, 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