{"id":222307,"date":"2025-04-17T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=222307"},"modified":"2025-04-23T13:11:22","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T17:11:22","slug":"powell-confirmed-our-assertion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/powell-confirmed-our-assertion\/","title":{"rendered":"Powell Confirmed Our Assertion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Last week, in a piece entitled \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-cavalry-is-not-riding-to-the-rescue\/\">The Cavalry is Not Riding to the Rescue<\/a>\u201d, we asserted that it would not behoove investors to expect the sort of fiscal and monetary responses that enabled markets to swiftly recover from the Covid crisis.&nbsp; In yesterday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/1o_9kO0zZQg\">comments and discussion<\/a> at the Economic Club of Chicago, Federal Reserve Chair Powell confirmed that assertion.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The difference in the fiscal response remains seemingly self-evident \u2013 the current administration is actively trying to shrink the size of the federal government, not increase it further with another round of fiscal stimulus.&nbsp; I can\u2019t imagine that anyone seriously considers it a possibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The monetary response, however, seemed to be a bit more of an open question.&nbsp; In recent years, we\u2019ve become accustomed to the Fed taking measures to offset stresses in various sectors of the market.&nbsp; Thus, it\u2019s understandable why investors might expect something similar when equity markets plunge.&nbsp; Bear in mind, however, that those interventions \u2013 rate cuts, quantitative easing, and the like \u2013 occurred either during periods of low inflation (or Covid\u2019s deflation), broad market stresses that affected credit and banks (like the 2019 repo crisis or Silicon Valley Bank\u2019s failure in 2022), or both.&nbsp; None of those are occurring right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead, the Chair went out of his way to remind us that protecting equity markets is not part of the Fed\u2019s dual mandate.&nbsp; Stable prices and full employment are.&nbsp; I\u2019ve often asserted that they have a third, unwritten mandate: protecting the banking system and the credit markets upon which they depend.&nbsp; None of those directly involve stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Powell literally <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/1o_9kO0zZQg?t=1904\">responded with a chuckle<\/a> when asked if the \u201cFed Put\u201d might be invoked, then said \u201cI\u2019m going to say no with an explanation.\u201d&nbsp; That explanation included his belief that markets are processing where trade policy might land, leading to uncertainty and volatility, but that they are functioning normally.&nbsp; Our comments last week <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-cavalry-is-not-riding-to-the-rescue\/\">presaged his response<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The \u201cFed Put\u201d might still exist, but it won\u2019t be exercised unless the broad economy or the banking system requires it.&nbsp; What&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-fed-put-lives-but-its-never-been-about-stocks\/\"><strong><em>we wrote in May 2022<\/em><\/strong><\/a><em>, when some investors were hoping that the Fed would rescue a falling stock market, still holds:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Here\u2019s the real thing \u2013 the Fed has never stated that they will intervene in equity markets just because they are down.&nbsp; But they will almost certainly intervene if there is a crisis in&nbsp;<strong>credit markets<\/strong>&nbsp;that threatens the banking system or the flow of money.&nbsp; That is a huge difference \u2013 a crucial facet that equity investors need to understand.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bond and stock markets are certainly under stress, but they are operating normally.&nbsp; QED \u2013 don\u2019t expect a response like we saw in 2020.&nbsp; This is something that Powell <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/1o_9kO0zZQg?t=2804\">said somewhat explicitly<\/a> later in the discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite all this, and various other comments from the Chair about not wanting to restoke inflation, expectations remain high for cuts to the Fed Funds target.&nbsp; On ForecastEx, <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20250507%7C3.875\">we see 55% probability<\/a> that the rate will not be above 3.625% after the December FOMC meeting.&nbsp; That implies a likelihood of at least 3 rate cuts by the end of the year.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">The CME FedWatch<\/a> broadly agrees, with futures contracts implying 3-4 cuts by that time.&nbsp; How might this be possible if the Fed is at best in wait-and-see mode or even outright resistant to cutting rates?&nbsp; Either markets are delusional (which I highly doubt) or they are quite fearful of a slowdown that forces the FOMC to move.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Based upon my interpretation of Chair Powell\u2019s comments, I am concerned that the market is overpricing the Fed\u2019s willingness to move.&nbsp; It\u2019s happened before.&nbsp; Remember the 7 rate cuts that were priced for 2024.&nbsp; If that is the case, we will need to determine whether traders retain too much faith in a Fed response, hope that the inflationary response to tariffs will be minimal, or whether they have a dire economic outlook in store.&nbsp; Hopefully it\u2019s not the last outcome.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week, in a piece entitled \u201cThe Cavalry is Not Riding to the Rescue\u201d, we asserted that it would not behoove investors to expect the sort of fiscal and monetary responses that enabled markets to swiftly recover from the Covid crisis.  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