{"id":222273,"date":"2025-04-17T10:18:49","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T14:18:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=222273"},"modified":"2025-04-18T04:05:21","modified_gmt":"2025-04-18T08:05:21","slug":"high-conviction-opinion-singapore-gdp-combo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/high-conviction-opinion-singapore-gdp-combo\/","title":{"rendered":"High Conviction Opinion: Singapore GDP Combo: April 17, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The recently introduced international forecast contracts offer opportunities to investors who can use the products to correct mispricings that tend to surface in the early days of new markets. For example, a compelling slam dunk trade, in my opinion, is available for Singapore\u2019s GDP release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The country&#8217;s preliminary <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/lighter-trade-tensions-bolster-animal-spirits\/\">first-quarter GDP report<\/a> on Monday, April 14, depicted year-over-year growth of 3.8%. The revised figure, which our ForecastTrader Contract is tied to, will be released on Monday, May 12. The \u201cYes\u201d answer to the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=725452870%7C20250512%7C3.5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">contract<\/a> asking if GDP growth will exceed 3.5%, just a tad below the 3.8% estimate, costs only $0.22, which in my view offers a strong risk\/reward profile for investors when considering that I think the price should be closer to $0.50. The closest threshold to a coin-flip contract pricing happens to be all the way down at 2.3%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-3.png\" alt=\"Singapore's preliminary GDP reading was 3.8% and IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if revision will exceed 2.3% only costs $0.54\" class=\"wp-image-222275 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-3.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-3-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-3-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-3-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"133\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-222276 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-3.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-3-300x64.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/133;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, taking a look at the lower thresholds, a high-conviction directional combination trade is purchasing the \u201cYes\u201d answers on the following six thresholds at 1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.3%, 3% and 3.5% with a total cost of $3.26. If the final figure on May 12 is unchanged at 3.8% or lower at 3.7% or 3.6%, this directional combination trade would deliver $6.00 for the investor plus almost a month worth of interest-like incentive coupons with a current annualized rate of 3.83% that is applied to changing market values daily. Finally, for this trade to lose money, in consideration of a $3.26 cost, GDP would need to be 2.3% or lower, because even at 2.4%, the combo delivers $4.00 to the investor plus the interest-like incentive coupon. Folks, the path to 2.3% is incredibly narrow, in my opinion. I\u2019d put the odds below 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"584\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT-1.png\" alt=\"Chart showing pricing for IBKR ForecastTrader Contract regarding Singapore first quarter GDP\" class=\"wp-image-222277 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT-1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT-1-300x281.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/584;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 17, 2025. Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred, directional combination trades.<\/em><br><em>The 3.38% rate is a payment equivalent to interest in the form of an incentive coupon subject to variation with benchmark rates.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our recently introduced international forecast contracts offer opportunities to investors who can use the products to correct mispricings that tend to surface in the early days of new markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":221875,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[17937,19172],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-222273","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader","16":"tag-singapore-gdp","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - 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