{"id":222272,"date":"2025-04-17T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=222272"},"modified":"2025-04-22T14:49:33","modified_gmt":"2025-04-22T18:49:33","slug":"trumps-trade-war-whats-the-endgame","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/trumps-trade-war-whats-the-endgame\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s Trade War: What\u2019s the Endgame?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

While the stock market damage caused by Liberation Day and its aftermath is reparable, it may take some time to fully recover. How can investors position for more volatility?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The average stock is down 26% from its 52-week high, approaching a -2 standard deviation move, according to Strategas Research Partners.1<\/sup> That puts this stock market decline \u2014 a reaction to President Trump\u2019s Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs and China\u2019s retaliation \u2014 on par with the 1987 market crash, Long Term Capital Management failure, Dotcom bubble bursting, Global Financial Crisis, and Covid pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fifty years of market history combined with extreme negative sentiment, indiscriminate selling, and investor capitulation suggests that markets may be getting close to a bottom. But investors should consider two things before diving back into risk assets with both feet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, no US administration has ever tried to reset the world\u2019s trading system. Second, historically, lows are retested and\/or undercut 85% of the time, usually between four weeks to four months later.2<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So while the stock market damage caused by Liberation Day and its aftermath is reparable, it may take some time to fully recover. To use President Trump\u2019s metaphor, the patient has survived the surgery, but recovery could be a long, slow, and painful process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Solution in Search of a Problem<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump has been talking about America getting ripped off by its trading partners for 40 years. First it was Japan. Then it was China. And now, its everybody! Finally rid of free trade, globalists like Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn, President Trump can pursue his radical trade agenda without limits. When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants, consumers, businesses, and US trading partners are frustrated with the Trump administration\u2019s reciprocal tariffs. Investors are selling first and asking questions later. The endgame is unclear, and the goalposts are constantly moving. Is the goal of reciprocal tariffs to improve the trade deficit? Raise US government revenues? Strengthen national security? Restore manufacturing jobs? Eliminate fentanyl from entering the country? End illegal immigration? Is it all those things?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s further examine the three most identified economic goals of Trump\u2019s trade policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Improve the Trade Deficit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US has been running a trade deficit for more than 50 years, since the 1970s. Nominal US GDP in 1970 was $1.1 trillion. Today, nominal US GDP is $29.7 trillion. US GDP per capita in 1970 was $5,266 compared to $86,601 in 2024.3<\/sup> Despite a growing trade deficit, the US economy has grown substantially and living standards have increased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past 249 years, the US has transformed from an agricultural economy to an industrial economy to an innovative technology-driven services economy. The US\u2019 strength is its adaptability. Economic progress cannot be stopped or reversed. The US will not retreat to an industrial economy. The US has its challenges \u2014 but trade deficits aren\u2019t likely the cause of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Persistent trade deficits are an inescapable consequence of issuing the world\u2019s reserve currency. The US dollar accounts for 60% of global foreign exchange reserves. Yet, the US economy only contributes about a quarter of global GDP. The US dollar is bought or sold in nearly 90% of global foreign exchange transactions.4<\/sup> The US had $3.2 trillion in exports last year, but its largest export is US dollars that the rest of the world use as central bank reserves, to invest in the US stock market, and for trade settlements.5<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s a mathematical certainty that the world\u2019s reserve currency must run a deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Raise US Government Revenues<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

President Trump has often praised President William McKinley, who was first elected in 1896, for his support of high tariffs. Trump boasted in his Liberation Day comments that, \u201cFrom 1789 to 1913 we were a tariff-backed nation, and the United States was proportionately the wealthiest it has ever been.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peter Navarro, Counselor to the President of the United States and architect of Trump\u2019s trade policy, recently claimed that tariffs would raise $600 billion a year, about $6 trillion in government revenues over the next 10 years. That would imply about a 15% tariff rate on $4.1 trillion in US imports for the next decade. That is a substantial increase in the US average effective tariff rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click Here to Read More<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted April 8, 2025 – Trump\u2019s Trade War: What\u2019s the Endgame? <\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Footnotes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1<\/sup> \u201cThe Average Stock Is Already In A Bear Market,\u201d Strategas Research Partners, April 7, 2025.
2<\/sup> \u201c3 Key Conditions, Reviewing Historical Analogues: \u201962, \u201981, \u201987, ’98, & Still Long The Short-End,\u201d Strategas Research Partners, April 7, 2025.
3<\/sup> Bloomberg Finance, L.P., as of April 7, 2025.
4<\/sup> Bloomberg Finance, L.P., as of April 7, 2025.
5<\/sup> John Mauldin, The Tariff Recession?, April 5, 2025.
6<\/sup> Jared Bernstein and Dean Baker, \u201cTariffs Won\u2019t Bring a Boom in American Manufacturing.\u201d Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2025.
7<\/sup> John Mauldin, The Tariff Recession?, April 5, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclosure<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Important Risk Information<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Important Risk Information The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor\u2019s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The views expressed in this material are the views of Michael Arone through the period ended April 7, 2025, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equity securities may fluctuate in value and can decline significantly in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and State Street shall have no liability for decisions based on such information. The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without State Street Global Advisors\u2019 express written consent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AdTrax Code:<\/strong> 7833705.1.1.GBL.RTL
Expiry Date: 4\/30\/2026
\u00a9<\/sup> 2025 State Street Corporation – All Rights Reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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