{"id":222233,"date":"2025-04-16T14:03:21","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T18:03:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=222233"},"modified":"2025-04-16T14:03:51","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T18:03:51","slug":"forecast-contract-opinion-triple-range-bound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-contract-opinion-triple-range-bound\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Opinion: Triple Range Bound: April 16, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow is another busy day from a forecast contract and economic calendar perspective. Unfortunately, I don\u2019t see any compelling homeruns for this Thursday, unlike in yesterday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/tomorrow-is-forecast-contract-wednesday\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">commentary<\/a>, which identified ForecastTrader Contracts that posted strong returns in retail sales and industrial production. Nevertheless, I have identified potential base hits, because I think initial claims, building permits and housing starts will remain relatively range bound when the data is released tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. E.T.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In terms of my favorite combination trade, I like the risk\/reward profile of permits the most, followed by claims and then starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For permits, I like buying the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=712856699%7C20250417%7C1400000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yes<\/a>\u201d answer at $0.76 for the 1.40 million threshold and the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=712856699%7C20250417%7C1550000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>\u201d answer for $0.84 at the 1.55 million threshold. This trade would cost a total of $1.60 and deliver $2.00 back to the investor if both sides are correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-6.png\" alt=\"chart showing historical building permit data\" class=\"wp-image-222235 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-6.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-6-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-6-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-6-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"98\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture-2-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if building permits will exceed 1.4 million in March 2025\" class=\"wp-image-222238 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture-2-FT.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture-2-FT-300x47.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/98;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"94\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-FT-2.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if building permits will exceed 1.55 million in March 2025\" class=\"wp-image-222239 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-FT-2.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-FT-2-300x45.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/94;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, I like buying the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=658663557%7C20250417%7C1296000\">Yes<\/a>\u201d answer at $0.91 for the 1.296 million threshold and the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=658663557%7C20250417%7C1596000\">No<\/a>\u201d answer for $0.88 at the 1.596 million threshold in housing starts. This trade would cost a total of $1.79 and deliver $2.00 back to the investor if both sides are correct. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-2.png\" alt=\"Chart showing historical number of housing starts\" class=\"wp-image-222240 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-2.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-2-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-2-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-FT-2-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"97\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-2.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking is US housing starts will exceed 1,296,000 in March 2025\" class=\"wp-image-222241 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-2.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-2-300x47.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/97;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"99\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking is US housing starts will exceed 1,596,000 in March 2025\" class=\"wp-image-222242 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture6-FT-300x48.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/99;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally for claims, I like buying the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20250417%7C210000\">Yes<\/a>\u201d answer at $0.84 for the 210,000 threshold and the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20250417%7C260000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>\u201d answer for $0.91 at the 260,000 threshold. This trade would cost a total of $1.75 and deliver $2.00 back to the investor if both sides are correct.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture7-FT.png\" alt=\"Chart showing range bound nature of initial unemployment claims\" class=\"wp-image-222243 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture7-FT.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture7-FT-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture7-FT-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture7-FT-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"134\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture8-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if initial unemployment claims will exceed 210,000 during the week ended April 12, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-222244 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture8-FT.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture8-FT-300x64.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/134;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"133\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture9-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if initial unemployment claims will exceed 260,000 during the week ended April 12, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-222246 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture9-FT.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture9-FT-300x64.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/133;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In conclusion, an investor that pursues all three combinations for a total cost of $5.14, would get $6.00 back if my analysis proves correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 16, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow is another busy day from a forecast contract and economic calendar perspective.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":216611,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3093,19144,15688],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-222233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-building-permits","tag-building-starts","tag-unemployment-claims","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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