{"id":222134,"date":"2025-04-15T12:05:49","date_gmt":"2025-04-15T16:05:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=222134"},"modified":"2025-04-15T14:24:35","modified_gmt":"2025-04-15T18:24:35","slug":"tomorrow-is-forecast-contract-wednesday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/tomorrow-is-forecast-contract-wednesday\/","title":{"rendered":"Tomorrow is Forecast Contract Wednesday: April 15, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Tomorrow will be eventful from a ForecastTrader Contract and economic calendar perspective \u2013 we have retail sales and industrial production due from the states as well as an interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada (BoC). I\u2019ll go through trades that I like for two out of three below as I believe there are favorable risk-reward dynamics at play for investors. I\u2019ll also cover some of the details pertaining to tomorrow\u2019s coinflip decision by the BoC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us-retail-sales-expected-to-bounce-back\">US Retail Sales Expected to Bounce Back<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Wall Street is expecting a big recovery in last month\u2019s retail sales following two dismal months in January and February, and if shoppers didn\u2019t show up in force in March, first quarter GDP is likely to be negative. But since retail sales is heavily influenced by goods, we would need to wait until Personal Income and Outlays data arrive later in the month, since those consumer spending figures are well balanced across goods and services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turning back to retail sales, the median estimate among economists is 1.3% month over month (m\/m) and I like a directional combination trade against that backdrop starting at a contract threshold of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425591%7C20250416%7C0.4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">0.4%<\/a> all the way down to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425591%7C20250416%7C0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">0%<\/a>. Buying the \u201cYes\u201d answers on all five thresholds will cost $3.34 and pay out $5.00 if retail sales come in at 0.5% or above. The directional combo still delivers a profit on a huge downside miss, meanwhile, considering that the expectation is 1.3%. Furthermore, if the print comes in at 0.4%, the trade still profits because the four thresholds below will deliver $4.00 and the investor paid $3.34. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"109\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-5.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US retail sales growth rate in March will exceed 0.4%\" class=\"wp-image-222142 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-5.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-5-300x52.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/109;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"582\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-5.png\" alt=\"Price Schedule for IBKR ForecastTrader Contract for retail sales\" class=\"wp-image-222144 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-5.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-5-300x280.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/582;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-industrial-production-report-creates-opportunity\">Industrial Production Report Creates Opportunity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A similar directional combination trade that I like concerns the industrial production report for March. It involves buying the \u201cYes\u201d answers for contracts with year-over-year (y\/y) thresholds of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=751047561%7C20250416%7C0.5\">0.5%<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=751047561%7C20250416%7C0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">0%<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=751047561%7C20250416%7C-0.5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">-0.5%<\/a> for a total of $1.72. If the report comes in as expected at 1.1%, then the trade pays out $3.00. Even a huge downside miss at 0.6% will still pay out $3.00. Moreover, a result of 0.1% will still deliver a profit to the investor, considering he\/she paid $1.72 and will collect $2.00 from the 0% and -0.5% thresholds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3FT.png\" alt=\"Industrial production is estimated at 1.1% \" class=\"wp-image-222145 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3FT.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3FT-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3FT-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3FT-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"557\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-Ft-1.png\" alt=\"chart showing pricing for industrial production IBKR ForecastTrader contract\" class=\"wp-image-222148 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-Ft-1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture4-Ft-1-300x268.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/557;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-boc-rate-decision-is-a-toss-up\">BoC Rate Decision is a Toss Up<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Global forecasters are confounded regarding tomorrow\u2019s Bank of Canada decision. It\u2019s a 50-50 coin flip and could really go either way. But this morning\u2019s much lighter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) may justify a reduction in rates. If you think the central bank will indeed cut, then the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=726203939%7C20250416%7C2.5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">No<\/a>\u201d answer, which costs $0.50, may pay out $1.00. But if you think the institution will sit back and wait for further developments on the trade front, which could ignite inflationary pressures, then the \u201cYes\u201d answer at $0.50 is for you. This one is a close one, but if I had to choose, I would go with the \u201cNo\u201d because Canadian economic growth has been decelerating alongside the pace of inflation, allowing the governing council to step down from 2.75% to 2.5%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"101\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-1.png\" alt=\"BKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if Canada Overnight Rate target will be set above 2.5% \" class=\"wp-image-222149 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-1.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture5-FT-1-300x49.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/101;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-canada-cpi-much-lower-than-expected\">Canada CPI Much Lower than Expected<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, yesterday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/ibkr-forecasttrader-contract-opportunity-with-canada-cpi\/\">potential homerun,<\/a> directional combination opportunity on Canada\u2019s CPI, didn\u2019t work out fully, but investors that bought the \u201cYes\u201d at 2.1% and 2.3% for a total of $0.87 still made it to first base in single fashion, considering that the 2.1% \u201cYes\u201d delivered $1.00. The 2.3% didn\u2019t, however, because the CPI came in at that number, failing to exceed it. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for Images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 15, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J.Torres to highlight his preferred, directional combination trades.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow will be eventful from a ForecastTrader Contract and economic calendar perspective \u2013 we have retail sales and industrial production due from the states as well as an interest rate decision from the Bank of Canada (BoC).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":222155,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19110,527,720],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-222134","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-canada-cpi","16":"tag-gdp","17":"tag-industrial-production","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO 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