{"id":221955,"date":"2025-04-11T13:12:25","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T17:12:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221955"},"modified":"2025-04-11T15:49:45","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T19:49:45","slug":"directional-combination-forecast-trade-consumer-sentiment-final-in-13-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/directional-combination-forecast-trade-consumer-sentiment-final-in-13-days\/","title":{"rendered":"Directional Combination Forecast Trade: Consumer Sentiment Final in 14 Days: April 11, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This morning\u2019s preliminary print of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMich) led me to immediately examine our IBKR ForecastTrader prediction marketplace for favorable risk-reward opportunities. Similar to the dynamic I pointed to last month<\/a> between initial and final, the revised results generally don\u2019t deviate much from the preliminary figure. Against this backdrop and in consideration of this morning\u2019s 50.8 headline reading, I like the \u201cNo\u201d answers to contracts asking if the index will exceed 56<\/a>, 58<\/a> and 60<\/a> thresholds, which are offered at just $0.63, $0.77 and $0.83. The \u201cNos\u201d on all three thresholds would deliver $1.00 to investors if my analysis proves correct and the revised reading, for release on April 25, doesn\u2019t exceed 56. The directional combination trade costs a total of $2.23 and would pay out a total of $3.00 if correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

 Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 11, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This morning\u2019s preliminary print of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMich) led me to immediately examine our IBKR ForecastTrader prediction marketplace for favorable risk-reward opportunities. Similar to the dynamic I pointed to last month between initial and final, the revised results generally don\u2019t deviate much from the preliminary figure. Against this backdrop and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":221991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1576,19109],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-221955","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-consumer-sentiment","16":"tag-forecasttrader-contracts","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDirectional Combination Forecast Trade: Consumer Sentiment Final 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